The depreciation of the yen increased import bills, Japan plans to increase coal consumption

Difficult to return to nuclear power in the short term, coal power generation has become the best choice for Japan to cut energy costs.

In order to compensate for the dismantlement of nuclear programs bring energy shortages, energy surge in imports in the past two years in Japan. Due to the continued depreciation of the yen, the growth in energy costs has become a huge burden for the Government of Japan, the nuclear power regression in the short term is very slim, the Japanese government decided to increase the proportion of coal consumption, as an alternative to more expensive oil and gas.

Significant increase in energy expenditure, the government is difficult to bear

Shinzo Abe re-appointed Prime Minister of Japan, to take a series of tough measures to save the Japanese economy, the yen depreciation is one of the means. However, the sharp depreciation of the yen to some extent, enhance the overseas competitiveness of exporters, but also makes the significant increase in Japan's energy expenditure. Energy imports increased dramatically after the abandon its nuclear program, the growth of this cost the Government is a big headache. Just past the second anniversary of the 3.11 earthquake in Japan, nuclear power regression is still nowhere in sight. Japan's nuclear power industry has entered the third year of stagnation, the Japanese government must consider reducing the cost of energy imports in order to control the trade deficit.


Japan in recent years, demand for energy is growing, especially in winter and summer energy peak demand period. However, the world's fifth largest energy consumer may be able to take a deep breath, because Japan will increase coal imports from Australia and Indonesia and other countries. Coal alternative to expensive oil and natural gas, even if increased imports, energy costs, will not have gone up.

The latest data show that Qasr port coal price index has now fallen below $ 90. Coal prices continue to decline Japanese government plans to use coal instead of oil and natural gas one of the reasons. As of March 29, New York at the port thermal coal price index dropped last week from 1.33 to 89.89 U.S. dollars / ton, compared with the same period last year decreased by about $ 10. Two years ago, coal prices are still floating between $ 100 and $ -136. Principal analyst of consulting firm Energy Aspects Amaranten Sen said: "Compared to oil and gas, coal is still the cheapest fuel. Downturn in the Asian coal prices to increase coal imports in Japan at this time is not very accident. "

But Sen also pointed out that, as one of the world's leading consumer of coal, improve coal consumption will stimulate the Asian coal market to a certain extent, but because the to enhance imports will take time, this effect is difficult to reflect short-term.

It is reported that Japan's six largest utility company in the beginning of the new fiscal year from April 1 this year to enhance 24% of coal consumption. In addition, Japan will build two coal-fired power plants to reduce the proportion of oil and natural gas in the power supply, to further reduce the amount of oil and gas imports.

The hot weather also will promote the growth of coal demand in Japan. According to the Japan Meteorological Department predicted that the temperature in Japan in April to July this year will be higher than the average of the previous years, and may even hit a hot record. This makes the power sector doubled the pressure, because the summer has always been the peak period.

In addition to increased imports, Japan is also other ways to protect the supply of coal. In the morning of March 30, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to Mongolia. Mongolian Prime Minister of Altan call SGS the day in the National Palace and Shinzo Abe held talks, the two sides emphasized the development of a "strategic partnership". Abe's visit to Mongolia's main topic is to promote Japanese-Mongolian economic cooperation and hope to cooperate with Mongolia to develop the country's rich coal resources, to ensure the diversification of energy supply, and will seek to Mongolia agreed with Japanese companies to participate in Mongolia tower Tolgoi coal mine development. The mine is the world's largest untapped coal mine. The analysis pointed out that Japan is an urgent need to ensure a stable supply of coal.

Preoccupied increase coal imports

Although a large number of coal can reduce energy costs, but it can also bring a lot of problems, the most obvious is the growth of carbon emissions. However, in order to revive the economy, the Japanese government clearly intends to set aside the first reduction.

Japan have realized the importance of environmental issues, and to invest heavily in solar and wind power and other new energy industry. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of these investments at least until 2015 became manifest. "Sen said.

Japan's economy published by the Ministry of Trade and Industry data show that in 2012, six utility companies in Japan coal consumption accounted for 16.3% of the total use of fossil fuels, this year, this proportion will increase to more than 20%; LNG proportion from 62.7% to 60%; the petroleum proportion decreased from 21% to 19.4%.

But even increase the use of coal instead of oil and gas, energy costs, it is difficult to drop, if the yen continues to depreciate. January of this year, crude oil (93.72, -0.48, -0.51%) imports fell 4.7%, spending has increased by 5.9%, but the January Brent oil prices only higher than the same period last year by 0.8%.

Doha Climate Conference held in December last year, Japan refused to join the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Now it seems the government probably also already intend to, the Japanese government said its new emission reduction targets for 2020 will be announced in November this year. Japan will develop a kind of emission reduction targets? How to reduce emissions in a substantial increase in the use of coal? These are issues of concern.

Two new coal-fired power plants will be the main source of growth in coal demand in Japan. The two Tokyo Electric Power Company's new power plant in northern Japan, the installed capacity will reach 1,600 MW, of which one two years ago, is located in the Fukushima nuclear power plant leak, and the other seating in Ibaraki Prefecture. The two power stations planned to put into operation this month.

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a report, Japan's Tokyo Electric Power Company planned 2.6 million kilowatts of power generation equipment tender thing, the Tokyo Electric Power Company will an aging oil-fired power equipment is replaced with the latest model of coal power generation equipment, the estimated annual savings of 175 billion yen (U.S. $ 1 = ¥ 94.22) fuel costs.

For the tender of the Tokyo Electric Power Company, the Japanese Ministry of Environment to control carbon dioxide emissions of coal thermal power cautious, but the Japanese Ministry of coal thermal power intends the basis of these estimates. The report said that 175 billion yen is equivalent to 3.1% of the annual expenditure of the Tokyo Electric Power Company.

If oil power generation to replace coal, Japan's annual carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 22 million tons, the producing provinces spend about 12 billion yen to be addressed, the Department of Natural Resources and Energy of Japan said that "from an economic point of view, coal power is clearly an advantage . "

Second only to Tokyo Electric Power Company, Japan's second largest coal consumer Chubu Electric Power Company has also said that this year's coal demand will remain stable.

To the moment of decision whether to restart the nuclear power

It is said that 11 nuclear reactors are expected to restart this year, six utility companies in Japan this fiscal year, consumption of fossil fuels is expected to decline 2.9%, but this is only a very optimistic estimate. In fact, Japan is currently the only two still running nuclear reactors will be held September down for maintenance, and accept more stringent new round of security checks, which make it difficult to re-run in the short term. However, analysts pointed out that despite a great deal of social pressure, the government should make two nuclear power plants before the end of the year "return to work".

The HSBC analyst Izumi Devalier, the end of 2014, Japan will restart the 10 reactors in Japan, which will save 500 billion yen in fuel costs, but also will greatly ease the pressure on government finances. Should restart the nuclear power, the attitude polarization of the Japanese people, the government also hesitant, but with the continued depreciation of the yen, energy imports increased expenditure, the Japanese government has to make a decision at the time. "