2013 euro area back to life?

Early look at the EU and the euro area economy, can be considered: the worst is in the past, at least that can not be bad, 2013 is expected back from the dead!

    "After the crisis," Dynasty, the piece of economic trouble up, but also to global investors and traders most gripping. In fact, the beginning of the fourth quarter until the end of the third quarter of 2012, is still difficult to see how much a survivor of the EU economy turn for the better, however nowadays most of that piece of the economy seems to be entering the twists and turns of the track, 3 to 4 quarter of 2013 expected back from the dead!

     The two trends herald rejuvenate turn: a sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone countries to endure a very tough battle, there are signs to come to an end. At least three flags in this regard:

    One is a mechanism to prevent the spread of the debt crisis in Europe, the euro area initially formed. The core of this mechanism is the European Stability Fund (ESM), support indebted countries austerity. The core members of the 700 billion euros fund, jointly provided indeed played a stabilizing role. Fund to eat "reassurance" to creditors no longer have to worry about high debt edge members deadbeat. In turn led to some kind of virtuous circle mechanism: high debt edge members continue to issue bonds to fund-raising costs down, you can continue to issue new debt and old debt "play" to reduce the debt, and then through the budget shrink.

    The second is the the eurozone austerity recession leads gentle much short duration seems to have much more than expected. Earlier dominance is expected to be substantial tightening of fiscal policy implemented by the edge of the country in exchange for a core member of the rescue fund, will push the euro zone into a serious recession, the long-term fix will lead to social unrest and recession. Now appears that austerity leads Eurozone recession is far from the expected severe GDP contraction in 2012 about half a percentage point, almost "zero growth". The majority is expected to decline by 1-3 percentage points. In fact, the German economy, the euro area "Tai Zhuzi only weak contraction until the fourth quarter, it is expected that the beginning of the year can be converted to the expansion.

    The third is the edge of the country's bond yields from up to down, financing costs began to decline. The debt is absolutely the largest Spanish government bond yields down more than 2 percent. At the same time, the commercial banking sector in the euro area has turned the corner.

The above trends together, no doubt inspired the expected reversal of the economic sector of the economic outlook in the euro area, the pessimist day less optimist increasing. Recently organized by the Davos World Economic Forum, a hot topic in the European debt crisis "in the past"! All this, in raising the EU domestic and foreign investors' confidence in the euro bonds. Economic theory and economic reality have repeatedly shown that a expected to strengthen and as more and more investors are recognized, really becomes reality. The state of the euro zone economy nowadays and expected, and indicates the bond market back to life. Actually existing hedge funds in action!

View of the above viewpoint, to a timing can be considered hunters Euro bond market!

     Of course, objectively, the the aforementioned euro zone and the EU back to life the key, depending on the performance of the economy in the next two quarters. Currently, there are actually a contest between government debt restructuring and economic growth performance and prospects for debt restructuring Ye Hao, policy tightening effect Hao, all hope as soon as possible whether out of the contraction of the shadow. If the economy is able to quickly break through negative growth, even a few tenths of a percent growth expected will greatly strengthen the euro zone economy back to life!

Early 2012, I have said that the European economy is not as bad as the outside world the impression of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone have saved. Once encountered the a better criticism across the ocean Xiaxiang. Even in Germany never know readers posting gave as "child care"! Looking back now, the actual evolution and I had not expected difference between up and down. This time I do point bold prediction, I believe it will be pretty close!