United States approaching the cliff. Japan debt be unwell

Congressional Republican Leader John Boehner, trying to launch its own deficit reduction program, as Obama less counter-proposal of the deficit plan. But the Republican bigwigs, the protagonist of the negotiations with the White House, could not in the party to coordinate the requirements of various forces, voting was canceled at the last minute. The Boehner Plan B Zhuiya the market worried about his party's leadership and mediation capacity, worried that Congress failed to pass the bill before the end of the year to avoid expenditure cuts of $ 600 billion tax increase takes effect automatically, worried that the U.S. economy plunged into a cliff. U.S. stocks fell, lost earlier in the week proceeds, risk assets for callback. The global stock market weakness, paradise government bonds by holding oil prices rose, gold dropped.

Boehner ingenuity, come up with a Plan B, the last clever anti cleverness, not only so that any of the the Republican Congressman leaders want to cast a shadow over early next year, but also the market suddenly realized that Boehner may not get the full support of the Party Members , the White House and congressional negotiations away from a farther distance reached consensus than imagined. My opinion, what happened last week will undoubtedly without vigilance market bang bar to drink, and the Congress can not be reached before the end of a consistent risk has increased, but in the end the White House and Capitol Hill agreed to launch a temporary mitigation measures to postpone Zhuiya has not changed much. In fact, the two parties on the tax increase, the position has been quite close to the White House program to 1.2 trillion, while Republicans insisted that no more than 1 trillion; the White House has been to raise taxes population increased to 40 million in annual revenue by $ 250,000. The Laya and Plan B, the White House immediately evolutions, called on Congress to downsize, will raise taxes in the highest income of 2% of the population, and unemployment benefits are limited to two million people in the most difficult. I believe This is a compromise can be reached, the election is over and the party struggles will, but not life and death, just the process ism, people to see.

Plans Laya, the White House immediately evolutions, called on Congress to downsize, will raise taxes in the highest income of 2% of the population, and unemployment benefits are limited to two million people in the most difficult. I believe This is a compromise can be reached, the election is over and the party struggles will, but not life and death, just the process ism, people to see. Japanese government bonds JGB write a new record last week, the foreign ownership of Japanese government debt reached 86 trillion yen (about one trillion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 9% of the total debt). This ratio is lower than the U.S. foreign investment accounted for 45% of level is undoubtedly a lot, but it is unprecedented in the history of Japan, and a large number of the Bank of Japan to buy JGB actually make the proportion is artificially reduced. Japan's debt-GDP ratio in the world all normal economy is the highest, is no reason why the outbreak of the debt crisis because JGB rests in the hands of the Japanese domestic financial institutions, these institutions are passive holding bonds, do not have a strong sense of risk, nor were capital flight signs, so speculators not afford to turn to. But the scale of Japan's debt is increasing deterioration in the profitability of the enterprises in overseas trade balance is more a structural deficit, an aging population began to decrease the savings rate to maintain the expenses. Japan's debt issuance will increasingly rely on overseas funds, and ultimately makes the JGB market is more affected by the influence and impact of overseas thought. Under such a background, the new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of unconventional fiscal expansion plans and stare inflation monetary policy is more likely to trigger point JGB crisis. Christmas Japanese government bonds this week JGB last week to write a new record, the foreign ownership of Japanese government debt reached 86 trillion yen (about one trillion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 9% of the total debt). This ratio is lower than the U.S. foreign investment accounted for 45% of level is undoubtedly a lot, but it is unprecedented in the history of Japan, and a large number of the Bank of Japan to buy JGB actually make the proportion is artificially reduced. Japan's debt-GDP ratio in the world all normal economy is the highest, is no reason why the outbreak of the debt crisis because JGB rests in the hands of the Japanese domestic financial institutions, these institutions are passive holding bonds, do not have a strong sense of risk, nor were capital flight signs, so speculators not afford to turn to. But the scale of Japan's debt is increasing deterioration in the profitability of the enterprises in overseas trade balance is more a structural deficit, an aging population began to decrease the savings rate to maintain the expenses. Japan's debt issuance will increasingly rely on overseas funds, and ultimately makes the JGB market is more affected by the influence and impact of overseas thought. Under such a background, the new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of unconventional fiscal expansion plans and stare inflation monetary policy is more likely to trigger point JGB crisis.

Into the Christmas holidays this week, trading volume and message flow estimate will be significantly reduced. The next two weeks, the biggest focus of course is the U.S. fiscal cliff, see American politicians will not the national interest is placed above the party struggles. The end of the non-agricultural employment in the United States, is expected to increase by +165 K, the unemployment rate remained at 7.7%. ISM should be slightly better than last month by Hurricane impact of digital. Minutes of the Fed, the low interest rates maintained until at least 2015, "remarks already clear, Aspect forecasts for growth and inflation. In Europe, PMI estimation improved. The Italian situation is still uncertain, Monty whether the election is still suspense. In Asia, China's PMI may be further improved.

The world's leading investment banks predict the foreign exchange market to 2013

Credit Suisse (Credit SuisseR):

Launched major central banks almost no differences in policy space, the major currencies in 2013 may continue rangebound pattern. Bank of Japan (BOJ) may be an exception, because the incoming new government after winning the general election to be held this month, intends to take a more forceful monetary easing measures. Even so, in the environment in the U.S. interest rates stable in the low, the Bank of Japan will strive to weaker yen, Credit Suisse said. Credit Suisse also pointed out that rekindled due to the debt crisis, the euro will also be re-emergence of severe shock, could fall to $ 1.25 by the end of 2013.

Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley):

The bank said 2013 yen weakness, expect the dollar rose to 92 yen at the end of next year. Morgan Stanley, said the Bank of Japan may take more aggressive easing stance, this should lead to a weaker yen. The bank also expects the Australian dollar fell sharply next year. More overseas investment outflow of funds may result in the Australian dollar lower, accompanying the Australian economy weakens, the decline in domestic interest rates.

Citigroup (Citi Group):

The bank believes that the U.S. dollar next year will not rebounded sharply, unless the United States to raise interest rates for the first time the possibility. In terms of the euro, the prospect of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, the economy continued weakness and inflation pressure by inhibiting means that investors may be inclined to sell the euro and buy the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar high-yielding currencies. However, the magnitude of fluctuations in the euro / dollar is expected to range of 10 cents, at 1.25-1.35. Increasing concerns around the euro zone, the exchange rate may be dropping as the low end of the range, but if this concern to ease the exchange rate may be on the high end of the probe interval. Citigroup also expects the yen to fall next year, but the Fed's low interest rate policy means that the yen minimum will drop to about 85 yen against the U.S. dollars.

BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas):

With U.S. policymakers to avoid falling fiscal cliff (taxes automatically increase spending automatically cut) agreement, the Fed continued to ease monetary policy, expect the dollar will continue the downward trend in the next year. The bank pointed out that the low interest rates in the United States also helps to prevent the yen continues to weaken, expect the dollar fell to 75 yen at the end of next year. The bank also said that the improvement of China's economic prospects for the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar and other commodity-related currency constitutes a positive.

Swiss banks (UBS):

The dollar is likely to become the best performing major currencies in 2013. What was the reason? First of all, it is expected that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.3% next year, while the euro zone, the United Kingdom and Japan's economy may be stalled, best only weak momentum of growth. In addition, the agency believes that the latest round of Fed easing monetary policy has been basically digested by the financial markets, unlike the European Central Bank, the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan, the central bank are expected next year will further expand the scale of asset purchases. UBS is expected by the end of 2013 the euro / dollar fell from 1.30 to 1.20, the dollar / yen will drop to 85.

Capital markets of the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Capital Markets):

2013 yen performance will once again be stronger than other currencies. The agency said that even greater intensity of the Bank of Japan easing monetary policy, the yen is also basically not affected by the agency as long as Japan continues to maintain a current account surplus; "default" is expected is the appreciation of the yen, with the general market Contrary to expectations. The line is expected to next year U.S. dollar / yen fell to 72, and is expected momentum of the euro / dollar rose to the second half of 2013 will be reversed, objectives, see 1.24. But the bank also said that the medium-and long-term outlook remains uncertain, the uncertainty and the impact of multiple political risk.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS):

2013 primary recommended sell pounds and buy dollars in transactions. Rebalancing of the UK economy has significantly lagged behind the previous forecast, the twin deficits and the fiscal and current projects seem to pose significant challenges to £ hedge currency low. The agency recommended to sell pounds and buy dollars, is expected to see $ 1.5050 GBP / USD target.

JP Morgan Chase (JP Morgan):

2013 trading environment still seems not to improve, especially if foreign exchange investment managers adhere to the so-called carry trades. In view of the developed economies and emerging economies, interest rates so low, many central banks against the strength of the local currency carry trade continue to prevail, the highest rate of return on the foreign exchange market can only reach 2%.

French bank Societe Generale (Societe Generale), (601,166, stock it):

Starting from mid-2013, the foreign exchange market is expected to enter a long-term upward trend. The Fed and the ECB will do anything for a long period of time, the economic problems faced by the latter. The agency expects the euro / dollar will drop to 1.19 by the end of next year.

Danske Bank (Danske):

In view of the major central banks are expected to further relax the policy, the foreign exchange market has formed a very suitable environment for the carry trade. Current problem only election arbitrage currency, whether in dollars or yen as a funding currency, the bank said in the context of the 2013 European emerging market currencies will be a good performance, the first choice is the Russian ruble, the Polish zloty and Hungarian Forint.

German commercial banks (Commerzbank):

Favor of the dollar more than the euro and the yen, because the Fed may be able to start the normalization of monetary policy as early as the central banks of Europe and Japan. The bank expects the euro will drop to $ 1.23 in 2013, and that the dollar / yen has considerable upside may break 90.

Barclays Capital (Barclays):

Against the Japanese yen, the situation has changed. Newly formed Japanese government would give the central bank greater mission to develop a higher inflation target, which led to the dollar / yen over the next six months rose to 88. The agency also said that the valuation should be concerned about, because this factor next year may be the driving force of the market; valuation distortions caused by the abnormal condition should start to amend in 2013, which means that the Australian dollar and other currencies easily affected.

When the United States is no longer imported oil ...

Imagine the oil world what will happen when Americans no longer imported oil? Global capital flows What happens? What will happen to the dollar? The geopolitical and what will happen? I believe that this is the largest financial market in the world in the next decade one of the three stories, and the distribution of its wealth, energy revolution, transportation to bring far-reaching impact.

Since the end of World War II, the United States became a net oil importing country, the need to account for 1/4 of the global oil trade, the U.S. position in the oil market can be described as pivotal.

However, an energy revolution is in full swing in North America. The scale of U.S. oil imports have been reduced to less than 10 million barrels from a peak of 20 million barrels per day,. This figure in the next few years will plummet, the International Energy Agency estimated that the U.S. will achieve oil self-sufficiency in 2035, I believe that the United States could become a net exporter of oil in 2022-2025 to.

In fact, conventional oil production in the United States itself is relatively stable, the current daily production of 810 million barrels, is expected to rise to 11 million barrels in 2020, followed by a slow fall. The change of the pattern of energy production in the United States, driven by the non-conventional energy. In 2020, oil production accounted for only 22% of the energy production in the United States, the remaining 78% comes from natural gas, unconventional oil and unconventional gas. Unconventional oil and unconventional natural gas from scratch, 60 percent of the entire energy production in the United States is expected to be accounted for in 2020.

The sudden emergence of shale gas production, the first elements of the changing pattern of U.S. energy production. Exploitation of unconventional natural gas in North America geographical environment technology has matured, and to quantify production gradually expand, is growing rapidly. But also due to a substantial decline in prices, new energy products in the U.S. market has been rapidly open. Has exceeded oil production of unconventional natural gas to the energy calculation, to become the largest U.S. energy supply source.

Light tight oil (light tight oil) led by unconventional oil, is another factor to change the U.S. energy landscape. Light tight oil production the horizontal mining and hydraulic fracturing technology, shale gas production technology of the same strain. Technological breakthroughs, so unheard of ten years ago, most people the energy conventional oil may be more than in 2020, to become the second-largest U.S. energy supply source.

At the same time, the energy-saving technologies and energy-saving regulations will be in a few years, significant compression U.S. demand for oil. The bio-oil, is another alternative energy elements. Once mature commercial technology, transportation and distribution channels fluent changes tend to be more violent than expected, faster, and its commercial applications of space often than originally imagined broader.

I predict that by 2020, the U.S. energy market will be conventional oil, a quarter of the world, the era of unconventional oil, conventional gas, unconventional gas, in which the proportion of non-conventional energy higher than conventional energy. United States beyond Russia in 2015 to become the world's largest natural gas-producing countries; beyond Saudi Arabia in 2017, to become the world's biggest oil-producing countries. American oil self-sufficiency will be reached in 2025, then became a net exporter of oil.

If the United States no longer need to import oil, which the world does that mean?

First, the sharp appreciation of the dollar. In the U.S. trade deficit, net oil imports accounted for 40%. Petroleum energy supplies from overseas toward domestic trade items bound for the United States to bring about structural changes inflection point for the troubled U.S. economy, finance, trade deficit, at least half solved. Dollar into the medium-and long-term appreciation of the track, is not surprised. In fact, in the now "worse than" the game, once a currency improving fundamentals, appreciation is not difficult.

Secondly, the redistribution of wealth. U.S. oil import demand change, and whether it will lead to oil prices plunged, is uncertain, depending on the increase in the demand of the emerging markets (especially China, India). I tend to believe that oil prices will fall. China's oil demand will continue to rise, but the period of the most rapid increase in the past may have been. Indian demand story, or the prophecy on paper. Weakening oil prices petrodollars of the Middle East is bound to a shock threat to public expenditure for the excessive expansion of the oil countries, wealth is transferred to the United States by the emerging countries, capital flows also change.

Furthermore, alternative energy is facing re-shuffling. Oil prices above $ 100, gave birth to the solar, wind and other alternative energy sources. A considerable part of these alternative energy subject to the constraints of the technology, market, pipeline and other factors, commercial applications are still difficult part of the enterprises in the after government subsidies boom, even pressure on cash flow. If the price of oil fell to $ 70 a barrel, most alternative energy independent living space will be lost.

Finally, geopolitical ecological change. U.S. police in the Middle East, where conflict and reconciliation for their own interests dominate. Today, U.S. oil imports from the Middle East has accounted for only 17% of its total imports (43% in China), and the small collected from the Canadian imports, even after five years may be lower than 10% (more oil imports from Brazil). Decreased significantly in the strategic position of the United States and the national interests in the Middle East. The next time the United States suffered greater casualties or setbacks in the Middle East, may shrink its military presence in the local. "Ten years later, in the Strait of Hormuz cruise should be Chinese warships, instead of U.S. warships," a U.S. State Department official says.

Analysis of the international economic situation in 2013

Looking to 2013, the international economic situation, mixed, overall will be better than 2012. Can be summed up in a few words: the United States a full recovery, the European debt crisis is bottoming out, emerging economies are still difficult and increases the risk of Japan. Specific analysis is as follows:

   United States. U.S. fiscal cliff just a false alarm, tax cuts continues, will also raise the deficit ceiling. The end of December 2012, the United States will once again in the global attention by monetary easing out of the woods. The financial cliff resolved, the U.S. economic situation will Yimapingchuan. The first half of 2013, the dollar depreciation trend will continue. The second half of the year, with the recovery of the real economy, real estate strong pick up, the increase in personal consumption, will attract large-scale international investment flows into the U.S. dollar started to rise, so as to promote the comprehensive recovery of the U.S. economy.

   The euro zone. The European debt crisis bottomed out in the first half of 2013. The early resignation of Italian Prime Minister to Spain a few strokes maturity of the debt, the French private debt risk of the release of bad events occurred prior to mid-2013. These things occur, the worst day of the European debt crisis would pass. With the election results of the 2013 German Chancellor dust settles, the euro zone economy will enter a slow recovery phase. Of course, this is a long and painful process. European welfare policy, the management mechanism of the euro zone, the economic recovery in the euro area have to face and solve the problem.

   Emerging economies. Emerging economies in 2013 will still be more difficult. Slow growth and inflation will exist. Make emerging economies external demand for long-term weakness of the European economy in the doldrums and the U.S. trade protection. Resource prices, rising labor costs and competitiveness of emerging economies will weaken. While slow growth, resource prices, rising labor costs in turn promote the domestic price increases. With the continued monetary easing in the United States and other developed countries, imported inflationary pressure in emerging economies has continued to exist. Emerging economies in 2013 will be slightly better than in 2012, but overall, it would be more difficult. Among them, China due to the transformation of the earlier, coupled with urbanization pulling, the soft landing will succeed. Relative to other emerging economies, is more optimistic.

   Japan. Liberal Democratic Party's election victory, marking the risk of the Japanese economy is on the rise. Liberal Democratic Party in "reviving the economy" as a slogan to win elections, but the Japanese economy in order to quickly revival is easier said than done. Japanese economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant leak and other events on the Japanese economy in 2011 has not yet been eliminated. The aging population, high sovereign debt issues facing Asian countries economic sanctions, and also a great impact on its economic development. Shinzo Abe inflation target raised twice tantamount to a gamble Originally economic development on the lack of power, but instead want to force development through devaluation. The Japanese politics utilitarian forcing Abe had to gamble once handled properly, the Japanese economy into a prolonged recession.

Barron launched in 2013 top ten stocks recommended, shares stocks rose 17% last year

This year, the U.S. stock market performance is very eye-catching, but we feel has never been so bad. Standard & Poor's 500 index finished the year up 12%, but a variety of uncertainties has been plagued investors, such as "financial cliff" tax increases as well as the high unemployment rate. So far this year, the capital of the U.S. stock market has been as high as $ 110 billion net outflows.

If these economic uncertainties that can not be eliminated, the stock market next year there will not be much change, the main problem faced by the investors will not be the broader market trend in 2013, but which stocks can rise.

The past three years, "Barron annually to investors at the end of ten recommended stocks. In 2013, the magazine selected blue chips, there are a number of SMEs in stock. Stocks selected this year are "Barron in the past year had recommended.

Last year, the magazine has predicted that the vast majority are very accurate, recommended 10 stocks lead the broader market by four percentage points last year, rose by an average of 17%, one of the most eye-catching is the hard drive manufacturer Seagate Technology and wireline network operators Conquest special, stock prices have risen more than 60 percent, the worst performance of the U.S. company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, the company's share price fell 22 percent this year, while almost half of the decline occurred in the last week, as investors $ 9 billion U.S. dollars to buy two energy companies have a negative reaction.

No matter what the market, even in the harsh environment, the good quality companies can always bring higher returns and income. This year, Barron's recommended the stock is expected to reach 15-20 percent next year, the total rate of return (including dividends). 10 stocks: Apple, Barnes & Noble, the Blackstone Group, General Dynamics, JP Morgan Chase, Marathon Oil, Novartis, Royal Dutch Shell, Viacom Inc., and Western Digital Company.

Olivia Culpo Wins Miss Universe 2012

Olivia Culpo crowed Miss Universe 2012

LAS VEGAS — A 20-year-old Boston University sophomore and a self-described "cellist-nerd" brought the Miss Universe crown back to the United States for the first time in more than a decade when she won the televised contest Wednesday.

Olivia Culpo beat out 88 other beauty queens to take the title from Leila Lopes of Angola during the two-hour competition at the Planet Hollywood casino on the Las Vegas Strip.

Culpo wore a tight navy blue mini-dress with a sequined bodice as she walked on stage for the competition's opening number. Later in the night, she strutted in a purple and blue bikini, and donned a wintery red velvet gown with a plunging neckline.

Culpo's coronation ends a long losing spell for the U.S. in the competition co-owned by Donald Trump and NBC. An American had not won the right to be called Miss Universe since Brook Lee won the title in 1997.

Culpo was good enough during preliminary competitions to be chosen as one of 16 semifinalists who moved on to compete in the pageant's finale. Her bid lasted through swimsuit, evening wear, and interview competitions that saw cuts after each round.

She won over the judges, even after tripping slightly during the evening gown competition. Telecasters pointed it out but also noted her poised recovery.

Minutes before the middle child of five was crowned, she was asked whether she had she had ever done something she regretted.

"I'd like to start off by saying that every experience no matter what it is, good or bad, you'll learn from it. That's just life," she said. "But something I've done I've regretted is probably picking on my siblings growing up, because you appreciate them so much more as you grow older."

Miss Philippines, Janine Tugonon, came in second, while Miss Venezuela, Irene Sofia Esser Quintero, placed third.

All the contestants spent the past two weeks in Sin City, where they posed in hardhats at a hotel groundbreaking, took a painting lesson, and pranked hotel guests by hiding in their rooms.

Culpo was the first Miss USA winner from Rhode Island when she took the national crown in Las Vegas in June.

She grew up in Cranston with two professional musicians for parents and has played the cello alongside world-renowned classical musician Yo-Yo Ma. On her Miss Universe page, she said she hopes to pursue a career in film or television, and cites Audrey Hepburn as a role model because of her "generosity, intelligence and grace."

With Culpo's promotion, Miss Maryland Nana Meriwether becomes the new Miss USA.

The Miss Universe pageant was back in Las Vegas this year after being held in Sao Paulo in 2011. It aired live on NBC and was streamed to more than 100 countries.

Organizers had considered holding the 61st annual Miss Universe in the popular Dominican Republic tourist city of Punta Cana, but Miss Universe Organization President Paula Shugart said that country's financial crisis proved to be too much of an obstacle.

The panel of 10 judges included singer Cee Lo Green, "Iron Chef" star Masaharu Morimoto and Pablo Sandoval of the San Francisco Giants.

Asked on the red carpet whether he found playing in the World Series or judging the beauty pageant to be more difficult, Sandoval said both were hard.

Sharply dressed women and men, including a large contingent from South America, held banners and cheered on their favorite contestants.

The pageant started as a local revue in Long Beach, Calif., organized by Catalina Swimwear. It is not affiliated with the Miss America pageant and unlike that contest, does not include a talent section.

Contestants in the pageant cannot have been married or have children. They must be younger than 27 and older than 18 by Feb. 1 of the competition year.

As Miss Universe, Culpo will receive an undisclosed salary, a wardrobe fit for a queen, a limitless supply of beauty products, and a luxury apartment in New York City.

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