euro zone intends to take a tough stance in the bank bailouts

British "Financial Times" dated January 14, entitled "The euro zone intends to take a tough stance in the bank bailout on articles, excerpts are as follows: 

See a proposal based on the British "Financial Times", faced with the the Banking collapse of the euro-zone countries, if you want to get any assistance from the euro zone's € 500 billion rescue fund will have to share a large part of the future bank bailouts task. 

Eurozone countries Treasury officials issued this plan in late 2012, will force troubled countries or the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) joint investment to the brink of failing banks or guarantee ESM without any loss. 

The plan to force troubled countries to share the burden, which is doubt EU leaders vow to break the "vicious cycle" between the failed bank and country governments. 

In Ireland, Cyprus and Spain, to rescue the bank required huge amounts of state funds, so the surge in the level of sovereign debt, forcing Ireland and the Government of Cyprus to accept a comprehensive government bailout, and the Spanish government to push the edge of a cliff to request similar to the rescue. 

Ireland and Spain, many people had hoped, reached in June last year by the ESM proposal of the so-called "direct recapitalization of banks on the verge of collapse, will become one of the major initiatives to change the rules of the game, and the cost of bank bailouts from the relevant national sovereign governments accounts transferred to the ESM, which is funded by all 17 euro-zone member states. 

Complete transfer of responsibility will eliminate one of the eurozone crisis most poisoned motivation to protect the sovereignty of the government bank bailouts overwhelms. For Ireland, the size of the bank bailouts of up to 40% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). 

However, the above-mentioned proposal drafted by the European Commission, there are financial resources of the country will force banks to inject state funds spent before any funds Xianxiang the verge of collapse in the ESM, to enable them to sustain. The bank rescue, if relevant countries facing insolvency, the Government will continue to have to "guarantee the ESM not subject to any loss", or ESM will be the return of all funds. 

Direct recapitalization of banks around the ESM political, the casual attitude of the member states has been evident for some time, the risk consulting firm Eurasia Group (22.44,0.52,2.37 percent) European analyst Mujie the Taba ・ pull Herman said, "we draw a line arrangements with banks and sovereign state leaders reached last June distance is very far." 

The eurozone senior officials refused to comment on the draft, but said EU leaders to let them come up with a final decision before June this year, the contents of the draft during this period are likely to be modified. 

This matter is particularly urgent for Ireland, the country's 67.5 billion euros of bailout funds will run out in November of this year. Irish officials increasingly clear that unless the government of the country to rescue their banks 64 billion euros of spending some sharing, otherwise they will be difficult to convince the bond market to meet this year's All funds need. 

According to the British "Financial Times" to see the plan, Ireland is expected to get some help from the ESM, although the specific amount is likely only in the country to rescue a small part of the two surviving banks 28 billion euros.

Fed expected U.S. economic growth up to 2.5% in 2013

Fed officials said the expected U.S. economic growth in 2013 was 2.5% up to 3.5% in 2014. Also this year, the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to decline to 7.4% next year, perhaps down to 7%.

Charles Evans, Fed officials made the forecast in the 14th. He said, and now the United States each month, the average employment of 150,000 people, but monthly distribution is very uneven. The new monthly employment able to reach 200,000 people, and the gap between the reduction in the monthly rate of economic growth this year is expected to reach 2.5%.

However, in view of the United States in December last year, the unemployment rate up to 7.8%, to mid-2015 or later, the unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% before, Evans said.

It is reported that U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2012 of 3.1%, analysts said the slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter compared.

The new U.S. Treasury Secretary accused of lack of financial experience with the Republican Party is incompatible

U.S. President Barack Obama will appoint Jack - Lu (Jack Lew), its chief of staff for a newly appointed Finance Minister of the message, it caused the various media to give lessons on the replacement of the Geithner. Jack - Lu has many years of experience in budget management, served as budget director in the Clinton and the Obama administration twice. He also served as a Citibank executive positions, including chief operating officer of global wealth management. A year ago, Lu succeed Bill - Dai Licheng White House director of the Office for the Obama administration.

However, the experience of the U.S. media telling them do not buy it, the comments that his lack of financial background and is incompatible with the Republican Party. Bloomberg first disclosure of the message of Lu, the most comprehensive "from the bottom. Reported that Lu Obama the perfect aide ", total more than others think a few steps - allegedly, Obama won re-election that night, all the staff officers were hugging each other and drink a toast, only the Lu openings disappointed Road "Next turn to a financial cliff negotiations."

Bloomberg reports also pointed out that Lu's tougher attitude toward the issue of the federal budget has than Obama. Debt ceiling negotiations in 2011, when the Republican health care plan proposed to low-income people in the conference call included in the sub-branches column reduction, Lu directly into the phone a few days did not have a good rest and shouted: "That's impossible!" In the process of dialogue with the opposition, Lu is also accused of "love to point out each other's mistakes, rather than negotiations," Republican leaders eventually proposed to replace discuss object.

The CNBC reports also highlighted the difficulties faced Lu served as finance ministers more "neutral" role. Reported that the Republican Lu regarded as one-sided Democrats, and good communication Geithner differ materially. CNN reported, citing the Alabama senator plug Shen Si (Jeff Sessions), said Lu "outrageous speech two years ago, before the Senate Budget Committee, determined not to be the new Finance Minister," seen with Republicans the grudges's deep.

In addition, the 57-year-old Lu also think that the lack of experience in the field of business and international financial The Bloomberg article said, and his predecessor, Lu did not help to solve the debt crisis in Europe and the Sino-US trade relations background. The Truman Show (Ted Truman), Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Bloomberg that Lu "to European leaders take to introduce ourselves". In its decades of his career, Lu had only briefly as a Citibank senior positions in American business, "the stranger" is also regarded as another short board. "American business is not know him very well," CEO of the U.S. Los insurance Dixi (Jim Tisch). "Based on the current level of corporate tax, the boss might not like him."

"Huffington Post" review article pointed out that Lu Ruocheng Treasurer, means that the Obama administration will weaken in the second term to continue the implementation of the financial reform plan. The article pointed out that, in addition to the United States is facing debt ceiling negotiations, the Treasury Secretary's responsibilities also include the management of the financial sector, in order to prevent another financial crisis is making the same mistakes, while Lu is the apparent lack of qualification.

The article quoted Greenberg, Professor of Law at the University of Maryland (Mike Greenberger), said Lu "very smart, fair, but not a market expert." Greenberg believes that too much hustle and bustle of the discussions about the budget, let people forget the financial the importance of reform. In addition, Lu attitude of financial regulation may also indicate that it does not take advantage of the identity of the finance ministers and Wall Street rivalry - he had said at a Senate hearing in 2010, the "deregulation" in the financial sector is not a financial crisis the fuse.

Nevertheless, there are still many observers even behind Lu is its ability to make a positive. "He has been the performance of the whole A", "Wall Street Journal" quoted Lu as saying former colleagues. After all, he has twice served as budget director, to the current view of the difficulties faced by the federal government, who else can better prepared?

Why not as good as 22 years ago, the average income of American families?

The data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American family median income of $ 50,054, in 2011 the value of the dollar, this number is lower than the 1989 level of $ 50,624. This is somewhat surprising, because we know the stage of the network economic boom in the 1990s, the United States is in the Clinton years, there was a wave of strong economic growth period, why income levels have actually not as good as 1989 it?

    U.S. media said, suggesting that the American middle class is more than experienced a lost decade, but two lost decade. The biggest reason, of course, after the dotcom bubble burst in 2000, the U.S. economy has not really out of the doldrums, the financial turmoil of 2008 has brought greater blow, the unemployment rate in this three or four years would be no less than 8%.

    From the latest data, the status of the U.S. economy has not significantly improved. 2011 household median income fell by 1.5% over the previous year. House four years receive $ 23,021 poverty line, in 2011, 4620 million people below the poverty line, the poverty rate is 15%, no change. 4860 million people without health insurance, a slight decrease.

    Economists analysis, resulting in the past 22 years the United States income decreased rather than increased, there are several factors. From foreign competition in the era of globalization, the cheaper imported products instead of labor-intensive industries of the United States, the impact of rapid technological progress with some of the original medium-wage jobs, such as the popularity of bank automated teller machines to some extent replaced bank counter cashier. While Americans generally benefit from the era of globalization, trade and investment development and technological progress, but the imbalance in the flow of the interests of the many low-skilled workers unemployed, could not get the right skills retraining to become this era losers.

    The tax policy of the United States in the past 10 years is basically tilted to the rich, the amplitude of the minimum wage increases to keep up the progress of inflation, expanding the gap between the rich and the poor. Reflect the income gap, the Gini index, 2011 is 0.477, expanding by 1.6% over the previous year, since 1993, the Gini index in the United States has been expanding. The famous economist Joseph Stiglitz said, the the rich sustainable access to large tax cuts, will lead to lack of investment in infrastructure, education and technology, constraining economic growth.

    Conservative economists will economic slowdown attributed to the size of government is too big, too many rules, too much debt, too good public welfare, thus moving to a European-style welfare state. Played much of a role in government in the economy, the emphasis on an industry, the expense of another industry.

    The Census Bureau also mentioned two other factors, an aging U.S. population, in general Americans retirement income will be reduced, and the other one is the U.S. economy is in the recovery process new jobs and more low-paid jobs. So pull down the average income of Americans in general.

    The economic observers also noted that, despite the government welfare system in the United States has been heavily criticized, but if there is no gold system of the United States Social Security, the United States live below the poverty line may be increased by 2140 people, especially the elderly over 65 years old, the poor may The increase of $ 14.5 million. The question is, How long can this living beyond the Social Security system?

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi: The euro zone is gradually back on track

Release rate decision by the ECB President Mario Draghi (Mario Draghi) immediately held a press conference, market participants, there are some doubts and answers on the following questions:

Draghi pointed out that the parties are indeed different opinions on this issue, but in fact, in many countries paid a huge sacrifice for the austerity of the euro-zone countries is causing too many negative results, whether it should be reined in, indeed begun to harvest some of the fruits, therefore, now halfway and come to naught in the austerity measures unnecessarily. He pointed out that, in any case, the crunch is inevitable.

Mario Draghi also said that some of the provisions of of Basel (c) agreement in the recent changes made to hold a recognized attitude that the parties previously for some of the measures taken by the Agreement, is basically taking into account all aspects of the Hip real situation .

For the problem of unemployment, Draghi pointed out that the unemployment rate is an important consideration for monetary policy measures taken by the European Central Bank. Next, the European Central Bank will do further analysis of the distinction between cyclical and structural unemployment. He also pointed out that the degree of mobility of the eurozone unemployment is very low, and thus to improve the unemployment situation through monetary policy and can not play much effect.

Draghi also pointed out that, from the point of view of monetary and financial stability, the euro area is gradually returning to normal, but the overall speed of recovery is still slow, therefore, the European Central Bank will continue to pay close attention to the situation of many weak links in the euro area financial system, take timely remedial measures to prepare for the eventuality in the future.

In addition, Draghi said the ECB will not consider the removal of the unconventional rescue measures, but in the economic conditions permit, these measures will indeed be gradually be lifted. However, the premise of the removal of the unconventional measures in addition to the financial markets to stabilize first, there must be fit enough for a full economic recovery, while the European Central Bank is expected that a full economic recovery until at least the second half of 2013 can be achieved.

Draghi pointed out, the present, the euro area real economy status earlier in December last year, when compared to the European Central Bank to make the judgment did not undergoing any change, so no reason to modify the medium-term price stability target, thus, All members of the European Central Bank agreed to maintain existing monetary policy unchanged, that is, something in the inevitable. He pointed out that the central bank members agree, meaning that in fact no one has raised the rate cut move.

In addition, market conditions, Draghi pointed out various peripheral countries of the euro area bond yields and sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) prices are in decline, at the same time, the European stock markets continued to rise, while the level of market volatility was at historic lows, these conditions are a marked improvement compared to last September. At the same time, a large number of international investment funds to enter the European market also has reflux.

Draghi stressed at the same time, continue to carry out the reform measures designed to strengthen competition and improve the competitiveness of the market is still quite necessary, at the same time, try to take measures to improve the employment market status is imperative. Once the reform is complete, expected to strengthen the growth potential of the euro area economy as a whole, and at the same time to improve the employment situation.

And he said, in order to ensure that the ECB's monetary policy measures can be effectively transmitted to the financial markets, strengthening the banking license audit current imperatives. Banks to maintain a good balance sheet, will ensure the economic field to lose speed enough credit liquidity, and the status of the various financing channels gradually returning to normal.

At the same time, he pointed out, Europe parties has taken a solid step in the further integration of the financial system, the banking industry alliance the final shape will not an issue. Future single banking regulatory mechanism, is an important part of the banking industry alliance system, and further integration of the banking system has a decisive significance.

Draghi also admitted that the outlook for the euro-zone economy is still facing considerable risks, major risk factors, including the slow structural reform measures in place, the economic imbalance between the global geo-political crisis, as well as industrialized countries. Thus affect the time for confidence longer than expected, and the prospects for recovery in private investment, employment and consumption continue stagnant.

He thus promised, downturn in economic growth in the euro zone will still continue to follow the situation in the entire 2013. The uncertainty of the balance scale adjustment process in the financial and non-financial sector in the economic field, as well as internal its external news of the situation, will the economic activities remain under pressure situation, but in late 2013, the level of economic activity is expected to gradually picked up.

Draghi concluded that the euro zone continued to drop in the past few months to reconcile the inflation rate (HICP), the situation is basically in line with expectations, and this year, the inflation rate may eventually drop to less than 2% of the control objectives, Thus, the policy level, the inflation pressure is still limited.

Europe and the United States rich tax avoidance Great Escape. France average day a rich flight

"Cyrano" on the well-known French actor Gerard Depardio, to circumvent the French high a tax abjure French nationality, opt-Russian citizenship, and a time to become an international spotlight. Said the French "Le Monde", "200 years ago, the French nobility to flee their country because of the guillotine, they fled the French tax and minority like Depardio this" tax refugee ", 75% in France income tax with Russia between the 13% income tax, they, without hesitation, chose Russia. The recent 4,500 French, 4200 German, 1920 Finns, the 1880 Italian Russian citizenship, most of which are more than 10 million dollars in assets Regal. In 2011, the same nearly 1,800 richest renounced his U.S. citizenship and green card, and the same for the avoidance considerations, three years ago, six times that figure.

Data 

The ten thousand Regal renounced 

German magazine Der Spiegel simply the Depardio such as tax avoidance to flee the country known as "tax refugee". In recent years, the United States, France, Germany and other European countries the rich have because the unbearable high a tax abandon the nationality of the new trend. In the United States, for example, starting from January 1 this year, up to a file income tax rate from 35% to 39.6%. Most countries is much lower than the tax rate. Western Europe is even higher, the average most high-end tax rate is 46%, is the place with the highest tax rate in the world. French income tax rate increase up to a file, the program will obviously make the average in Western Europe and most high-end tax rates rise further. 

Today like Depardio such "tax refugee" and a minority, they aimed at the lower tax rate countries, Russia, Belgium. The recent 4,500 French, 4200 German, 1920 Finns, the 1880 Italian Russian citizenship, most of which are more than 10 million dollars in assets Regal. 

Americans also are increasingly willing to settle overseas. The Wall Street Journal said, the new census data show that in 2011, nearly 4% of the population (11.8 million people) in the United States live in other countries, the highest level reached since the recession in 2008. Which nearly 1,800 people directly choose to give up his U.S. citizenship and green card. Experts say, in part because the United States is one of the few in the world to one of the countries the citizens overseas income tax. 

Phenomenon 

France: flight per day a rich 

France's rich flight can be traced back to the 1980s. Mitterrand government was ruling in 1981, the first introduction of a rich tax, including actor Alan Drilon French rich began to choose as his own residence in Switzerland and Belgium. Hollande government came to power after the annual income of more than $ 1.3 million applicable up to file income tax rate from the current 46.7% to 75%, and all of a sudden intensification of the contradiction. 

The rich tax levied in France for the annual income of more than € 1 million people, the crowd involved about 60 million, accounting for about one percent of France's total population. Altogether, in 2011, this part of the population to the French government paid more than 4.5 billion euros in tax revenue. 

These high-income earners to flee from France, led to about 80 billion to 100 billion of assets lost to overseas. French high incomes who choose to flee the country of destination, Switzerland is the most popular, followed by Belgium and the United Kingdom. Bernard Arnault, chief executive officer of the French luxury goods giant Louis Vuitton [microblogging] (LV) of the application last year, the Belgian nationality. Such as 德帕尔迪厄, select France, Russia, rich minority, opened the lid of the rich fled together with of his openly challenge the French government, only to the outside world. 

德帕尔迪厄 aged 64, starred in the movie "Cyrano de Bergerac" became popular in the world. He went to the end of the year in the media published an open letter to the Prime Minister of France, said some people criticized him and moved to the neighboring countries in order to escape the the high "rich tax" Belgium is "an insult", he will give up French citizenship. 

United States: the change of nationality must first pay taxes 

Geneva, Switzerland, the overseas American Association secretary Andy Sundh Berry said that in 2011, about the 1880 Americans migrated overseas to the United States embassy to give up their U.S. citizenship, while in 2008 only 235. Songde Berry's data from the Bureau of the Federal Register of the United States Government. As Americans waiting in line to give up the passport, the U.S. embassy in the Swiss capital, Bern, redeployment of manpower, in order to deal with the backlog of applications. 

In 2012, billionaire Facebook co-founder Sa Weilin also joined the ranks of renouncing U.S. citizenship to become a permanent resident of Singapore. 

But experts say that, renouncing U.S. citizenship is a more bother laborious and costly process. Before expatriation, those people of the net asset value of more than $ 2 million may also be required to pay an "exit tax" assets in the United States to follow the abandonment of the market price of the nationality of the day before tax, specific requirements may be complex, and because people. 

UK: the rich often midnight before returning home 

The British Regal Richest Americans compared to a lot of happiness, because they do not have their own overseas income tax, also because of this, they had more loopholes in the law can drill. British "The Times" in June last year, has launched a series of investigations article, "the rich tax avoidance secret" reported rich tax evasion, tax evasion or tax avoidance method. 

A Jersey base tax evasion scheme each year to help these rich tax evasion as much as 168 million pounds (about 1.68 billion yuan). The report said that, in the celebration of the 60th anniversary of Britain's Queen ascended the throne on the performances of the famous comedian Jimmy Carr Jersey program annually tax evasion of 3.3 million pounds (about 33 million yuan), in addition to about 1,100 people to take this approach. 

Some Regal drill legal loopholes to evade tax liability, a rich often at night plane departed British airspace after midnight, and then returned to British airports. UK current tax law, the time living in the UK each year not more than 90 days, if no tax is payable; remaining 275 days before midnight outside the UK can also pay no taxes. 

Controversy 

Many people lose the entrepreneurial drive 

Paris, a small business owners bluntly: "deformities such a tax system so that France suffering from a serious illness, you need to pay more taxes, you completely lose the entrepreneurial drive." But the French working-class do not think so, they insist The rich should have basic citizenship and social responsibility. 

However, the French magnates retorted, "the state should not a little bit".Depardio practitioners since turned over to the French € 145 million in tax, it is not too much? The 5th of this month, the latest polls show that 60% of French people in favor of a higher tax rate, but the majority of people think that the high rate of 75% is really outrageous, many people think should be in the range of 50% to 75% is more reasonable. 

For the French government, tax increases for the wealthy also are upset. After another hit by the international financial crisis and the European debt crisis, France's weak economic growth, the gap between rich and poor is widening, and increased social discontent. French business people in general worry that high personal income tax and other tax increases would force high-income people to leave France, to combat the confidence of foreign investors. 

But the rich tax is not unique to France. In the 2012 State of the Union address, Obama also raised the levy have to be into the millions of dollars the rich years, "Buffett tax". Rich tax rate will be initially set at 30% or more. Many studies show that social and economic development to a certain extent, people are increasingly concerned about the problem of fair distribution. This is a common law countries. The United States pursued before the market economy and the principle of small government, so the government only slightly involved in the issue of income redistribution. In fact, this practice is being challenged from all sides. Today, more and more perfect in social welfare, the poor in the United States often find themselves and their families are increasingly vulnerable. In particular the impact of the financial crisis, many ordinary people's livelihoods are deteriorating. Therefore, the American and European countries require government concerned with redistribution issues are increasingly vocal. 

Consequence 

The World Wealth hiding 129000000000000 

In addition to the change of nationality, in fact, the rich have more secret means of tax avoidance. The enormous wealth of the British newspaper The Times late last year have been disclosed, the difference between the use of cross-border taxation system of the world's super-rich offshore hiding value of 13 trillion pounds (about 129 trillion yuan), this amount is nearly three of China's GDP times. 

This data is to come in a new report from the former chief economist James Henry and an avoidance research experts in the consulting firm McKinsey report detailed statistical analysis of this new tax evasion. The report pointed out that, under the help of the private banks, there are at least 13 trillion pounds, or even as high as 20 trillion pounds (about 198.4 trillion yuan) flows from multiple countries like Switzerland and the Cayman Islands this secret area. 

Henry pointed out that the rich people in order to avoid tax, at a highly paid professional experts to employ some of the private banking sector, the legal profession, the accounting industry and investment industry. They wantonly increasingly borderless world economy, no friction to evade taxation. According to Henry, the top 10 private banks, including Union Bank of Switzerland, Credit Suisse and U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs in 2010, handling more than four trillion pounds funds, more than five years ago 1.5 trillion pounds has improved a lot. 

Panic on Wall Street indices fell to 5.5-year low

Debt crisis in Europe and the United States debt-ceiling issue is still not resolved, prospects for global economic recovery remains uncertain, investors are increasingly optimistic about the prospects for global stock markets, measure the VIX index of market panic fell to lows of nearly 5.5 years.

9th us stock trading, VIX index at one point fell to 13.2 points, the highest since June 2007, a new low. VIX index, also known as "panic on Wall Street indices", can to some extent reflected the market's optimism, lower the index value represents market optimism.

Noteworthy is that in addition to the VIX index, risk aversion in Europe by the VStoxx index CME and reflect the global currency market volatility of crude oil (93.04,-0.78,-0.83%) option implied volatility index (CVIX) are close to the lowest since mid-2007.

Many central banks "gate opening water" led to the second half of 2012 of investor optimism rise, signs of improvement in global financial markets. United States Chief investors strategist at Wells Capital Management, Mr Paulson said, these indicators are low variable wide range reflected the global economic recovery, financial markets are more stable. Fund managers said, VIX index hit multi-year lows reflected investors think central banks will introduce measures to support financial markets, investors returned to the stock market from the bond market also contributed to the market's optimism. However, analysts believe that, in view of the debt situation in Europe and the United States debt ceiling discussions about the Outlook, well below the current VIX index doesn't make sense. Market data showed that in June 2007, the VIX index also appeared less than 14 points, followed by United States subprime mortgage crisis erupted.