The dollar on Friday experienced shot up after the fall of U.S. $ short time facing adjustment, but we should pay attention to the long-term direction of the dollar rose unchanged from $ 2008 a long period of consolidation, with a large range of the U.S. dollar and low of the United States for four consecutive years of consolidation may be the big bull market, we combine the economy of the United States to analyze the United States there are a lot of foreign debt, the course Americans through the continuous devaluation to stimulate exports, at the same time through a loose monetary policy to stimulate the economy, while a large number of loan money to get by, Do Americans to borrow money without also do not I think must also, but how also, the Americans are not stupid, why Americans dare a lot of other countries can not print money, mainly because the status of the decision of the U.S. dollar, all the world's economic and trade is settled in U.S. dollars, international debt is in U.S. dollars, there is no currency instead of dollars, only gold, but gold mostly in the hands of the United States, the dollar devalued by a lot of foreign debt, which is normal, and the United States in the next three years through the continuous pulled dollars and then pay the debt, so the value of the appreciation of the beneficial conversion of the currencies of other countries, a few years ago by the debt through dollar the appreciation may be as long as also 80% on the debt does not require 100% repayment of currency appreciation, which is on the one hand, four consecutive years of loose monetary policy is good for the U.S. economy, the United States is the country of import, when the dollar's appreciation in favor of imports, the U.S. economy turns for the better good appreciation in real estate, the only house stock rose Americans and dare the message Western consumer attitudes, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar is conducive to debt, the dollar's rise is reasonable. At the same time, the dollar rose for the U.S. loss, because the Americans already short gold, gold started to decline since 1900, Americans short of gold, do more than U.S. $, so then waiting for the U.S. dollar rose to the head of the American dollar into gold, so the Americans in the gold buy low sell high earn a lot of money at the same time, the United States by the occasion of the appreciation of the dollar to pay off the debt. This is the United States.
12 seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population increased by 15.5 million people, is expected to increase to 15.0 million; amended in November increased by 16.1 million people, the initial value increased by 14.6 million people; amended in October, an increase of 13.7 million people, the initial increase 138,000. Overall, the monetary policy of the Fed follow-up select certainly will not make a significant adjustment because of the employment data. How labor market performance in the first quarter of 2013 will likely become a priority. Given that the U.S. fiscal cliff this time bomb has been lifted, the recovery of the U.S. economic fundamentals will bring stability to promote good employment.
Two Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Friday (January 4) hinted that the Fed may stop buying assets this year. Another survey shows that the majority of Wall Street's top financial institutions, analysts hold the same view. St. Louis Fed President Bullard (James Bullard), said that if the U.S. economic situation has improved, the Fed will begin to consider in 2013 to stop the large-scale asset purchases. He even hinted that the unemployment rate of 7.1% is a target. Brad said 2013 years the U.S. economy has always been the strong performance of the U.S. Federal Reserve when it is necessary to suspend further large-scale easing; And if the U.S. economy is underperforming in the current year, then the Fed is likely to need to continue in the 2014 purchase of debt . Brad also pointed out that the Fed's easing measures may reduce the unemployment rate to 7 percent, you can begin to consider gradually be lifted.
In the December 2012 meeting statement, the Fed pointed out that, as long as the unemployment rate higher than 6.5%, the rate of inflation in the next one or two years higher than the 2% long-term goal of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not more than 0.5 percent, 0-0.25% of ultra-low interest rate policy will not change. The Philadelphia Fed Xipuluosuo (Charles Plosser) said on Friday, at the end of 2013, when the overall unemployment rate in the U.S. is expected to fall to 6.8-7.0%. Pu Luosuo pointed out that the Fed is bound to continue to buy debt that is gradually stop before the unemployment rate down to 6.5% "threshold" level. This means that he predicted the Fed may stop asset purchase. The United States in December last year, the unemployment rate was 7.8%.
Bank of England interest rate decision, the Bank of England on Thursday (January 10) will be as usual, convened rate decision. From the point of view of the market mainstream, almost no suspense to keep interest rates unchanged. For the forecast expansion of quantitative easing, most economists tend to the Bank of England will continue to do anything in the first month of 2013, to wait for more economic data guidelines
ECB meeting and press conference on Thursday (January 10), the European Central Bank meeting and a press conference will also be re-opened the curtain. In 2012, the foreign exchange market is the largest "manipulator" European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will beautifully. A factor that investors are more concerned about is the Draghi whether to disclose any of the European Central Bank will cut interest rates further implied in this press conference. View from several speeches in the past, the European Central Bank clearly there cut space to cope with the unpredictable tail risk. But still not sure when to use this trick trick. Overall, the current response to market speculation that choose to "play ball" is likely to become the best choice for Draghi. If he accidentally revealed the implied interest rate cut, the euro short-term or will suffer significantly suppressed. Spreads factors and economic fundamentals in Europe and America, the difference will become significant weakness in the Euro 2013 "Gate of Life".
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