The global economy with the Department of the change in the situation, the chaos and puzzle, systemic risk has gradually release, but the tail risk of sovereign debt crisis is still exposed to future global financial run three major trends:
First, the central bank "alienation" to promote the long-term, low interest rates and debt monetization trend
December 13, the Federal Reserve during the year last meeting on interest rates dropped a bombshell, the Fed announced the expansion of the scale of the asset purchase of $ 45 billion to launch the fourth round of quantitative easing (QE4) monthly purchasing $ 45 billion of treasury bonds instead of twisted action (OT), plus QE3 the Fed monthly asset purchases totaling $ 85 billion, the Federal Reserve has been suffering from a serious dependency syndrome "QE".
In fact, the Fed endless quantitative easing is the epitome of the central banks in developed countries. The logic of the major central banks in Europe and the United States after 2008, is a re-definition of the central bank and financial relations, this redefined actually allow the central bank to embark on a road "to independence". Observation of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England's quantitative easing or quasi-quantitative easing its monetary policy objectives have been clearly becomes, struggling to maintain the precarious government debt cycle.
The quantitative easing essence of debt monetization. From a global perspective, the government debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to the highest level in decades: AAA sovereign rating worldwide, including the United States, the so-called "security government after another losing AAA rating, the highest sovereign rating camp developed countries, amounting to only a handful. With four consecutive years of more than one trillion mark for the fiscal year 2012, the U.S. budget deficit, the U.S. federal government debt has soared to $ 16 trillion. Over the past decade, the growth in the total size of U.S. debt by 5.3 trillion to $ 16 trillion, more than tripled. The speed of growth to the present day an increase of $ 3.5 billion of new debt, the total debt of the U.S. government in 2015 will exceed 20 trillion mark.
The latest data show that of the European Commission, the euro zone debt ratio in 2011 reached 87.3%, a record high, average debt has reached 37,700 euros. Ireland, Italy and Greece-age workers per capita debt is the highest level in the euro area, were € 55,000, € 48,000 and € 47,000. Although lower than the above-mentioned three countries, such as France and Germany per capita debt but were as high as 40,000 euros and 39,000 euros respectively, are higher than € 37,700 European average.
Look at Japan, is the ratio of total debt to GDP ratio of budget deficit to GDP or national debt dependence, one of the worst countries in Japan are the world's developed countries. The data show that, as of the end of 2011, Japan's total national debt, including government bonds, borrowings and short-term government securities, including a total of 919.1511 trillion yen, breaking the previous record reached twice the GDP. Burden ¥ 7,216,000 per Japanese population.
Developed countries generally through long-term, low interest rates or quantitative easing way to reduce the debt burden, which embarked on a road of debt monetization, but the central bank alienation trend will bring three major issues: First, the long-term extreme loose monetary environment to cover up a potential balance sheet problems, due to the extremely loose monetary policy to the United States on behalf of the sovereign debt cost at historic lows, lower interest costs of the newly issued debt, which weakened the willingness of the government for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, fiscal sustainability The problem has been delayed, the impact of long-term macroeconomic and financial stability.
The second is a long and extremely loose monetary policy may distort financial markets price system. The long-term bond yields is an important indicator of economic decision-making, artificially lower long-term interest rates and financial market risk spreads massive Treasury purchases distort market signals, resulting in the mismatch of resources.
Is the debt monetization greatly dilute the interests of creditors, resulting in something long-term imbalance in the distribution of wealth. By the end of 2011, developing countries reserve assets amounted to $ 7 trillion, most of these reserves to invest in sovereign bonds in the form of U.S. Treasury bonds or other low-income, equal to the debt financing for the developed countries, long-term debt monetization bound to serious erosion creditors assets and financial interests.
Second, the international short-term capital flows and long-term capital flow differentiation trend
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, international capital mobility patterns significantly change, not only the factors of cyclical factors, there are structural factors and disturbance factors. Developed countries join forces once again the quantitative easing spillovers begun gradually emerging economies continued nearly a year of short-term capital outflow into a new round of short-term capital inflows. In fact, the situation in the U.S. domestic bond yields lower, the stock market is the second round of the quantitative easing policy favorable advance overdraft, the slow recovery of the real economy, the future, most of the monetary funds by profit-driven commodity markets may flow to higher investment income and emerging market countries, but due to the sovereign debt crisis in developed countries protracted global economic rebalancing process to accelerate, as well as factors such as the reduction of emerging-market rate of return on capital, long-term industrial capital of the emerging economies, massive net inflow situation is facing a turning point.
The medium to long term, the main factors to affect international capital flows are taking place in the trend of change, economic globalization in the past over-consumption and over-borrowing, excessive benefits the excessive export imbalance in the relationship is to be broken: the sovereign debt crisis in developed countries are opening a protracted "deleveraging" process, which will lead to continued reflux of the overseas capital, as the capital-exporting country the United States is "re-industrialization" strategy to accelerate the reorganization of the global industrial chain to promote industrial capital return, the global large-scale capital flows to emerging economies body may be the trend is quietly changed, short-term capital and long-term capital differentiation trend is likely to become the norm.
Third, the global financial market turmoil will present "passivation" trend
2013 market level of risk compared to 2012 decreased, the relative reduction of uncertainty. European debt crisis dawn, with the official start of the EU permanent aid fund - the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the European sovereign bond market may have been the worst period in the past. ESM can be seen as the prototype of the Ministry of Finance of European unification through the fiscal constraints of the euro zone countries, to achieve the financial transfer payment of the creditor countries of the debtor countries, to achieve the purpose of rescue debtor countries. We believe that to promote banking and fiscal union in Europe is moving in the right direction, but still many differences and frustrations the Eurozone core area and peripheral areas of the economy will continue to differentiate, growth is likely to remain weak. Risk appetite in the short term is difficult to reverse the fundamental, the Fed put excess money supply may be less than the market demand for the dollar, the dollar remains relatively phased strong is a high probability event, limited space for emerging market currencies against the dollar.
In addition, differences in national economic recovery, the spillover effects of the macroeconomic policies of different countries, and changes in capital flows will bring to the global financial markets new adjustment and unrest. Looking forward to 2013, despite the short-term risk is likely to continue, but the big systemic risk has begun to gradually release compared to the extent of the global financial market turmoil in 2011 and 2012, will appear in the "passivation" trend.
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