Abe government is the wrong road to go farther down, Japan's economic difficulties not only because of the economic stimulus will not change, but may be premature detonation of latent chronic debt crisis.
Abe Cabinet approved a 92.6 trillion yen (about $ 1.02 trillion) in the fiscal year 2013 budget draft, refresh the scale of Japan's budget again. Abe took office, advocated fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rate policy synchronization tend substantial easing "loose policy", Abe's government came to power in power direction. Not only through the debt purchase plan indefinitely, significantly promote the depreciation of the yen, more thrown a total of 20.2 trillion yen (U.S. $ 226.2 billion), a large-scale economic stimulus plan. Among them, the Japanese government will invest 10.3 trillion yen ($ 115.4 billion) in fiscal spending. According to the Cabinet Office estimates the plan will make Japan's real gross domestic product increased by about 2%.
However, Japan's economic decline is difficult to change because of the economic stimulus, Japan introduced monetary easing is farther and farther down the wrong road, not only will not solve the long-term economic deflation imbalances and declining competitiveness of the industrial structure, may also resolve the sovereign debt risk. And if the future of Japan's trade situation continues to deteriorate, the critical point of the sovereign debt crisis may be ahead of the arrival.
217%, 232%, 277%, Japan in 2009, 2012 and 2016, the proportion of its public debt relative to its nominal GDP, Japan, the world's third largest economy, is the debt under the weight gradually sinking . Horizontal comparison, whether it is the ratio of total debt to GDP, the ratio of budget deficit to GDP, or government bonds dependence Japan are the world's developed countries, the performance of the worst countries. Japan's total debt to GDP ratio than Italy in 1999, the highest in the developed world.
According to the the Japanese cabinet recently adopted fiscal 2013 draft budget, half of the budget through bond financing, the total size of 42.9 trillion yen, which makes Japan's national debt dependence to rise further. More severe, deeper rely on deficit financing bond issuance, Japanese government bonds in the past 20 years, the average annual growth rate of 40 trillion yen. Fiscal spending to further expand the tax gap is growing. More severe, deeper rely on deficit financing bond issuance, Japanese government bonds in the past 20 years, the average annual growth rate of 40 trillion yen. Fiscal spending to further expand, but the tax gap is growing continuously refreshed, and in the last three years, the countries with the highest budget in Japan.
Population aging, aging industrial, enterprise aging Japan delays the real reason to get out of the growth recession. The continued appreciation of the yen led to the manufacturing production continued to transfer abroad the (FY10 manufacturers overseas production ratio of 18% to the 2020 fiscal year overseas production ratio increased to 24%). With the rising ratio of Japanese government bonds held by overseas investors, especially the decline in Japan's domestic savings means to Japan will have to borrow money from overseas investors, the yield increased to attract more overseas investors, the cost of debt The increase in the size of Japan's debt has been difficult to control.
In order to extend the long-term "debt on debt" mode, Japan's monetary policy already lost its independence. After the beginning of this century, Japan adopted quantitative easing monetary policy, the reserve currency of more than 400 billion base money supply growth rose to 20% from the previous 10%. But at the same time, the demand gap, an aging population, as well as "liquidity trap" make Japan into a so-called "growth recession" and the formation of Japan's "low-growth, low inflation, low interest rates, a weak currency" vicious circle.
The biggest impact of the low interest rate policy is to make the yen to become a global long-term arbitrage and cheap funding currency. Japan long-term, low interest rates and the interest rates of the major countries in the international form a great spreads, this has attracted a lot of international of arbitrage speculation and investors, a large number of these speculative and investors from Japan's low-interest lending yen, investing in foreign high-yield financial products. The yen carry trade more than 10 years, the prevalence of international financial markets, one of the very famous Mrs Watanabe is a rough representation of Japan's $ 15 trillion in savings - which is the world's deepest pool of savings, valued at more than the annual economic production in the United States a. It is estimated that before the financial crisis, financing of yen carry trade scale up to hundreds of billions of dollars to trillion U.S. dollars.
After the 2008 financial crisis, the yen carry reflux tide since the unwinding transactions faced growing pressure, selling high-yield currency assets, while buying yen unwinding yen entered the continued appreciation of the channel, Japan 11 the central bank implemented quantitative easing, still had little effect. In early 2013, to combat deflation and export cliff decline, Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe is vow to quantitative easing in the end. Since Japan is a supplier of intermediate products in many countries in Asia, the sharp depreciation of the yen is likely to trigger a the contrast close trade links to national governments rebound, and exchange market intervention. Difficult to change the properties of the yen cheap financing, plus countries through competitive currency devaluation to constantly resist the sharp depreciation of the yen, therefore, the wishful thinking of the Japanese government may come to nothing, and not only up to less than the expected effect of the sharp depreciation of the yen, but will exacerbate trade the uncertainty of the situation in Japan.
Even more dangerous is, in the case of a decline in the national savings rate trends in sex, as well as trade deficit sharp deterioration in the Abe government launched without the bottom line of the stimulus policies, it may allow Japan's long-term economic recession and latency of chronic debt crisis in advance to be detonated.
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