From 1990, Japan became the tragedy of the country, after the collapse of the bubble, could not keep up with the IT era, smart pace with the times, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the continuation of extremely loose monetary policy, the yen-dollar exchange rate is climbing.
Two ways to combat Japan, though not necessarily intentional, the effect is the odd good.
The first is financial warfare. On October 30, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly decided to expand the existing asset purchase program to 11 trillion yen, a total of 91 trillion yen more than the market expected the purchase plan.
The reason why the Bank of Japan to continue to expand the scale of the asset purchase, for two reasons: First, to help Japan's economy leaves crunch quagmire. Bank of Japan to their 2012-2013 fiscal year GDP growth forecast down to 1.5% from 2.2%, the 2013-2014 fiscal year down to 1.6% from 1.7%. Japan 2012-2013 fiscal year, the core consumer price index (CPI) forecast down from 0.2% to -0.1% in the 2013-2014 fiscal year CPI forecast down to 0.4% from 0.7%. Seen the Japanese economy is in a crunch, the Bank of Japan, the first step is to find ways of quantitative easing, CPI restored to 1%.
Second, the suppression of the rising yen, for the major exporter in Japan, the yen is rising in the economic downturn, is unacceptably high. The U.S. dollar against the yen from 125 yen in mid-2007 to U.S. $ 1, the way to rise to around 75 yen to one U.S. dollar, rising 40%. With the currency rising at the same time, Japan's exports a bumpy, and then all the way down.
No wonder, in the IMF and World Bank annual meeting on October 14 this year, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Bank of Japan governor Baichuan Wen Ming recessive dispute. Bernanke defend the loose U.S. monetary policy, said in Tokyo loose U.S. monetary policy will not only help accelerate the recovery of the U.S. economy, stimulate consumption and growth at the same time help to support the global economy. "Masaaki Shirakawa warned, should beware of ultra-loose monetary policy in developed economies "indirect damage" caused by other economies. He said: "With the deepening of globalization, any responsible policy-makers can not be denied that the policy spillover and feedback effects." Hinted the Bank of Japan, even without the support of the United States and other Western countries, Japan will introduce separate measures intervention The appreciation of the yen. Now, they imply transformed into real action.
Taking into account the very firm determination to the European debt crisis is not resolved, the United States inhibition of the currency appreciation, the yen short-term fluctuations, can not change the yen to continue at a high level fact. For Japan, standing above the crowd.
Followed by real economic war. Japan's export-led economy is facing unprecedented challenges.
Industry Injury Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce released the "2011 White Paper on Japanese manufacturing in the first quarter of 2009, Japan's foreign trade volume increasing trade surplus in the first quarter of 2011. Affected by a major earthquake in Japan in the second quarter of 2011, trade deficit to a surplus again until June 2011 and July. From the point of view of Japan's main export, compared with October 2007, no matter which industry were not rebounded to the level then the the bad transport machinery, and electrical machinery exports rebounded to 70%. Global investment declined in 2009 and 2010, compared with Japanese manufacturing companies, in 2010, the amount of Japanese investment in Asia, significantly increase the income of Japanese manufacturing companies gradually improved: before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. compared to the quarter before the outbreak of a major earthquake, the fourth quarter of 2010, Japanese manufacturing enterprises recurring revenue growth of 11.8%, sales fell 9.7%, recurring revenue increased more than the rate of decline in sales for the first time.
Unfortunately, did not last long. Toyota recalls door event from the beginning in 2009, the Japanese automobile engine suddenly stall the global leading edge is no longer obvious: In 2010, Toyota about 8,418,000 cars sold worldwide, ranked first; common global sales of nearly 8.39 million cars, ranked second; German Volkswagen ranked third in global sales of 7.14 million. 2011, General Motors regain the sales champion lost in 2008, global sales of $ 9,026,000, more than any other car firms announced or expected annual sales, less than three years after the bankruptcy protection in 2009, GM will once again become the world's highest-selling car prices, and continued up to 77 years of championship glory. The first three quarters of this year, Toyota to 7.4 million won, General Motors and Volkswagen, nearly 7 million, but by the impact of the Diaoyu Island incident, the massive decline in sales of Toyota cars in China.
The increase in sales of the Asian market is one of the main factors to enhance the performance of Toyota overseas, the Toyota two major markets in North America and China, the 2010 Toyota in the Chinese market, sales increased by 19%, to 846,000 this year plummeted. Different ways according to statistics, two Toyota data expressed slightly different: the data revealed by the of its executives outward media, Toyota sold about 50,000 vehicles in China in September this year, compared to about 86,000 vehicles in September last year, a year-on-year a decrease of approximately 40%. Second to the data released by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Toyota September sales of 44,100 vehicles, an plummeted 48.9%, the third quarter sales in China to 197,700 vehicles, down 23% year-on-year.
Not only that, the 2011 trade statistics released by the Japanese Finance Ministry initial value 2.4927 trillion yen in Japan (1 yuan or about 12 yen) trade deficit in 2011, the first half of fiscal year 2012 (the month of April -9) Japan, the amount of 3.2190 trillion yen ($ 40.6 billion), a record trade deficit. Exports 32.1603 trillion yen ($ 405.2 billion), down 2%, a decrease of 16.1% and 8.2%, respectively, of the same period in Japan's exports to the EU and China. Japanese exports can hardly be optimistic, the decline almost equal to the time of the oil crisis, stagflation in 7.80 years of the last century.
If Japan and the United States jointly make further stimulate action, exports to Japan will be more detrimental harmless the United States, because the United States imports of manufactured goods from China, which is part of the product is already in the process of transformation.
Are controlled by others, an independent country, economic, diplomatic, military and domestic sharp cry inciting populist, is a typical symbol of the decline. Regression Japan's voice of reason, to be in tune with the surrounding area, in order to increase the depth of the economy.
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