Friday, December 28, 2012

Japan sold by the United States for the United States to count the money

From 1990, Japan became the tragedy of the country, after the collapse of the bubble, could not keep up with the IT era, smart pace with the times, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the continuation of extremely loose monetary policy, the yen-dollar exchange rate is climbing.

    Two ways to combat Japan, though not necessarily intentional, the effect is the odd good.
    The first is financial warfare. On October 30, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly decided to expand the existing asset purchase program to 11 trillion yen, a total of 91 trillion yen more than the market expected the purchase plan.

    The reason why the Bank of Japan to continue to expand the scale of the asset purchase, for two reasons: First, to help Japan's economy leaves crunch quagmire. Bank of Japan to their 2012-2013 fiscal year GDP growth forecast down to 1.5% from 2.2%, the 2013-2014 fiscal year down to 1.6% from 1.7%. Japan 2012-2013 fiscal year, the core consumer price index (CPI) forecast down from 0.2% to -0.1% in the 2013-2014 fiscal year CPI forecast down to 0.4% from 0.7%. Seen the Japanese economy is in a crunch, the Bank of Japan, the first step is to find ways of quantitative easing, CPI restored to 1%.

    Second, the suppression of the rising yen, for the major exporter in Japan, the yen is rising in the economic downturn, is unacceptably high. The U.S. dollar against the yen from 125 yen in mid-2007 to U.S. $ 1, the way to rise to around 75 yen to one U.S. dollar, rising 40%. With the currency rising at the same time, Japan's exports a bumpy, and then all the way down.

    No wonder, in the IMF and World Bank annual meeting on October 14 this year, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Bank of Japan governor Baichuan Wen Ming recessive dispute. Bernanke defend the loose U.S. monetary policy, said in Tokyo loose U.S. monetary policy will not only help accelerate the recovery of the U.S. economy, stimulate consumption and growth at the same time help to support the global economy. "Masaaki Shirakawa warned, should beware of ultra-loose monetary policy in developed economies "indirect damage" caused by other economies. He said: "With the deepening of globalization, any responsible policy-makers can not be denied that the policy spillover and feedback effects." Hinted the Bank of Japan, even without the support of the United States and other Western countries, Japan will introduce separate measures intervention The appreciation of the yen. Now, they imply transformed into real action.

    Taking into account the very firm determination to the European debt crisis is not resolved, the United States inhibition of the currency appreciation, the yen short-term fluctuations, can not change the yen to continue at a high level fact. For Japan, standing above the crowd.

    Followed by real economic war. Japan's export-led economy is facing unprecedented challenges.

    Industry Injury Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce released the "2011 White Paper on Japanese manufacturing in the first quarter of 2009, Japan's foreign trade volume increasing trade surplus in the first quarter of 2011. Affected by a major earthquake in Japan in the second quarter of 2011, trade deficit to a surplus again until June 2011 and July. From the point of view of Japan's main export, compared with October 2007, no matter which industry were not rebounded to the level then the the bad transport machinery, and electrical machinery exports rebounded to 70%. Global investment declined in 2009 and 2010, compared with Japanese manufacturing companies, in 2010, the amount of Japanese investment in Asia, significantly increase the income of Japanese manufacturing companies gradually improved: before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. compared to the quarter before the outbreak of a major earthquake, the fourth quarter of 2010, Japanese manufacturing enterprises recurring revenue growth of 11.8%, sales fell 9.7%, recurring revenue increased more than the rate of decline in sales for the first time.

    Unfortunately, did not last long. Toyota recalls door event from the beginning in 2009, the Japanese automobile engine suddenly stall the global leading edge is no longer obvious: In 2010, Toyota about 8,418,000 cars sold worldwide, ranked first; common global sales of nearly 8.39 million cars, ranked second; German Volkswagen ranked third in global sales of 7.14 million. 2011, General Motors regain the sales champion lost in 2008, global sales of $ 9,026,000, more than any other car firms announced or expected annual sales, less than three years after the bankruptcy protection in 2009, GM will once again become the world's highest-selling car prices, and continued up to 77 years of championship glory. The first three quarters of this year, Toyota to 7.4 million won, General Motors and Volkswagen, nearly 7 million, but by the impact of the Diaoyu Island incident, the massive decline in sales of Toyota cars in China.

 

    The increase in sales of the Asian market is one of the main factors to enhance the performance of Toyota overseas, the Toyota two major markets in North America and China, the 2010 Toyota in the Chinese market, sales increased by 19%, to 846,000 this year plummeted. Different ways according to statistics, two Toyota data expressed slightly different: the data revealed by the of its executives outward media, Toyota sold about 50,000 vehicles in China in September this year, compared to about 86,000 vehicles in September last year, a year-on-year a decrease of approximately 40%. Second to the data released by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Toyota September sales of 44,100 vehicles, an plummeted 48.9%, the third quarter sales in China to 197,700 vehicles, down 23% year-on-year.

    Not only that, the 2011 trade statistics released by the Japanese Finance Ministry initial value 2.4927 trillion yen in Japan (1 yuan or about 12 yen) trade deficit in 2011, the first half of fiscal year 2012 (the month of April -9) Japan, the amount of 3.2190 trillion yen ($ 40.6 billion), a record trade deficit. Exports 32.1603 trillion yen ($ 405.2 billion), down 2%, a decrease of 16.1% and 8.2%, respectively, of the same period in Japan's exports to the EU and China. Japanese exports can hardly be optimistic, the decline almost equal to the time of the oil crisis, stagflation in 7.80 years of the last century.

    If Japan and the United States jointly make further stimulate action, exports to Japan will be more detrimental harmless the United States, because the United States imports of manufactured goods from China, which is part of the product is already in the process of transformation.

Are controlled by others, an independent country, economic, diplomatic, military and domestic sharp cry inciting populist, is a typical symbol of the decline. Regression Japan's voice of reason, to be in tune with the surrounding area, in order to increase the depth of the economy. 

United States to return to Asia-Pacific to bring joy and worry within ASEAN in Southeast Asia exist differences

Both from the point of view of economic growth or capital market performance, the Southeast Asian economies this year, quite a "star" momentum, which requires several reasons:

First, the demographic structure of the region has certain advantages, the steady growth in the middle class become the main driving force to stimulate domestic demand; Second, good economic and financial fundamentals of most countries in Southeast Asia, policy space, which has become the country such as Thailand and the Philippines able to achieve the monetary and fiscal policy, the main reason of the "double-wide"; Third, the steady advancement of the process of economic integration in ASEAN, the beginning of the integration of capital markets and the related economic mutually beneficial agreement to implement derivative tremendous synergies; fourth, Thailand floods start the large fund projects and reconstruction projects as well as the implementation of the entire ASEAN region infrastructure upgrade, a favorable factor for stimulating local investment and foreign capital inflows.

Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, the "Asian tigers," said the third quarter GDP growth rate of 6.17%, 3%, 5.2% and 7.1%, respectively. At present, the proportion of these four countries, the current account surplus to GDP were 0.2%, 3.4%, 11% and 3.1%, the proportion of government debt to GDP of 25%, 42%, 53% and 41%, the budget deficit was 1.6 %, 1.5%, 5.3% and 2% of the overall economic and financial fundamentals are relatively healthy.

International institutions is very optimistic about the economy in Southeast Asia and the ASEAN integration process. According to the latest IMF forecast, the five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam) in 2012, the economic growth rate will reach 5.4 percent, is expected to improve to 5.8% in 2013, and in 2011, a growth rate of 4.5%.

Terms of the performance of the capital markets, as of mid-December, the Philippines and Thailand's main stock index this year has risen by 39% and 37%, or leader in Asia stock index, performance ranked 4th in Bloomberg included the world's 94 major stock index and 7.

This year, the Southeast Asian market is one of the major investment destination for foreign investors favor and keep capital from the stock and bond markets of the region since the beginning of this year, which can be seen in the net inflow. According to the fund of funds monitoring agency EPFR's data, as of December, Thailand shares the base and Indonesian shares base to attract 1.72 billion and $ 1.27 billion of net inflows, the Philippines and Malaysia shares based Total attract the approximately $ 1.5 billion net inflow; to the four countries of the zhaiji this year also attracted a net inflow of nearly $ 7 billion.

Southeast Asian economies stun global

Both from the point of view of economic growth or capital market performance, the Southeast Asian economies this year, quite a "star" momentum, which requires several reasons:

First, the demographic structure of the region has certain advantages, the steady growth in the middle class become the main driving force to stimulate domestic demand; Second, good economic and financial fundamentals of most countries in Southeast Asia, policy space, which has become the country such as Thailand and the Philippines able to achieve the monetary and fiscal policy, the main reason of the "double-wide"; Third, the steady advancement of the process of economic integration in ASEAN, the beginning of the integration of capital markets and the related economic mutually beneficial agreement to implement derivative tremendous synergies; fourth, Thailand floods start the large fund projects and reconstruction projects as well as the implementation of the entire ASEAN region infrastructure upgrade, a favorable factor for stimulating local investment and foreign capital inflows.

Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, the "Asian tigers," said the third quarter GDP growth rate of 6.17%, 3%, 5.2% and 7.1%, respectively. At present, the proportion of these four countries, the current account surplus to GDP were 0.2%, 3.4%, 11% and 3.1%, the proportion of government debt to GDP of 25%, 42%, 53% and 41%, the budget deficit was 1.6 %, 1.5%, 5.3% and 2% of the overall economic and financial fundamentals are relatively healthy.

International institutions is very optimistic about the economy in Southeast Asia and the ASEAN integration process. According to the latest IMF forecast, the five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam) in 2012, the economic growth rate will reach 5.4 percent, is expected to improve to 5.8% in 2013, and in 2011, a growth rate of 4.5%.

Terms of the performance of the capital markets, as of mid-December, the Philippines and Thailand's main stock index this year has risen by 39% and 37%, or leader in Asia stock index, performance ranked 4th in Bloomberg included the world's 94 major stock index and 7.

This year, the Southeast Asian market is one of the major investment destination for foreign investors favor and keep capital from the stock and bond markets of the region since the beginning of this year, which can be seen in the net inflow. According to the fund of funds monitoring agency EPFR's data, as of December, Thailand shares the base and Indonesian shares base to attract 1.72 billion and $ 1.27 billion of net inflows, the Philippines and Malaysia shares based Total attract the approximately $ 1.5 billion net inflow; to the four countries of the zhaiji this year also attracted a net inflow of nearly $ 7 billion.

"Financial cliff" of US countdown

For the U.S. and European markets, the market this week, cold white Christmas weather.

Monetary easing in Japan's new cabinet is expected to boost the market sentiment, the stock market under pressure on concerns about the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations. Harassment in late October on the east coast hurricane interrupted the normal retail activities, consumers save of the economic recovery in Europe and the prospect of concerns, but dare not enjoy consumer. Investors are generally waiting for the results of the postganglionic U.S. budget negotiations.

The weak traditional festivals during the Christmas holiday sales data, further driving down the market index. The Investigation Agency SpendingPulse expected, total sales in the United States two months before Christmas is only an increase of 0.7% compared with last year, far lower than the expected 3-4%, the slowest growth since the financial crisis of 2008.

For retailers, the 2012 holiday shopping season may be the worst time since the financial crisis of 2008, sales increased far less than expected, forcing many retailers discount promotions expect to take to reduce excess inventory after Christmas mass . U.S. retailer has suffered 27 price tumbled sharply, dragged U.S. stocks lower.

The last three trading days, the Dow Jones index has decreased continuously from 27 before the U.S. stock market opened, all the three major U.S. stock index futures edged lower, indicating that investors are not optimistic about the U.S. stock market on the date.

The weak stock market, commodity, bond market traded in Christmas after also relatively light. The night of the 26th New York Golden narrow range rise Takami $ 1,668.7 an ounce, closing up 0.1%. Due to the cold weather and technical buying, on the 26th, the New York oil futures rose more than 9 weeks high, rising $ 2.37, closed up 2.7%. Gasoline futures prices extended gains, rising 2.3%.

Obama and Boehner on the 28th return of the "financial cliff" negotiations, in order to avoid given automatically take effect on January 1 next year, $ 500 billion cut public spending tax increase measures to reach an agreement, it has also become the focus of global financial markets this week.

"Cliff" the United States from automatically crazy plus tax cut branch just three trading days, the U.S. Congress, the two parties are still immersed the intermodulation game, unwilling to make concessions. Republican leader of the House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner on Wednesday issued a statement, urging Democrats control the Senate must act first; spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, tit-for-tat, said the Senate has passed a proposal to protect 98% of taxpayers , in turn, urged Republicans dominated the House of Representatives passed the bill.

The U.S. Treasury Department said on Wednesday that the U.S. government will hit $ 16.394 trillion debt ceiling Monday, triggered a series of emergency measures may only allow the United States into a the full debt crisis delayed until February or March next year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday sent a letter to congressional leaders of both parties, said that special measures will be taken, including the suspension of the issue of the part of the state and local government bonds, involving bond size of about two hundred billion U.S. dollars to postpone debt default time.

Obama is currently facing a crisis of early 2011 the government closed more serious crisis, the U.S. Treasury Department's "treasury" to have bottomed out, compared with 2011, currently less cash on hand. When the United States in May 2011 hit debt limit, the government has about $ 128 billion in cash. As of last week, the U.S. government only has $ 52.1 billion in cash.

, The size of the debt of the U.S. government reached the ceiling and adjust the sovereign rating of the United States will not be prompted Moody's, the international rating agency Moody's on the 27th. However, Moody's also warned that if the United States failed in 2013 to develop a clear medium-term planning for the fiscal and debt problems, Moody's may downgrade the sovereign rating of the United States.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Playing the national security card will not help the U.S. economy and prosperity

United States Government eager to create jobs, promote economic recovery, allowing more manufacturing jobs in the United States. Open to with great growth potential in China's capital, the United States benefit. Many United States who aptly pointed out, some United States Congressmen waving "national security" sticks, instead of anxiety, United States national security, but cannot adjust to the changes taking place in Sino-US economic relations.

On Sino-US economic relations are currently at a turning point. Despite the economic structure, industrial structure, complementarity and cooperation between the two countries is still very strong, but between Sino-American economic competitive side has begun to surface. As China's move to the high end of the value chain, China has advantages in technology companies United States, to United States companies bring competitive pressure, injuries and some interest groups. This is technology content and competitive advantage of China's enterprises in recent years frequently encounter "security bottlenecks" reasons. For selfish ends China enterprises investment United States people seem to forget that healthy competition to promote enterprise development, benefiting consumers, competition is itself United States the inexhaustible source of social innovation culture.

A balanced and growing Sino-US trade and investment relations will lay a solid foundation for the prosperity of both countries. Deepen Sino-US cooperation in the area of investment, which is one of the priorities of the Governments of the two countries in economic and trade fields between China and. Deepen investment cooperation, requires equal and open environment and the opening is not a one-way street. China has started new negotiations on the bilateral investment protection agreement, United States need to invest in a more open attitude towards China.

Sino-American relations and economic cooperation "ballast stone". Cultivating an open, fair and transparent investment environment, can not only allow "ballast stone" better have a stabilizing effect on the entire atmosphere of Sino-US relations will have a positive impact on

How long can Shinzo Abe run this time ?

Shinzo Abe, president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, after the ceremony of the 26th Japanese House and Senate elections officially elected as the 96th-generation Japanese Prime Minister, this is his second since 2006, was elected. New term Abe regime "economic recovery" on all policy objectives first press conference on the day to entertain reporters, Abe set forth in the political and economic program, also revealed he tried are exploring a "pragmatic , balanced national governance mode. Here, we want to focus on evaluation of the economic policies pursued his upcoming affect China's economy and what impact.

First, Abe will actively promote the ultra-loose quantitative monetary policy to cope with large-scale government fiscal spending plans, which bothered to create a favorable investment environment inside and outside of the Japanese economy out of deflation. Therefore, we can speculate that Abe in the future will be to further develop the Chinese market to gesture with China close to the same time, but also to "pull" the way to win the sympathy and support of the United States, in order to find balance China, to fit Japan's national interests that degree. " Abe repeatedly stressed recently employment policies and fertility incentives and social security policy, its focus in order to restore the international competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing and ease the thorny issue followed by Japan "industrial hollowing out". So, Abe worked hard to pursue future quantitative easing monetary policy, internally designed to keep the cost of capital advantage of Japanese companies, and externally in order to maintain the trend of depreciation of the yen in order to ensure that Japan's international competitiveness is not the currency of the United States and Europe flood stifled. In this sense, the Chinese market will be Abe regime in the eyes of the re-emergence of the best Japanese manufacturing stage. Japanese politicians are also looking forward to the future with optimism by a number of knowledge-China camp diplomat to seek a means of maintaining the balance of the "politically cold and economically hot" strategy. To do this, they need to join the umbrella of the United States. Abe regime realized that the the TPP framework of the interests of the United States to improve is far greater than in Japan. You Qian-fold in the election of the Prime Minister has repeatedly join the TPP is the development of the largest threats to the Japanese agriculture. Of course, after the election, Abe from "pragmatic" point of view, to re-examine the strategic significance of the TPP. Make the greatest efforts to require the United States to give Japan a more tolerant special treatment for example, delaying the full liberalization of the agricultural and medical fields, in order to ease Japanese farmers and medical sectors of the dissenting voices, which in turn will promise to each other, with this The new US-led Asian economic cooperation strategy the TPP to curb China's economic leadership in the Asian region.

Secondly, the Fukushima disaster reconstruction and new energy strategy refactoring Japan's future to enhance domestic demand, the government had to invest heavily in the place. Today, the Japanese government is deeply these two aspects of the lag is the lack of manpower and funds. In the future, Japan will attract a large amount of overseas labor or to relax the conditions of employment of the students studying in Japan, at the same time, the substantial financial subsidies, to enhance the potential consumer demand in Japan and reduce energy costs through the improvement of domestic demand in the improvement of the quality of public life to enhance the community become a better place confidence in the future life. Obviously, this down Japan's fiscal deficit will deteriorate rapidly, and this adds a greater risk of default on domestic and foreign investors, including China. To this end, the Government of Japan will continue to improve the convenience of overseas travel to Japan and to raise the consumption tax supporting fiscal balance to address the weakness in the pattern of the current tax base in Japan. Can China exuberant rich overseas consumption, promoting the network of cross-border renminbi trade settlement, we seek to balance spending power "drain" the required RMB cross-border use convenient improve key. Otherwise, China's consumer market because of the backwardness of our consumer environment will be a part of.

Third, the the Abe regime this policy agenda with particular emphasis on crisis management. In this form the cabinet, he set up the problems of the economy may appear different management departments. I hope to find Japan's relatively favorable external economic and strategic position through the detailed differences in policy. Therefore, China and Japan in island dispute before the established civil interdependence of trade and investment, but also completely possible future crisis management change. For example, Japan, for the point of view of national security and balance China's economy will shrink on in the investment scale enterprises in the return of the local support of the Japanese fiscal policy, while at the same time cater to European and American voices demanding the opening of the Chinese market, thereby expanding the scale of the in exports . The benefits of doing so is conducive to the Japanese domestic employment and tax revenue. Quantitative easing monetary policy in Japan and the flooding of the dollar and the euro will affect commodity prices, squeezing the profits of China's manufacturing industry, and the depreciation of the yen will be denied the export competitiveness of Chinese products. Therefore, the structural adjustment of China's future should have an international outlook, one hand to enhance the technical content of our industry, as well as by means of monetary, exchange rate and industrial policy to support the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises overseas market. Otherwise, our employment and tax revenue will be squeezed out.

In short, this term Abe government in the heart carries a kind of "checks and balances" Cold War mentality, to seek the future performance of the Miami Heat and the Chinese "economic integration", then, this "politically cold and economically hot" The optimistic idea whether also as in the past barely effective, it is difficult to say. We hope that Japanese politicians were able to return to a respect for history, look at the overall situation in the future, cherish the good economic foundation laid by the Asian manufacturing countries, which play their respective comparative advantages, and to establish a real trust and cooperative relations, the only way the National will welcome the government so that the national and even global governance, Abe regime to free themselves from the embarrassing situation of the extremely unstable political situation in Japan in recent years to play out of their own have been looking forward to "political leadership" Japanese nationals share to the long-term stability of the world from the environment to get rid of them long-term economic downturn brought huge dividends of globalization.

U.S. holiday sales increased only 0.7%, or indicates that in 2013 the economy suffered decline

U.S. sales growth for the Christmas Day 2012, the lowest since 2008, only 0.7% growth over the same period last year. Analysts believe that holiday sales slump is due to the recent bad weather and people worried about the economy led to. They also believe that Americans do not want to spend money, or indicates that the United States in 2013, the economy may experience a decline. 

According to a report, two months until the United States to pre-Christmas sales increase of 0.7% over the same period last year. According to the report of another market research firm, in November 2011 and December retail sales growth of 4% to 5%. 

Analysts believe that U.S. consumers in 2012, suffered a series of strikes, prompted them reluctant to spend money: super storm "Sandy" and other inclement weather, disturbing the election process and the Connecticut shootings. The latest retail sales figures also reflect the U.S. budget impasse is affecting the average consumer. The observers also believe that if the Americans do not want to spend money on next year's economic growth is necessary to decline. 

It is reported that holiday sales is a key indicator of the U.S. economy. November and December sales accounted for 40% of the full-year sales of many businesses. If holiday sales to meet its target, many shops would be forced to the depth of discounts, thereby decreasing the businesses profitable. Eight weeks of holiday sales is very important not only for retailers, but also for manufacturers, wholesalers and supply chain companies are key.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

How to grow steady China's economic

The startup investment is the first thing to consider. In the case of external demand, weak consumption is difficult to fast growth, in order to avoid massive unemployment due to the sharp economic downturn, startup investment has become the choice of no choice. The problem is how to start investment? Is not "4000000000000", "Rail Machine" to go the old road? The answer is clearly no. The investment body should not the government, but should be civil. The country folk have a lot of idle capital, Once leveraging, can be a powerful investment force to quickly stabilize the momentum of the economic downturn. How can leveraging private investment? First, open to private capital industry. At present, a large number of money-making industry has been the monopoly of the central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, private capital can not go through. If you can Railway, military, financial, petroleum, water supply, power supply and so the industry is fully opened up to private capital, is bound to attract private investment into. The second is to create a favorable financing environment for private investment body, to fine-tune monetary policy. The third is to create a fair competitive environment and social environment for private capital. Fourth, take a variety of policies to guide private capital investment in the field of strategic emerging industries, cultural industries.

   Followed by a comprehensive tax cuts. Especially small and medium-sized enterprises and small and micro enterprises, the implementation of a comprehensive tax cuts. SMEs, small and micro enterprises bear the task of solving the employment tax pressure is very heavy, many enterprises miserable. Annual financial income rose sharply, businesses, and residents have not fared well. The incomes of many taxes there are many unreasonable, for example, there are repeated levy personal income tax corporate income tax for small and micro enterprises and small and micro enterprises main suspected. If a substantial reduction of the tax burden on small and micro enterprises, is bound to stimulate the entrepreneurial enthusiasm of enterprises, and create more jobs. The government and its mad levy overtaxing the depreciation of the money to get hands squandering, not as good as Fangshuiyangyu enterprise development.

   The third is to expand consumption. Should take various measures to expand consumption, the First, find ways to increase income, such as payment of in-kind vouchers to low-income and other forms; improve the social security mechanism to reduce the worries of the people; given to energy saving and environmental protection products and strategic emerging The consumption of industrial products to the appropriate subsidies; strengthen guided tours, cultural consumption.

Analysis of the international economic situation in 2013

Looking to 2013, the international economic situation, mixed, overall will be better than 2012. Can be summed up in a few words: the United States a full recovery, the European debt crisis is bottoming out, emerging economies are still difficult and increases the risk of Japan. Specific analysis is as follows:

   United States. U.S. fiscal cliff just a false alarm, tax cuts continues, will also raise the deficit ceiling. The end of December 2012, the United States will once again in the global attention by monetary easing out of the woods. The financial cliff resolved, the U.S. economic situation will Yimapingchuan. The first half of 2013, the dollar depreciation trend will continue. The second half of the year, with the recovery of the real economy, real estate strong pick up, the increase in personal consumption, will attract large-scale international investment flows into the U.S. dollar started to rise, so as to promote the comprehensive recovery of the U.S. economy.

   The euro zone. The European debt crisis bottomed out in the first half of 2013. The early resignation of Italian Prime Minister to Spain a few strokes maturity of the debt, the French private debt risk of the release of bad events occurred prior to mid-2013. These things occur, the worst day of the European debt crisis would pass. With the election results of the 2013 German Chancellor dust settles, the euro zone economy will enter a slow recovery phase. Of course, this is a long and painful process. European welfare policy, the management mechanism of the euro zone, the economic recovery in the euro area have to face and solve the problem.

   Emerging economies. Emerging economies in 2013 will still be more difficult. Slow growth and inflation will exist. Make emerging economies external demand for long-term weakness of the European economy in the doldrums and the U.S. trade protection. Resource prices, rising labor costs and competitiveness of emerging economies will weaken. While slow growth, resource prices, rising labor costs in turn promote the domestic price increases. With the continued monetary easing in the United States and other developed countries, imported inflationary pressure in emerging economies has continued to exist. 2013 emerging economies will be slightly better than in 2012, but overall, it would be more difficult. Among them, China due to the transformation of the earlier, coupled with urbanization pulling, the soft landing will succeed. Relative to other emerging economies, is more optimistic.

   Japan. Liberal Democratic Party's election victory, marking the risk of the Japanese economy is on the rise. Liberal Democratic Party in "reviving the economy" as a slogan to win elections, but the Japanese economy in order to quickly revival is easier said than done. Japanese economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant leak and other events on the Japanese economy in 2011 has not yet been eliminated. The aging population, high sovereign debt issues facing Asian countries economic sanctions, and also a great impact on its economic development. Shinzo Abe inflation target raised twice tantamount to a gamble Originally economic development on the lack of power, but instead want to force development through devaluation. The Japanese politics utilitarian forcing Abe had to gamble once handled properly, the Japanese economy into a prolonged recession.

Into the wrong industries, a lifetime in the United States earn $ 1.6 million less

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released a report that, with a bachelor's degree in engineering graduate in a 40-year career in education graduate earn $ 1.6 million average. Engineering degree in 2011, the average annual salary of $ 92,000, and the performing arts, education, psychology, bachelor average annual salary is less than $ 55,000.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau recently released the 2011 Community Survey report, the U.S. college graduates with a bachelor's degree, working full-time annual median salaries of $ 64,396, these people both new graduate students, including those who did The lifetime of the highest degree is a bachelor of full-time workers. Engineering professional salaries highest annual average of up to $ 91,611; computer and math professionals ranked second, with an annual $ 80,180; physics, chemistry, medicine, natural science salary is also good, ranked third with $ 80,037. At the other extreme, visual and performing arts professional salary minimum, an average of $ 50,484 for one year only, the teaching profession is only $ 50,902, a psychology major to $ 55,509, the column bottom third.

    It can be derived, engaged in engineering work on average per year than those in the performing arts professional to earn $ 40,000, a work of 40 years, throughout his career average difference of $ 1.6 million in revenue, the gap is still very alarming .

    The survey found, with a graduate, in which field work, the income gap is not small. Such as humanities graduates working in the computer field, the lifetime average earn $ 2.9 million, and the humanities graduates engaged in clerical work in the general office, life can only earn $ 1.6 million, these people, perhaps people say poverty Small white-collar workers.

    In terms of employment status, also found a trend similar science and engineering is more popular than liberal arts. Computer and math graduates the highest proportion of full-time employment, accounting for two-thirds of the engineering profession accounted for 65%, business accounted for 64% of these professionals are more popular, and easy to find full-time work. Education professionals engaged in full-time work accounted for only 41% of the language and literature of professional full-time workers accounted for 46%, visual and performing arts, accounting for 48%, indicating that these professionals are looking for full-time work is relatively difficult.

    The survey also found that the difference between the salaries of men and women of American college graduates is big. Boys average $ 75 914 $ 54 796 girls, a difference of more than twenty thousand a year, the biggest difference is the physics, chemistry, medicine, natural science, a difference of nearly $ 30,000 annual income for men and women; work salary in the private sector is relatively high, government departments than in an average of more than $ 7,000 a year.

    Already see from the above statistics clearly learn physics and chemistry, all over the world are not afraid, in the United States is also an irrefutable truth. Unwelcome in science and engineering than liberal arts more Haozhaogongzuo, the salary treatment also better, it is an indisputable fact. Learning Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry is hard, and requires a solid knowledge base, for the universal mathematical relatively weak American students in science and engineering is often not the best choice. This is why Americans exclaimed the training of engineers each year is not enough, members of Congress are planning legislation to allow foreign science and engineering students to stay reason to work in the United States.

    Georgetown University study last year that U.S. college students majoring in subjects closely related to future income, the level of three-fold difference. Higher economic value of petroleum engineering, mathematics, computer, counseling psychology, early childhood education, lower economic value. Asian students learn the law and public policy, the median annual salary of $ 55,000, $ 48,000 psychology and social work, biology and life sciences annual salary of $ 53,000.

The price of gold rose only 5.3% this year,the rose record is the lowest level in four years

Fell nearly four months, a new low

The recent gold price continued to fall, for example, last week, the price of gold to $ 1,695 / oz opening to Friday to close at $ 1,648 / oz, down $ 51 / oz. Which, last Thursday the price of gold is once low exploration to $ 1,635 / ounce, hitting the lowest level in nearly four months since.

This week, this situation could not be improved markedly. Yesterday afternoon, the price of gold is about $ 1,658 / ounce, compared to the November 26 opening of the $ 1750 a month, $ 100 / ounce drop.

, The market believes that there are many reasons for the decline. In addition, the U.S. economy appears First, the U.S. hedge fund bearish on gold (1658.80, -0.70, -0.04%), Morgan Stanley Smith Barney and its financial adviser has recommended the withdrawal of customer funds from long-term, multi-gold fund; signs of improvement, which triggered technical selling; addition, U.S. politicians have not yet reached an agreement on the financial cliff, triggering panic in the market, investors have sold gold to buy U.S. dollars, which also led to the price of gold fell.

Gold analyst Ma Jun's view is similar. In his view, the recent decline in the gold, is to adjust the parameters of the Fund due to change positions, in addition, some fund managers tend pocket for safety and prudent investment also have some impact.

This year, the price of gold rose only 5.3%

2012 only less than a week, gold ability continuation of the bull market? Reporter saw the beginning of the year compared to 1570 U.S. dollars / ounce, the price of gold and yesterday rose only 88 U.S. dollars / ounce, or 5.3%. Previously, the price of gold has maintained for 11 consecutive years of gains, which has risen to $ 145 in 2011, or 10.2%; 2010 or 29%; 2009 or 24.5%; 2008 gold prices also rose 5.8%.

In response, Ma gold still have some gains, but compared to a few years ago will be worse. "The price of gold this year, the annual increase may hit since the 2009 low.

As for the trend of the future price of gold, the market mixed views. Such as Barclays Capital, will soon be 2013 gold forecast price dropped from 1860 to $ $ 1815, and that the 2014 average gold price of $ 1,760. UBS expects 2013 gold price of $ 1,900 / oz, and continued to rise in the gold price. The main reason is that America's fiscal problems there are still uncertainties, the central banks will continue to maintain a loose monetary policy.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

sick capitalism: the rich and the poor contradictory class contradictions

The institutional limitations kidnapped national interests

Luis Gomez (National Autonomous University of Mexico, the director of the Centre for Social Policy Research): Western democratic institutions exist historical limitations, due to the political parties alternating in power, it is difficult to imagine a political party for the collective interests of the country as a whole. In this extremely narrow "political context", the partisan interests above the national interest, lead to extremism, absolutism and negationism produce. It has been formed in the West and the long-term existence of a political and cultural traditions, radical institutional change can occur only through radical reform or some kind of revolutionary movement broke out before, this is unlikely to be achieved in today's real-world conditions.

Qu Xing (China Institute of International Studies): Western state system predicament is mainly reflected in the ruling and opposition parties a zero-sum game, the proliferation of populism as well as internal contradictions marrying. Hope resides in the failure of the ruling party came to power by the opposition. This zero-sum relationship led to the reform measures proposed by the ruling party often become the main point of attack of the opposition. In addition, voters tend to be most concerned about the immediate and local interests, big phenomenon promised to please voters flooded elections, visionary and dare to say the truth it is difficult to be elected. The consequences of most countries rely on deficit support financial, people rely on borrowing ahead of the consumer, the formation of a vicious cycle of debt on debt. Finally, under the pressure of electoral politics, the capitalist countries tend to shift domestic political pressure to the external. Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, to promote the Libyan war, largely focused on the domestic election in 2012. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda engage in so-called Diaoyu Islands "nationalization", largely due to the internal affairs of lackluster, hope to resist the pressure of the domestic opposition by outward display of a tough attitude.

Emerging market countries to go their own way

Students Yevgeny Avdo Kushan (director of the Centre of Asian Studies, Department of Economics of the University of Moscow, Russia): Once upon a time, Russia, India and other countries of Europe and America mode very hard, such as Russia Gaidar team is representative of, they do not depth, in particular, there is no real understanding of the Russian economy in real terms, which is distinct from China's distinctive features. China carried out economic reforms with its own characteristics. Russia is completely off-the-shelf copy the Western economic model and theory, the resulting predictable results.

FRONT IN (academician of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Marxism Research Institute): India today is a big bourgeoisie dominated by the national bourgeoisie, the landlord class, the United Nations [microblogging] international financial capital of the workers, peasants and petty bourgeois capitalist countries in the development of class rule, is a special mixture of dominant capitalist system and the caste system, the sectarian system, the tribal system.

Politics, this is the West hailed as the world's "largest democracy", directly under the influence of neo-liberalism, the democratic system is by money and political challenges. Economic neo-liberal economic reforms, the India to get rid of the curse of "Hindu growth", but fall into the trap of the "free market". The government has relaxed restrictions on access to international financial capital and supervision of the domestic banking sector and other financial systems. Development of aggravation in the different regions, between different departments, urban and rural public input, the slow development of agriculture, increased polarization. And original Indian agricultural science and technology research and development and application of organization gradually multinationals from alternative and control. Venkatesh ・ Aspen Calabria Professor of the University of ElBaradei Dasang, India, a number of scholars believe that the people's livelihood, the big capitalists as beneficiaries of the neo-liberal economic reform, urban workers and urban elite and the middle and lower classes, and farmers accounted for more than 60% of India's population, the growing inequality in the distribution of wealth and income.

The problems of the Indian society today, the bourgeois conscience alone, the enthusiasm of the NGO, the conditional assistance of international organizations, scholars reflection, the awakening of the people can not be solved, India's urgent need for fundamental institutional change. Tata Academy of Social Sciences, 巴拉苏罗曼 reflection and said: "60 years after the founding of New China to India a lot to learn from the valuable experience, India's economic and social problems faced today, almost directly in China find a solution to the answer. "

Capitalism seeks to go beyond the "boundaries"

Ernst the Luo Aofu (the Germany "crisis" studio members): capitalism touched the "boundaries" of capitalism does not necessarily mean we should disintegrate and perish, but refers to the expansion of the capitalist system, generated through capital the basic purpose of the more capital can not continue to be maintained. Expansion of capitalism and the process of capital accumulation characterize the basic outlook of the history of the past 200 years, more and more labor is absorbed into the capitalist system to the formation of capital accumulation, this accumulation is bound to reach a critical point, so that the process can not continue and the emergence of a system failure. This failure means that the production of social stagnation and social viability subsided. These phenomena are currently in crisis countries. Therefore, the "boundaries" refers to this development logic, non-capitalist society will perish and the birth of a new social system.

Yevgeny of Avdo Kushan: the international financial crisis erupted in 2008 also, but not to conclude that the capitalist system would wither away, it is still alive, at least in 2030, do not die. Capitalism will make the appropriate changes will strengthen their social tendencies, such as the middle class will get a big development, the society will be more democratic, but to protect the interests of the monopoly capitalist countries this essence will not change.

Liming Jiang (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies scholar): As an economic system, capitalism overall is effective. Multiple modes of capitalism, capitalism in the United States and Europe, capitalism within the EU are also different from each other, capitalism in Japan and Europe and the United States are also different. Capitalism can learn from the good things, such as the "small government, big market", but not blindly copy, it needs to be improved and amended.

Luis Gomez: capitalism and socialism, the two systems have a common ground, government regulation, but the proportion of government regulation. General capitalist countries to learn from the successful experience of socialism, is being developed to the direction of greater government intervention.

Reality tells us that liberalism and interventionism and so will not completely solve capitalism is inherently cyclical economic and institutional crisis. Future democratic government should not belong to the traditional liberal government, nor the neo-liberal government, the same will not be simple welfare system oriented government. I advocate to explore the establishment of a new democratic political system "strategy-oriented government" for the time being may be called, it is built on the basis of sustainable growth and consideration of the interests of the overwhelming majority of the people. In other words, through democratic universal suffrage a play "and" scientific and efficient government, long-term consideration and planning the future development of the country as a whole, and the interests of the people as a core reference system to measure effectiveness of policy implementation.

The next few decades the Western bold institutional reforms, including changes in the current neo-liberal management model, the blind expansion of the globalization process, and the operation of the political and economic system of the lack of effective intervention. A strategy-oriented government "is to understand the operation of the scientific processing and coordination of collective and individual, government and market a series of contradictions, and thus stimulate economic growth vigor. In this regard, China is a good reference and reference, and its advantages embodied in the perfect unity of the central government regulation and market-led regulation, to provide a reliable institutional guarantee orderly market competition and efficient allocation of resources.

Decline in social cohesion

Yuan Peng (China Contemporary International Relations, Assistant Dean, director of the Institute of American Studies): Western deepest problem is that it's social spirit level. For a long time, we thought that the American society is vibrant and cohesive, but in recent years, this conclusion should be some amendments.

American society has deep structural problems, including the rich and the poor contradictions, class contradictions, conflict inter-generational, regional conflicts and ethnic contradictions. These contradictions are neglected in the past, an important reason is that after the end of the Cold War, the United States enjoy the benefit of a superpower bonus, and not just concentrate on the internal restructuring and reform. 9.11 "has been busy fighting terrorism, busy with the change and deepening of the military system, security system and intelligence system, ignoring the economic system and social system, advancing with the times and recycling.

Charlie Beckett (London School of Economics, the media department head): the media scandal occurred this year, more than people recognize, is necessary to reflect on the "freedom of speech" under the capitalist system. Newspapers can not be all day, shouting "freedom of speech", at the same time make a shady dealings or distort the truth. British newspaper obvious partisan difficult for themselves, the pursuit of sales and profits, defend like inquire privacy acts. The media must make a tremendous change in the moment of their own high standards and strict requirements, in particular to comply with journalistic ethics.

Of Dieter Tommy (professor of philosophy at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland): capitalism is eroding the family structure. Capitalism emphasized efforts to obtain the interests of the individual, the family is required for others to pay a lot. Today we feel that everyone should be the same as the capitalists, unrestricted, in order to work and work to maximize access to their own interests, profit-oriented. The capitalist way of life, penetrate into the life of the ordinary class people could let life better values to be marginalized, the family is placed in a secondary position, people communicate less and less.

Liming Jiang: the decline in moral standards in the West and ideological conservative tendency is mainly caused by globalization. On the trade front, the Western capitalist countries in recent years demand in Brazil, India and other emerging and developing countries to act in full accordance with international rules, and even more stringent requirements of these countries. Western religion and immigration has become more conservative. Globalization is the expansion of capitalism on a global scale, but also the external expansion of the capitalist system. Globalization interaction of various cultures impact each other, will have a lot of new thinking, new social customs and values, consciousness and not stereotypes.

Drag on the development of policy failures

Luis Gomez: one of the root causes of the financial crisis of the Western world is the "flower too much, borrowed too much." This is common with the Western countries "living beyond" consumer credit policy in advance not without relevance, this model is neither sustainable also completely worthless. Very easy to get credit in many Western countries, and fluctuations in the cyclical economic growth in these regions in the downlink channel, the lender of last resort, overwhelmed, could not pay the loan. It can be said, the policy mistakes expanding the face of the outbreak of the debt crisis.

Western welfare system itself obvious defects. By the aging of the population in the region on the one hand tired, the other hand, subject to the labor positions synchronization reduced. The same can not be ignored, when the savings and pension funds of the labor force market securitization package, as the crisis deepens, the welfare risk increases sharply. Has happened in some countries, for example the issue of pensions is shrinking and the outbreak of the crisis. Western if you want to jump out of the welfare system traps ", in addition to gradually attract capital into the real economy, and increase technological innovation and institutional change, no other method. Investment in the field of education and scientific research and breakthroughs should never be slack, these should be the greatest source to find solutions to the problems on the path of development of industrial production and services industry. Only economic growth have strong real economic foundation for the support, but also in order to effectively protect the supply of jobs, then jump out of the welfare trap.

Liming Jiang: Western welfare system also accelerated the outbreak of the crisis. Workers in the developed countries provide high welfare and security of life, unwilling to accept low-paying jobs, and handed over to workers in developing countries to do more dirty and more tired of the job. "Wage rigidity" labor costs of the welfare state can only rise not fall, government support can not afford welfare spending, more and more people on institutional dissatisfied.

Feliz Navidad: Skywalk buskers and givers ‘wish you a Merry Christmas’


A significant decrease in Monday morning foot traffic throughout the skywalk did not stifle the spreading of holiday cheer Christmas Eve Day.
Gifts from Skywalk Santa were spotted in some halls as early as 5 and 6 a.m. – blankets, sweaters, jackets and candy – and smiling Christmas wishes from busking musicians filled others late into the morning.
The spirit of generosity seemed to be contagious, as some vendors were even giving away Christmas goodies like cookies and sweets.
Here’s to a Feliz Navidad and a happy New Year in Des Moines.

Merry Christmas: US Air Force tracks Santa for kids

Volunteers at aUS Air Force base monitoring maps showingSanta Claus' progress were several hours into their goodwill mission and had answered more than 24,000 phone calls from children wanting to know everything from Saint Nick's age to how reindeer fly.

Oh, and when are the presents coming?

Phones were ringing nonstop at Peterson Air Force Base, headquarters of the North American Aerospace Command's annual Santa-tracking operation.

Dozens of helpers at NORAD were tracking Santa's location on large projection screens. They're posting updates for nearly 1.2 million Facebook fans and 104,000 Twitter followers.

The maps showed Santa was in Pakistan and heading west. He had delivered more than 2 billion presents so far, according to the "NORAD Tracks Santa" website.

NORAD, a joint US-Canada command responsible for protecting the skies over both nations, says its Santa-tracking rite was born of a humble typo in a newspaper ad in 1955.

The ad in a Colorado Springs newspaper invited children to call Santa but inadvertently listed the phone number for the Continental Air Defense Command, NORAD's predecessor, also based in Colorado Springs.

CONAD officers played along, and word spread that this Cold War military command charged with guarding the U.S. against an attack by the Soviet Union was also telling kids where Santa was.

Since then, NORAD Tracks Santa has gone global, progressing through bulletins on AM radios and black-and-white TVs to updates on Facebook, Twitter and smartphone aps.

Last year, volunteers answered almost 102,000 calls, nearly 25 per cent more than the previous year. They also answered more than 7,700 emails (noradtrackssanta(at)outlook.com).

The NORAD Tracks Santa website attracted 18.9 million unique visitors from 220 countries and territories during December 2011.

This year, the program had more than 1 million likes on Facebook and nearly 97,000 followers on Twitter days before the tracking operation got under way.

"How old is Santa?" one caller asked. The answer to that one is in the FAQs that NORAD handsout to volunteers: "It's hard to know for sure, but NORAD intelligence indicates Santa is at least 16 centuries old."

Other questions required the volunteers to think fast:

"How do reindeer fly?"

"How many elves does Santa have?"

"Does Santa leave presents for dogs?"

One little boy phoned in to ask what time Santa delivered toys to heaven, said volunteer Jennifer Eckels, who took the call. The boy's mother got on the line to explain that his sister had died this year.

"I think Santa headed there first," Eckels told him.

NORAD suggested that its volunteers tell callers that Santa won't drop off the presents until all the kids in the home are asleep. The response depends on the caller's age.

"Ohhhhhhh," said an 8-year-old, as if trying to digest a brand-new fact.

"Thank you so much for that information," said a grateful mom.

Credit Suisse boarded the top of the U.S. stocks IPO underwriting standings

Underwriting amounted to $ 4.7 billion in 2012

Data recently released by the investment banking research institutions Diluo Ji (Dealogic), Credit Suisse (Credit Suisse) debut in 2012 the U.S. stocks IPO underwriting topped the list. Thomson Reuters Statistics show that the 2012 Credit Suisse in the U.S. stock market underwriting 41 single IPO business, underwriting amounted to $ 4.7 billion. Last year, Credit Suisse, only $ 2.8 billion in underwriting amount ranked underwriting rankings eighth.

Said David Hermer, head of Credit Suisse general manager and equity capital markets in the Americas, Credit Suisse not only focus on winning transactions but also to be listed companies to provide views on the positioning and valuation. "Our underwriting the IPO stock seven days after the initial public offering, 30 days, and the year-to-date performance can prove that the performance of the stock in the secondary market after the initial public offering on the set of the company's future is very important. "he added.

In fact, as one of the nine Facebook IPO underwriters, Credit Suisse seems the above assertion should have reservations. Facebook last week, the stock closed at $ 26.26 / share, compared to the initial public offering of $ 38 / share price has fallen by nearly 30%.

However, Credit Suisse, the second largest in the U.S. market IPO underwriting transactions - real estate agency Realogy performance is quite gratifying. In the last month, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Barclays shared Realogy 12 billion dollars in IPO underwriting the issue price of 27 U.S. dollars / share, Realogy shares closed last week at $ 41.32 / share, or more than 50%.

Credit Suisse this year is in full swing preparing for the expansion of its equity capital markets business, at the same time, but its competitors have cut the business. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) earlier this year announced the exit of the equity capital markets business, Nomura Securities also closed its European equity capital markets business.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Google acquisition of Motorola mobile costs only $ 1.5 billion

We all know that Google acquisition of Motorola mobile spent $ 12.5 billion last year, but if we went to see the deal in more depth, you will find Google actually paid "net cost" may have only $ 1.5 billion. At this price, is a company holding the patent Motorola moves to win, is a great value for the sale to Google.

US $ 1.5 billion is how to work out the cost of it?

First of all, let us look at Google recently announced a deal. On December 19, 2012 and Arris company Google announced the signing of a sales agreement, Google price Motorola home business sector of us $ 2.3 billion sale to the latter, the deal included more than 2 billion dollars in cash and another $ 300 million Arris shares.

Transaction result is Google owns 15.7% shares of Arris the broadband technology company and US $ 2 billion in cash.

Through the deal, Google returns a portion of the funds.

Another fact to consider is that Motorola mobile accumulated tax losses, which made little sense for Motorola, because they can't make money now to offset these losses, but it won't be the same for Google. We all know that Google can tax credits to make a fortune.

Corporate tax expert Robert Willens: "through the tax benefits associated with the transaction, thereby giving a good deal becomes more valuable. "

He expects, through this transaction, in 2019 years ago Google annual income of US $ 700 million through tax cut of future profits. At the same time, Motorola mobile in the United States and overseas are in operating loss, so Google can also receive US $ 1 billion and US $ 700 million in tax breaks.

If the purchase price of us $ 12.5 billion minus the tax receipts from Arris and so much access to cash and stock, Google to buy Motorola deal price actually paid only $ 1.5 billion

Obama's new deal surprised Japan a cold sweat

Mr Obama, will continue its monetary easing policy, continue to operate the printing press. This bond has become astronomical Japan worried.

Results of a survey released on Monday showed that Japan government bond market sentiment index is gradually deteriorating due to market fears over Japan after taking office the new Government will take more aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures and lead to lower bond yields sharply.

Survey results show that weekly statistics of Japan Government Bond Index this week fell to-6, last week, the value will be 0, indicate that market confidence in the bonds is deteriorating.

Japan media coverage and, more recently, United States President Barack Obama was elected, Japan had surprised a cold sweat. This is why? Because Mr Obama, will continue its monetary easing policy after the election. Pop said, is to continue to operate the printing press. This bond has become astronomical Japan worried.

Not long ago, Japan a joke widely circulated in the media. Say Kyoto University Professor Shinya Yamanaka in 2012 years Nobel Prize in Physiology Prize, I do not know him after the award, did ask a laureate and award-winning--United States Denis Irwin-Ross and Dan Aykroyd-Xia Puli: United States ready to help Japan solve the national debt problem.

Japan media that ridicule is a reason. The Nobel economics prize on October 15, Japan Government began to deliver up to 722.6 billion yen of "personal treasuries." Received the Japan people long-breathed a sigh of relief, and debt-laden Japan almost no background washed out to the Government. But for the hard start the printing presses, constantly issuing new debt, Japan governments these days have credit went bankrupt.

Japan most financial experts believe that Japan happen, largely due to the "United States big brother".

Japan believes that the history of senior financial sector cane volumes and health, debt crisis on Japan caused by impact, than the second world war. Japan's social structure, values, policies and systems have been flattened by massive debts have distorted, now in Japan if not reinvent, it's hard to have hope.

Cane volumes say is justified. Japan's total debt has now reached 219% per cent of GDP, than European debt crisis of Greece, and Italy and other countries also scary. More terrible is that United States has begun to assist the European States to reduce huge debts, Japan's debt has no interest, and grow at a rate of ten trillion yen a year.

Not long ago, Japan government bonds is very popular with overseas investors "favor", being bought in large quantities in the international market, Japan Government is be happy for quite some time. But a survey report issued by the Agency, but Japan Government cool to feet from scratch.

It turns out that Japan government bonds and therefore was a lot of buying in the short term, because it has become the international financial speculators to bet against the "chips", which is synonymous with junk bonds. Once the speculators to profit off, Japan government bond values will crash more than, beyond redemption.

Not only that, bonds plunge Japan stock market, foreign exchange market, real estate market volume came in, the direct result will be Japan finance bankrupt, government agencies are closed. Japan is sad, the great majority of speculators and United States financial institutions close to the Government.

To prevent debt bankruptcy, Japan Government has modified article 5th of the Finance Act, forcing Japan's Central Bank to buy bonds, and let the printing presses at full throttle. But this is to prevent government departments and halt such as fire engines, ambulances, to maintain the most basic of social functioning. Japan Government it is clear that urgent measures have been normalized.

However, Japan financial experts have pointed out that, in the shrinking domestic demand, exports by Sino-Japanese relations deteriorated sharply reduce cases, Japan is still like thirst, only make Treasury bonds became worthless. Final result is prices, Japan printing presses again go down, I'm afraid the taxi starting price is 1 million yen is also possible.

Japan Government and private research institutions from the "formula" in the devaluation of the Japanese Yen was one of the most effective ways. After the devaluation of the Japanese yen, Japan enterprises to enhance competitiveness in the international market, employment increased economic good investor Japan confidence will also enable them to long-term holding of bonds.

However, this can only be a good blueprint. "The United States big brother" in the case of zishennanbao, are adding horse power operate printing presses. As a "little brother" Japan, banknote printing cannot and dare not more quickly than United States. Dollars more and more on the market, Yen with close ties have "appreciation".

In this way, Japan resolve the sovereign debt crisis the most effective solutions, and has also been blocked. Combined with United States military action at a time, Japan has to cut out hard money, which is causing Japan bonds indicates tired of important reasons. As in cane volumes and health history said, Japan's many crises, in a sense, is in the United States "lick ass" sovereign debt crisis is no exception.

Way to the survival of small businesses and small business owners

There is a story. A lion and a tiger, not knowing how to engage in a fight. Eventually, the two animals have been dying. At this time, the tiger lion said: "If you want to infringe on my site, we would not fall to such a fate." Said the Lion: "ah! I never want to invade your" tiger said: "I always wanted to, you certainly would violate me."

This is a do not look funny but thought-provoking story. The situation is the same in the business community, in order to compete for the market, in order to make the results of operations of the enterprise can improve, entrepreneurs are must try every means. In this situation, the the inevitable intense competition between enterprises. Large enterprises is also easy to survive in this environment, the bosses of small companies may not better. How to do? Small companies to do the planning and programming.

I remember that Napoleon said, he very carefully, very detailed war plans to write out to fight every battle, every war is not in accordance with his original plan to play. Someone would say: "Since the plan is very detailed, but not according to plan to do, then why do plan to do?" Napoleon said: "because the war is uncertain, fickle, so there is no way to control." That How to do it? He said: "only be able to control is the plan. First intend how war plan, and then follow this plan, this strategy do actually like, only quake, there is no other way." The key to success is Napoleon. In addition to the planned, Drucker also talked about planning. What is the plan? The plan is I'm going to Hawaii. What is the plan? I must take the time to arrange the flower budget with who conceived of the whole trip in detail write it, is called planning.

I remember former U.S. President General Dwight Eisenhower famously I'm impressed, A. Plan is nothing, planning is everything. "Means that it is necessary to plan, but also to planning. No plans, necessary to the working poor; plan, will not busy. Planning before action, the action will likely effect the outcome. If you do nothing, of course, on what can possibly have.

Many companies in charge of people have asked me: "our small company of only a few dozen individuals, you called, I do plan to do the planning, these things are big companies should do just the opposite. Drucker believes that large companies need to do the plan, planning, and small companies as well, even small companies to do the planning and programming. Someone asked him why is this it? He said: "Because of the small size of the company, human resources and other resources are very scarce, if you do not know how best to use only a small amount of resources, then how to do things it? How to obtain the performance of it? Impossible." Drew grams, said: "For a small company, even if only one store, plans and programs must be done." But I've seen those small companies, they are almost never done plans and programs, which surprised me. Why is it so? Why the person in charge of these small companies have no plans and programs?

The person in charge of these companies are very busy every day, they are busy with what? I asked if they have no plans, they say: "I just want to make money," I said: "If money is your plan, then you certainly can not make any money. More you want to make money, the more impossible to make money. "He said:" You tell me, how do I do that will do a better job. "I said:" People are the two legs, RMB four legs, you'll never run, but it you chase also fail to recover, chasing vain. then how to do? what you must be thinking, how can you let the money go into your pocket, rather than you chase after it. "This is a very important concept, and the concept from planning to planning, from the strategic to the tactical.

You do not spend all day pulling carts buried, he never looked up, and even the road are not sure where. Why the rise of? Do you want to see the map ah! A city where you're going, you always have to look at the time, look at the train schedule. Have to look at the time you fly, and know that in the end a few fly only way to arrange your trip. This is the plan, is very simple. If you want a little more in-depth course to do the planning. Plan or planning or management are in fact, the management is precisely in the construction of a comprehensive, overall operating mechanism. Must always think about the operational mechanism, consider the direction of thinking must consider'd never look within to see from the outside. Never look at now, is the first to consider what might happen in the future, look at what should be done now; within to see from the outside, from the customer's point of view, from the point of view of the market to look at their own business, thinking enterprises should do.

United States approaching the cliff. Japan debt be unwell


Congressional Republican Leader John Boehner, trying to launch its own deficit reduction program, as Obama less counter-proposal of the deficit plan. But the Republican bigwigs, the protagonist of the negotiations with the White House, could not in the party to coordinate the requirements of various forces, voting was canceled at the last minute. The Boehner Plan B Zhuiya the market worried about his party's leadership and mediation capacity, worried that Congress failed to pass the bill before the end of the year to avoid expenditure cuts of $ 600 billion tax increase takes effect automatically, worried that the U.S. economy plunged into a cliff. U.S. stocks fell, lost earlier in the week proceeds, risk assets for callback. The global stock market weakness, paradise government bonds by holding oil prices rose, gold dropped.

Boehner ingenuity, come up with a Plan B, the last clever anti cleverness, not only so that any of the the Republican Congressman leaders want to cast a shadow over early next year, but also the market suddenly realized that Boehner may not get the full support of the Party Members , the White House and congressional negotiations away from a farther distance reached consensus than imagined. My opinion, what happened last week will undoubtedly without vigilance market bang bar to drink, and the Congress can not be reached before the end of a consistent risk has increased, but in the end the White House and Capitol Hill agreed to launch a temporary mitigation measures to postpone Zhuiya has not changed much. In fact, the two parties on the tax increase, the position has been quite close to the White House program to 1.2 trillion, while Republicans insisted that no more than 1 trillion; the White House has been to raise taxes population increased to 40 million in annual revenue by $ 250,000. The Laya and Plan B, the White House immediately evolutions, called on Congress to downsize, will raise taxes in the highest income of 2% of the population, and unemployment benefits are limited to two million people in the most difficult. I believe This is a compromise can be reached, the election is over and the party struggles will, but not life and death, just the process ism, people to see.

Plans Laya, the White House immediately evolutions, called on Congress to downsize, will raise taxes in the highest income of 2% of the population, and unemployment benefits are limited to two million people in the most difficult. I believe This is a compromise can be reached, the election is over and the party struggles will, but not life and death, just the process ism, people to see. Japanese government bonds JGB write a new record last week, the foreign ownership of Japanese government debt reached 86 trillion yen (about one trillion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 9% of the total debt). This ratio is lower than the U.S. foreign investment accounted for 45% of level is undoubtedly a lot, but it is unprecedented in the history of Japan, and a large number of the Bank of Japan to buy JGB actually make the proportion is artificially reduced. Japan's debt-GDP ratio in the world all normal economy is the highest, is no reason why the outbreak of the debt crisis because JGB rests in the hands of the Japanese domestic financial institutions, these institutions are passive holding bonds, do not have a strong sense of risk, nor were capital flight signs, so speculators not afford to turn to. But the scale of Japan's debt is increasing deterioration in the profitability of the enterprises in overseas trade balance is more a structural deficit, an aging population began to decrease the savings rate to maintain the expenses. Japan's debt issuance will increasingly rely on overseas funds, and ultimately makes the JGB market is more affected by the influence and impact of overseas thought. Under such a background, the new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of unconventional fiscal expansion plans and stare inflation monetary policy is more likely to trigger point JGB crisis. Christmas Japanese government bonds this week JGB last week to write a new record, the foreign ownership of Japanese government debt reached 86 trillion yen (about one trillion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 9% of the total debt). This ratio is lower than the U.S. foreign investment accounted for 45% of level is undoubtedly a lot, but it is unprecedented in the history of Japan, and a large number of the Bank of Japan to buy JGB actually make the proportion is artificially reduced. Japan's debt-GDP ratio in the world all normal economy is the highest, is no reason why the outbreak of the debt crisis because JGB rests in the hands of the Japanese domestic financial institutions, these institutions are passive holding bonds, do not have a strong sense of risk, nor were capital flight signs, so speculators not afford to turn to. But the scale of Japan's debt is increasing deterioration in the profitability of the enterprises in overseas trade balance is more a structural deficit, an aging population began to decrease the savings rate to maintain the expenses. Japan's debt issuance will increasingly rely on overseas funds, and ultimately makes the JGB market is more affected by the influence and impact of overseas thought. Under such a background, the new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of unconventional fiscal expansion plans and stare inflation monetary policy is more likely to trigger point JGB crisis.

Into the Christmas holidays this week, trading volume and message flow estimate will be significantly reduced. The next two weeks, the biggest focus of course is the U.S. fiscal cliff, see American politicians will not the national interest is placed above the party struggles. The end of the non-agricultural employment in the United States, is expected to increase by +165 K, the unemployment rate remained at 7.7%. ISM should be slightly better than last month by Hurricane impact of digital. Minutes of the Fed, the low interest rates maintained until at least 2015, "remarks already clear, Aspect forecasts for growth and inflation. In Europe, PMI estimation improved. The Italian situation is still uncertain, Monty whether the election is still suspense. In Asia, China's PMI may be further improved.