Monday, April 1, 2013

U.S. stocks reached a new high, the Bank of Japan to seek evolutions

Last week, most of the time, the market with the development of the situation in Cyprus and dance, but eventually the market decided to ignore the temporary crisis of Mediterranean small country, focusing on U.S. data, S & P500 running away, write down the high. Cyprus accept EU terms for rescue funds into the market once this positive reaction. However, the new President of the European Union's new rescue mode of speech, sparking funds for future need private funding debt relief worried the European debt crisis, the European the swine debt and banking stocks sell-off, once moving sharply higher risk awareness. But soon the market to Cyprus bank run is not serious, neighbors bond markets were caught not serious grounds, the attention from European debt to U.S. data. The overall U.S. economic data to words in improved, but the improvement was not enough to force the Fed tightening soon. In the liquidity surrounded by the U.S. stock market hit a new high of U.S. debt, the dollar has a good performance. The rise in oil prices, commodity movements vary taking the price of gold.

Cyprus on the impact of the European debt situation, I believe that the medium-term. Serbian facing a banking crisis, rather than a sovereign crisis. As long as the European Central Bank is willing to provide unlimited liquidity, the bank may not quickly collapse, it may not immediately affect other countries. Europe in the handling of the Serbian set a precedent requiring shareholders, creditors and savers shared bank losses, the next countries facing similar crises, bank runs and capital flight situation may ferocious spread quickly.

This week, the Bank of Japan will convene the first meeting Kuroda any central bank president, The Kuroda is likely to introduce new quantitative easing. Now it seems that the Monetary Policy Committee on the loose speed and intensity did not reach consensus on the new measures may be reluctant to take the lowest new QE measures, to the performance of a gesture. If this is the case, the market may be disappointed, the yen is not ruled out Withdrawing. Long term, the Bank of Japan big issue currency little suspense, and is likely to become a QE world champion in the next few years. But Kuroda footing because of the shaky and hurried to attack, perhaps the effect is not ideal.

This week's focus: central bank decision-making and the situation in Cyprus. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regular meeting on Tuesday, it is estimated that the policy rate fixed. Thursday the Bank of Japan may increase the number of bond purchases, the same day the European Central Bank will not have a new monetary policy moves, but after reporters be noteworthy commentary of the situation in Cyprus. Bank of England, have a greater chance overweight the the monthly asset purchase amount. In the U.S., ISM material with the previous month, Friday's non-farm employment increased by about 190K, four months for the first time lower than 200K, but this is the result of government fiscal contraction, the folk still maintained the momentum of the economic recovery.

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