Monday, January 7, 2013

U.S. debt ceiling welcome adjustment window government debt over 16,400,000,000,000

U.S. debt clock digital break through the $ 16.39 trillion debt ceiling, which means that if the debt ceiling is raised have not yet been realized at the end of February, the U.S. national debt may face default

Along with the parties in Congress recently reached an agreement, protracted "financial cliff" stage, the market began to shift the focus of the next issue - the debt ceiling.

EST December 31, 2012, U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican "financial cliff" to reach agreement, the mechanism of automatic fiscal spending cuts triggered delayed until March 1, temporarily avoid the U.S. financial jumping tragedy; but on the same day, the number of U.S. debt clock broke through the $ 16.39 trillion debt ceiling, which means that if the debt ceiling is raised have not yet been realized at the end of February, the U.S. Treasury bonds may face default.

The rating agency Standard & Poor's warning that, if the two parties can not reach agreement on the debt ceiling issue will continue to cut the credit rating of the U.S. Treasury; while Zero Hedge (Zero Hedge) released research reported in this issue, the Republicans will launch an attack to Obama, " This is about more long-term structural reforms, and is an important starting point for Republicans forced the government to cut spending on this issue, the Republicans will not give in easily.

Wave has not yet fully been resolved, another, U.S. bond yields go up, beyond the current biennium and the following relatively short-term varieties, long-term bond yields have varying degrees of increase.

Debt ceiling forthcoming adjust?

As of this press time, beating the U.S. national debt clock digital has broken through the $ 16.43 trillion, more than the limit of $ 16.39 trillion in 2011 raised the debt ceiling, again raised the debt ceiling to become the new focus of the game by the two parties.

December 31, 2012, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the government will, through a series of accounting measures to avoid defaulting on its debt, "These measures will be able to save $ 200 million in expenses, this part of the funds to ensure that the Government two months within not breach. " The same day, the United States Department of the Treasury also suspended the release of the two-year note.

Goldman Sachs recently released research report pointed out that the agreement to raise the debt limit must be reached before March 1. March 1 is also the "financial cliff" completely solve the deadline, if, before that, the two parties have not yet financial cliff further agreements, reduction mechanism will be triggered automatically.

"Now look, the U.S. Treasury will be depleted in March 1 all financing capacity, since March 1, the Ministry of Finance will have to pay a series of monthly settlement payments, especially related to social security and medical insurance plans payments. Parliament will have to raise the debt ceiling before the deadline if you can not successfully raise the debt ceiling, which will impact on the U.S. Treasury to pay interest or redemption of government bonds, may also lead to a substantial decline in fiscal spending. "Goldman pointed out.

However, compared with the last time to raise the debt ceiling, Goldman Sachs believes that this difficulty is much larger. Last raised the debt ceiling in exchange - 10 years to cut $ 2.1 trillion in government spending, these mainly to financial freedom congressional appropriations spending cuts did not affect the specific government projects; last time just to set the overall level of spending the ceiling, so it does not encounter the opposition of the political groups, but now this space has been completely does not exist. "

Newly appointed spokesman of the United States House of Representatives, Republican Congressman John Boehner (John Boehner) has publicly said that "raising the debt ceiling of $ 1 to cut fiscal spending of $ 1."

Triggered deadline, according to Goldman Sachs estimates that the debt ceiling for each one-year extension, the need to raise about $ 1 trillion debt ceiling level, which makes the $ 1 trillion is the most obvious target in the next round of bipartisan deficit reduction negotiations. Senate Minority Whip, Republican leader John holes Ning (John Cornyn) and even boasted to allow the government to temporarily shut down in order to force the Democratic Party to make concessions on the issue of spending cuts, "Perhaps the part of the government should be allowed to be closed to ensure the long-term fiscal health, reduce government spending avoid repeating the mistakes of Greece, Italy and Spain. President Obama should be aware of this possibility is real. "

However, Obama said publicly that he will not be negotiations on spending cuts as part of the raised the debt ceiling; does not raise the debt ceiling and Republicans negotiations next cut spending policies.

Market concerns warming

Uncertainties affect the debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury yields began quietly "warming".

According to the U.S. Treasury website data, the United States for three years and three years or more long-term bond yields started to rise. December 31, 2012, the ten-year bond yields in the United States was 1.7%, but U.S. Treasury bonds hit $ 16.39 trillion debt ceiling on the same day evening, the second day of the opening it all the way to jump the ten-year bond yields rose to 1.86 %, after two days reached a high of 1.92% and 1.93%; such other period as the long-term bond yields also broad based trend.

To this end, Goldman Sachs warned U.S. debt investors may face the risk of 'lost clothes'. Because this week, U.S. bond yields have started to rise, if you return to historical levels of 3%, then the price of long-term government bonds is likely to plummeting

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