U.S. economic rebound than expected

See the economy have a good vision

    Went to the turn of the year, expected to an important point in time. The economy is expected to be the primary, in a world of broadband Internet and modern transport links, whether it is expected the economy of a country's economy or a region, or expected around us changes in economic life, have to have a good vision. Global perspective is essential.

    The so-called global vision, vividly something is to do something like the "Google Maps" to see the earth from space. From far and near and not the opposite. Far from where onwards? Shall start from economies around the global economy. Spatial economics perspective, have a core - periphery framework, is to start from the global and regional economic core (core). What is the core of the economy? Is living in a dominant position in the global and regional economy, economies. Earlier I had said that the global economy by around three core, three were the United States, the European Union and East Asia. The three core plus total GDP accounted for more than three-quarters of the world's total economic output. The world economy is expected to have to start from these three core, Dinglao their trend. Three core, the U.S. economy is the most important, the greatest impact on the global economy, and therefore I start talking about the U.S. economy!

Better-than-expected U.S. economic

     Look at the U.S. economy. The turn of the year to see the U.S. economy a prominent impression that the better-than-expected. Beyond what is expected in mainstream economic circles expected - the beginning of the year.

    What is the good standard? In my opinion at least three:

    The first is a basic trend. U.S. GDP growth improved in recovery, employment and prices remained low. The first three quarters of 2012, GDP growth was gradual acceleration momentum from the second quarters of an era "- less than 2%, the third quarter accelerated to almost 3 times" - 2.6% (or 3.1%) , entering the fourth quarter, "three times" - more than 3% when no suspense. Does this mean? Means that the U.S. economy is once again enter the "undead" period.

    The second is economic growth motivation. Than expected by the consumer. The beginning of the second quarter of 2012, consumer confidence continued to boost record a new high since 2007, "before the crisis" November. The same period, consumer spending rose to new heights. On behalf of such a rise in retail sales in three months as of the end of November, a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, by the turn of the year Christmas shopping - New Year "hot" (shopping fever) to promote, in fact, already overweight.

    The third one can be called to resolve the economic hazards. Three hidden once worrying threat to economic recovery. The turn of the year, these hidden overcome: First commercial banks to profit from falling into the rise to substantial reduction in the case of the collapse of financial institutions. The financial crisis, the bank pushed into the abyss of disaster, and banks to improve crucial. A large area of the United States commercial banks losses increased in 2012 to win. Profit best record since 2006, closed down and filed for bankruptcy protection at least. Industry profits for the third quarter of 2012 reached $ 37.6 billion, $ 35.3 billion U.S. dollars higher than a year ago, the Department, the highest since the third quarter of 2006. In the financial crisis during the fourth quarter of 2008, the bank was a loss of $ 32 billion U.S. dollars. Not only that, the commercial banks to relax the degrees of freedom increase, particularly bullish on consumer loans, an increase of 3.2% in the third quarter a year. The fourth quarter is expected to exceed 3.5%. The second is that housing prices bottoming out. Residential prices for the first time in July 2012 rose to 2003 levels, that is, the level before the crisis in the U.S. real estate prices after the rise of the first round. Contributed to the 2012 rebound in housing prices due to the forces of supply and demand adjustments in place: on the one hand, the adjustment in place to reduce the supply and unemployment decline in the income of residents on the other hand, the increase in demand increase. Third, an increase in household wealth. This is due to two economic factors, respectively, as a rebound in prices and increase employment. The financial crisis hit the real estate, residential prices have fallen considerably lead to American households heavily in debt, the mortgage chain Bengduan. The case in 2012, house prices pick up, an increase in employment, plus the stock market rise, increased household wealth. More and more businesses and households begin to repay bank debt, a vicious cycle fade out, showing a benign trend.

    The turn of the year to see the U.S. economy, the most optimistic consumer after another, a rebound in economic growth depends mainly on the consumer rather than government stimulus, due to consumer demand constitutes 70% of the action due to U.S. economic growth, consumer-driven growth with a certain sustainability.