Imagine the oil world what will happen when Americans no longer imported oil? Global capital flows What happens? What will happen to the dollar? The geopolitical and what will happen? I believe that this is the largest financial market in the world in the next decade one of the three stories, and the distribution of its wealth, energy revolution, transportation to bring far-reaching impact.
Since the end of World War II, the United States became a net oil importing country, the need to account for 1/4 of the global oil trade, the U.S. position in the oil market can be described as pivotal.
However, an energy revolution is in full swing in North America. The scale of U.S. oil imports have been reduced to less than 10 million barrels from a peak of 20 million barrels per day,. This figure in the next few years will plummet, the International Energy Agency estimated that the U.S. will achieve oil self-sufficiency in 2035, I believe that the United States could become a net exporter of oil in 2022-2025 to.
In fact, conventional oil production in the United States itself is relatively stable, the current daily production of 810 million barrels, is expected to rise to 11 million barrels in 2020, followed by a slow fall. The change of the pattern of energy production in the United States, driven by the non-conventional energy. In 2020, oil production accounted for only 22% of the energy production in the United States, the remaining 78% comes from natural gas, unconventional oil and unconventional gas. Unconventional oil and unconventional natural gas from scratch, 60 percent of the entire energy production in the United States is expected to be accounted for in 2020.
The sudden emergence of shale gas production, the first elements of the changing pattern of U.S. energy production. Exploitation of unconventional natural gas in North America geographical environment technology has matured, and to quantify production gradually expand, is growing rapidly. But also due to a substantial decline in prices, new energy products in the U.S. market has been rapidly open. Has exceeded oil production of unconventional natural gas to the energy calculation, to become the largest U.S. energy supply source.
Light tight oil (light tight oil) led by unconventional oil, is another factor to change the U.S. energy landscape. Light tight oil production the horizontal mining and hydraulic fracturing technology, shale gas production technology of the same strain. Technological breakthroughs, so unheard of ten years ago, most people the energy conventional oil may be more than in 2020, to become the second-largest U.S. energy supply source.
At the same time, the energy-saving technologies and energy-saving regulations will be in a few years, significant compression U.S. demand for oil. The bio-oil, is another alternative energy elements. Once mature commercial technology, transportation and distribution channels fluent changes tend to be more violent than expected, faster, and its commercial applications of space often than originally imagined broader.
I predict that by 2020, the U.S. energy market will be conventional oil, a quarter of the world, the era of unconventional oil, conventional gas, unconventional gas, in which the proportion of non-conventional energy higher than conventional energy. United States beyond Russia in 2015 to become the world's largest natural gas-producing countries; beyond Saudi Arabia in 2017, to become the world's biggest oil-producing countries. American oil self-sufficiency will be reached in 2025, then became a net exporter of oil.
If the United States no longer need to import oil, which the world does that mean?
First, the sharp appreciation of the dollar. In the U.S. trade deficit, net oil imports accounted for 40%. Petroleum energy supplies from overseas toward domestic trade items bound for the United States to bring about structural changes inflection point for the troubled U.S. economy, finance, trade deficit, at least half solved. Dollar into the medium-and long-term appreciation of the track, is not surprised. In fact, in the now "worse than" the game, once a currency improving fundamentals, appreciation is not difficult.
Secondly, the redistribution of wealth. U.S. oil import demand change, and whether it will lead to oil prices plunged, is uncertain, depending on the increase in the demand of the emerging markets (especially China, India). I tend to believe that oil prices will fall. China's oil demand will continue to rise, but the period of the most rapid increase in the past may have been. Indian demand story, or the prophecy on paper. Weakening oil prices petrodollars of the Middle East is bound to a shock threat to public expenditure for the excessive expansion of the oil countries, wealth is transferred to the United States by the emerging countries, capital flows also change.
Furthermore, alternative energy is facing re-shuffling. Oil prices above $ 100, gave birth to the solar, wind and other alternative energy sources. A considerable part of these alternative energy subject to the constraints of the technology, market, pipeline and other factors, commercial applications are still difficult part of the enterprises in the after government subsidies boom, even pressure on cash flow. If the price of oil fell to $ 70 a barrel, most alternative energy independent living space will be lost.
Finally, geopolitical ecological change. U.S. police in the Middle East, where conflict and reconciliation for their own interests dominate. Today, U.S. oil imports from the Middle East has accounted for only 17% of its total imports (43% in China), and the small collected from the Canadian imports, even after five years may be lower than 10% (more oil imports from Brazil). Decreased significantly in the strategic position of the United States and the national interests in the Middle East. The next time the United States suffered greater casualties or setbacks in the Middle East, may shrink its military presence in the local. "Ten years later, in the Strait of Hormuz cruise should be Chinese warships, instead of U.S. warships," a U.S. State Department official says.
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