Analysis of the international economic situation in 2013

Looking to 2013, the international economic situation, mixed, overall will be better than 2012. Can be summed up in a few words: the United States a full recovery, the European debt crisis is bottoming out, emerging economies are still difficult and increases the risk of Japan. Specific analysis is as follows:

   United States. U.S. fiscal cliff just a false alarm, tax cuts continues, will also raise the deficit ceiling. The end of December 2012, the United States will once again in the global attention by monetary easing out of the woods. The financial cliff resolved, the U.S. economic situation will Yimapingchuan. The first half of 2013, the dollar depreciation trend will continue. The second half of the year, with the recovery of the real economy, real estate strong pick up, the increase in personal consumption, will attract large-scale international investment flows into the U.S. dollar started to rise, so as to promote the comprehensive recovery of the U.S. economy.

   The euro zone. The European debt crisis bottomed out in the first half of 2013. The early resignation of Italian Prime Minister to Spain a few strokes maturity of the debt, the French private debt risk of the release of bad events occurred prior to mid-2013. These things occur, the worst day of the European debt crisis would pass. With the election results of the 2013 German Chancellor dust settles, the euro zone economy will enter a slow recovery phase. Of course, this is a long and painful process. European welfare policy, the management mechanism of the euro zone, the economic recovery in the euro area have to face and solve the problem.

   Emerging economies. Emerging economies in 2013 will still be more difficult. Slow growth and inflation will exist. Make emerging economies external demand for long-term weakness of the European economy in the doldrums and the U.S. trade protection. Resource prices, rising labor costs and competitiveness of emerging economies will weaken. While slow growth, resource prices, rising labor costs in turn promote the domestic price increases. With the continued monetary easing in the United States and other developed countries, imported inflationary pressure in emerging economies has continued to exist. Emerging economies in 2013 will be slightly better than in 2012, but overall, it would be more difficult. Among them, China due to the transformation of the earlier, coupled with urbanization pulling, the soft landing will succeed. Relative to other emerging economies, is more optimistic.

   Japan. Liberal Democratic Party's election victory, marking the risk of the Japanese economy is on the rise. Liberal Democratic Party in "reviving the economy" as a slogan to win elections, but the Japanese economy in order to quickly revival is easier said than done. Japanese economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant leak and other events on the Japanese economy in 2011 has not yet been eliminated. The aging population, high sovereign debt issues facing Asian countries economic sanctions, and also a great impact on its economic development. Shinzo Abe inflation target raised twice tantamount to a gamble Originally economic development on the lack of power, but instead want to force development through devaluation. The Japanese politics utilitarian forcing Abe had to gamble once handled properly, the Japanese economy into a prolonged recession.