Canadians why their resources geese are swans

The last week of each year, the minimum period of Canadians working actively, because only a handful of days, is sandwiched between the Christmas and New Year's Day two statutory holidays, many people took the opportunity to take leave to rest, even insist on work also down-hearted.

However, this did not prevent the politicians, the media, non-governmental organizations and indigenous groups is a sensitive investment cases in arms: a company called MMG Mining plans to invest in the development of northeastern Canada in the Arctic Circle Neinu Na Wu in 2013 the Yi Suoke Lake, where the construction of large-scale mining centers and supporting infrastructure.

MMG Mining is a Chinese state-owned enterprises - Minmetals Resources, a subsidiary registered in Australia, although the company claims, once the project is launched, and bring 1,100 temporary jobs will now sparsely populated, economically backward areas, and more will be created after completion of 710 permanent jobs; industrial Although development Yi Suoke Lake Xinu Na Wu special area for the center, this is the established policy of the Government of Canada's federal and Nunavut. However, the advance of the project is still difficult.

Opponents counter reason, including damage to the environment, affect caribou survival, is not conducive to sustainable development, "and so on, but as many local commentators have pointed out, the reason of course there are, but the most fundamental reason Canadian geese are swans, their resources to foreign companies, especially foreign state-owned enterprises to meddle in the country's natural resources have a strong resentment.

Chinese people this Canadian "national resource control" can be described as impressed: CNOOC's $ 15.1 billion acquisition of Canada Nixon Oil 66% equity trading case since late July last year, it caused an uproar in Canada, the opposition "opaque approval process" grounds Walking hearing process in Canada (which would mean a long wait time and endless agonizing), the intelligence department to move out of the commonplace, but as yet no case of the empirical theory of economic espionage " claimed that the merger would "pose a threat to Canada's national security", the ruling party's opponents to China's "authoritarian problem again," human rights issues ", the media and think tanks take public opinion that matter (October polls show 58% of Canadian respondents were opposed to the awful merger, 78% of Canadians were opposed to the merger of all foreign state-owned resource companies in Canada, only 12% support awful merger, Nixon company headquarters Carl Gary, the proportion of respondents who opposed the merger once as high as 63%.), all in a word - can not sell. Although this transaction is ultimately in the efforts of the Harper government Albert provincial government, the company is located, as well as the Nixon shareholders on December 7 last year, able to be approved, leaving behind the "Never again" and "This is not to betray their own resources start but the end of the "severe tail.

Some domestic commentators felt that the Canadians are prejudiced against China and the Chinese state-owned enterprises, but in fact not the case.

Almost simultaneously with CNOOC - Nixon case, the Petronas in progress oil companies, the acquisition of Calgary, Canada, for $ 5-6 billion deal is much smaller than the CNOOC - Nixon merger, the relationship between Malaysia and Canada also very close, but the fate of this acquisition is not even such as CNOOC - Nixon: October 19, the Federal Ministry of Industry of Canada announced that the case "does not comply with the Investment Canada Act, the provisions' must bring significant benefits to Canada 'Standard' newspaper rejected, though later reverse the verdict, and ultimately the same in the December 7 "release, but can not but stick CNOOC - Nixon suspected of" Never again "light.

And even "close ally" in Canada belong to the Commonwealth of Australia, its state-owned enterprises trying to meddle in the country's natural resources in Canada, it will not get good face: in October 2010, one of the world's top three mining enterprises - BHP Billiton launched for Canada potash merger, the total amount of $ 390-423 one hundred million U.S. dollars, if successful, will be Canada's largest-ever worldwide are also a handful of large transactions (merger than CNOOC - Nixon almost half times as large scale ), but the deal eventually under heavy sniper in the Canadian federal and provincial abortion, BHP Billiton to face Canadians smug "how much money do not sell iron plate, can only feel powerless and frustrated.

So, exactly why is this?

Canada is sparsely populated, resource-nation, despite the established industrialized countries, but its economy in recent years, increasingly dependent on resource industries, only in the case of oil, according to the Canadian federal Department of Energy, the oil industry's share of Canada's federal economic weight 1974 only 7% to 10% in 1980, in recent years, stable at about 11%, it is expected that more will rise to 15% in 2015. In addition to the natural resources of oil, potash, uranium, zinc and other minerals, as well as cork products are an important part of the Canadian economy. In layman's terms, the Canadians, the resources of their jobs and lifeblood, so that their own jobs and lifeblood lies in the hands of foreign governments, in their opinion, it is the very thing the insurance, such as potash , the outsider, the Canadian potash company unhurried development, sales really throwaway equal to guarding the golden bowl to eat, but the local government, the eyes of the public, to do so can be firmly in control of the international pricing of potash son succeeding generations for the benefit of, to earn a long-term money, and if accepted "The Proposal" BHP Billiton, which White is bound to expand production capacity in the international market price dumping tantamount to killing the goose that lays the golden eggs, in terms of the local.

Moreover, the natural resources in Canada distribution is uneven, such as Canada's top priority core industries - oil sands refining industry in recent years, on the Midwest Alberta, the richest, and the more extreme the potash industry, supply more than half of the global market, by both belong to a the Canpotex consortium's Canadian potash and two smaller firms Agrium and Mosaic control, the more valuable ore almost all concentrated in the central part of Saskatchewan. Large dispersion, small settlements "mode makes oppose the mergers and acquisitions advice Once formed, with a very strong cohesion, xenophobia and self-protective, not only local government dare not vague (or certainly step down), the federal government must solemnly (Canada is a parliamentary cabinet offended mining area voters means not even think about the House of Commons seats in the constituency).

Another should not be overlooked, environmental and aboriginal forces.

Canada is the kingdom of active environmental organizations, radical environmental organization "Greenpeace" on the origin, many of them against the exploitation of natural resources, more opposed to foreign state-owned development, Aboriginal organizations on the development of "own resources" often have reservations about their enterprise) impact vigilant psychological, sometimes also including all "foreign" ("outside". Opposite distribution of mineral resources, the distribution of environmental forces and indigenous forces, "everywhere", the absolute number is not more than anywhere, but everywhere, and the total number of substantial, they are unable to say "no", but enough to use their ballots acquisition of Canadian resources to foreign state-owned enterprises, the development of set of obstacles, and public opinion made large. Prolific self-inland due to the oil sands of Canada, regardless of the south-exports to the United States, or westward over the Rocky Mountains, exports to the Pacific (5.39, -0.08, -1.46%) coastal port shipped should be laying pipelines, pipeline along steadily indigenous tribes and environmental groups "blocking", it has become a common landscape.

Of course, the mentality of Canadians is contradictory: on the one hand, they are not willing to sacrifice precious natural resources, on the other hand, their economy is becoming more dependent on the output of natural resources, which they often reflect in the polls for foreign acquisitions attitude repeated contradictions, not only different mergers and acquisitions, and even the same merger at different times, there may be different results of the poll.

Canada's federal ruling party - Federal Conservative stronghold in mining concentrated Albert prairie three provinces, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is the mining giant stronghold concentrated Alberta Calgary elected members of Congress, understanding the importance of resource exports more profound, in recent years, especially the desire to increase resources and development efforts, and try to get rid of dependence on the U.S. market, market diversification, the fact of foreign state-owned enterprises mergers and acquisitions often "too hard". As mentioned earlier, but deep-rooted resistance to acquisition of foreign state-owned national resources, and different motives pressure, the ruling party and the government dare not go too far too hasty pace. According to legend, the Investment Canada Act this year will be significantly modified, the acquisition of Canadian businesses of all foreign state-owned enterprises will face greater scrutiny, the new changes will significantly reduce the foreign private capital standards required for approval of the acquisition of Canadian company equity from 3.3 billion plus yuan more than the required approval, changed to the more than one billion Canadian dollars, but has remained the same standards for foreign state-owned enterprises.

It is worth mentioning that, even if the new regulations take effect, but the not the beginning of the article mentioned the Yi Suoke Lake development projects, because it is not equity mergers and acquisitions, but direct investment. However, as long as the culture and habits of this national resource geese are swans, foreign state-owned enterprises times tentative, "checkpoints" and "walking a fine line, and will be forced to remedy the situation one after another new" inhibition "sequential introduction.

Russian government officials to declare their assets is just a game

Russian government officials to declare property income bill implemented, is intended to strengthen the legal system and the promotion of social justice. The country has the grace period of six months, so that the corrupt officials she had to deal with illegal private property. The official worry, the government officials will use their power to defend their personal interests at all costs. People questioned officials overseas the assets secretive difficult investigation, to declare their assets and can not curb corruption breeding.

, Russian government officials to declare their assets revenue laws amendment came into effect on January 1, 2013. This means that from now on, all civil servants in Russia, the Duma, the Federation Council members and staff of the National Authority shall be owned overseas bank accounts, marketable securities and other property.

The main push behind the bill hands (Вячеслав Лысаков) - Vice-Chairman of the Drafting Committee of the Constitution of the Russian Duma Fortaleza Primakov has said the government officials to declare their property income is one of the major initiatives of the moment Russia to promote high-level government Fight Against Corruption. He advocated by the bill's main purpose is to strengthen the legal system and the promotion of social justice. In Russia, many senior government officials openly shouting patriotic but secretly a steady stream to the transfer of its assets and exit. Therefore, the introduction of this bill at this time, to study the national civil service person of integrity standards and put an end to the corrupt behavior will play a role.

It is reported that Russia will appoint national institutions, such as the Russian Financial Supervision Bureau, the Federal Security Service, Department of the Interior Bureau of economic security, as well as other state's power sector supervision Enforcement Act, because the government officials to declare their overseas property, not just economic issues, more related to national security. So, the offender has been caught and can be sentenced to five years in prison and a fine of 10 million rubles (equivalent to 3.3 million U.S. dollars).

Resa Primakov said, the bill stipulates that those already abroad to open an account and have assets of officials, the country grace period of six months, to deal with the illegal private property, which could perhaps be considered on the national policy of a charitable spirit, however, the policy will at the end of June 2013, it fails to do its own treatment will face legal punishment.

Involvement in the bill in the State Duma addition-A officials Feideluofu (Евгений Федоров) pointed out that the government officials to declare their assets Revenue Act came into effect, with the United States "Magnitsky Act" tit-for-tat imply. In the past six months, the state authorities will be monitoring the progress of the officials in handling overseas assets at any time. He also points out the names of the three ministers of Russia, because they are private residences in Europe: "open government" Contact Minister Abyzov (Михаил Абызов), former Minister of Culture of Ah Fu quarter Aliyev (Александр Авдеев) and Presidential Plenipotentiary Helu Boning by Александр Хлопонин.

Back in February 2012, the Russian Federal Security Service began registration staff overseas assets, and registration is completed within a month. The Federal Security Service personnel need to accept foreign heritage gift in one week within the bureau to make property antecedents description to confirm acceptance of gifts of property does not come from foreign security agencies.

For a long time, Russia's top corruption is rampant, and almost 50% of the Duma has private accounts in overseas banks and have personal assets. Therefore, self-government officials to declare their assets, income bill announced that since the implementation of the Russian folk strongly questioned the feasibility of the implementation of the bill, and even the Russian State Duma Security Committee the Vice Chairman Gutekefu (Геннадий Гудков) have no confidence. He said government officials to declare their overseas property, forcing them to use their power to defend their personal interests at all costs, so the introduction of this motion is nothing more than to detonate a bomb on top of the political arena, there must be casualties.

It seems that both civil and questioned or official worries, senior officials in overseas ownership of assets is groundless. Some Russian officials overseas are not directly owned assets, but indirectly owned in trust, as they owned real estate assets, overseas real estate rental income conveyed to the beneficiary, that is, their children or relatives.

Acknowledged that officials overseas assets survey project, once launched, are numerous and complex, it goes without saying that the Russian Duma. Moreover, let government officials to declare their assets income who really cooperate with the investigation? Russia has officials secretly once they are overseas personal assets are found, they will make use of the human rights provisions of the Charter of the United Nations, to fight a battle to defend private property from infringement.

The Moscow State Higher School of Economics professor library Venturi gold (Павел Кудюкин), the international inspectors state officials overseas assets has always been difficult, and even the United States is no exception. Russian government officials overseas asset position is extremely secretive and difficult to identify. So, the government officials to declare their assets Revenue Act, a blank cartridge, both fried undead corrupt, can not curb corruption, its symbolic significance is much greater than the actual meaning.

To put it bluntly, officials to declare their assets is just a game.

Buffett's donation of $ 3.09 billion last year, accounting for 60% of the United States the amount of donations

American non-profit organization The Chronicle of Philanthropy Tuesday released the 2012 America's wealthiest charity list shows that God shares Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett) 2012 years of charitable pledges reached $ 3.09 billion, a person accounted for 60% of the nation's charitable donations.

The list, released Tuesday, a total of Statistics 15 pen charitable donations or pledges totaling $ 5.1 billion, the highest value since 2008 ($ 8,000,000,000). But Buffett one exclusive three pens, a total of up to $ 3.09 billion, the organization said, if the removal of Buffett's donation, 2012, contributions will be less than $ 2.6 billion in 2011.

Zuckerberg on December 18 this year to the Silicon Valley Community Foundation donated nearly $ 500 million, to become this year's donation came second U.S. billionaire.

The following amount of donations for this year's list of billionaires and their actual contributions or commitments:

Buffett: $ 3.09 billion

Zuckerberg: $ 498 million

Microsoft [microblogging] co-founder Paul Allen (Paul Allen): 3 billion U.S. dollars

Publishing and real estate the big Hengmotimo Zhake Man (Mortimer Zuckerman): 2 billion U.S. dollars

The Coe Manufacturing former boss Fred Fields (Fred Fields): $ 150 million

Investor Carl Icahn (Carl Icahn, who): $ 150 million

Former insurance industry executives and filmmakers David Gund the Rudge (David Gundlach): $ 140 million

Nike chairman Phil Knight (Phil Knight) and his wife: $ 125 million

Venture capitalist Michael Moritz (Michael Moritz) and his wife: $ 116.4 million

Entertainment executive David Geffen (David Geffen): 1 billion U.S. dollars

Investor John Paulson (John Paulson) and his wife: 100 million U.S. dollars

Businessman David of Sarkozy (David the Koch): $ 60 million

James Simmons (James Simons), a technology industry entrepreneur and his wife: $ 60 million

Trade protectionism can not save the selfish

The World Trade Organization recently predicted that the global trade in 2012 grew by only 2.5%, is not only lower than in 2011, and less than half the average of the past 20 years. There are indications that in the future a certain period of time, trade protectionism towards normalization.

Back in early 2009, the WTO set up a working group dedicated to tracking new trade measures taken by each member, and then publish the report in order to increase the transparency of policies to reduce the practice of countries to take trade protection. Although WTO members have pledged to resist trade protectionism, eliminate trade barriers, while avoiding the creation of new barriers for investment and trade in goods and services, imposing new export restrictions, implemented in various fields, including measures to stimulate exports initiatives violation of WTO rules, but in fact increasing trade protectionism measures. WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said: "As long as the unemployment rate is still stuck on such high levels of trade protectionism will continue to exist."

A noteworthy phenomenon is that the new trade protection measures also showed obvious sexuality. The reform of the European Commission through the Generalized System of Preferences, set up more barriers on a range of products and non-reciprocal agreement entered into free trade with the EU countries, the benefits just as Switzerland and the United States and other wealthy countries. No economic partnership agreement signed with the EU in 18 developing countries each year may therefore be a loss of 50 million euros. More than the total amount of the previous eight years in the past four years, the U.S. government against China to the WTO trade litigation in the areas of photovoltaics, motor vehicles and parts, tires, steel. The end of February last year, the U.S. government has also set up a cross-sectoral trade law enforcement center, for countries, including China, the more stringent trade survey. In addition, a number of countries to ease the employment pressure and corporate difficulties, to continue to find ways to limit imports, leaving the domestic market to the local industry, thereby affecting the recovery of international trade; transnational investment for emerging industries of some countries to take a conservative approach, "National safety, industrial interests "as an excuse to impose an unreasonable restriction.

The free trade system after long-term member of the international community, was able to build after the arduous exploration. History has proved, the rule of law, fair, open, competitive, and should be the protection of the economic rise. But now, the founders of the spirit of free trade has become very popular in the arena of protectionism. Those politicians to pursue market-oriented, and the rule of law, should know how to open and free trade can be mutually beneficial and win-win effect, also be clear that the economic and trade cooperation to give itself brings enormous benefits. Unfortunately, the reality, waving protectionism big stick repeatedly exposed the short-sighted!

The beginning of the outbreak of the international financial crisis, there is a lot of insight cries of maintaining a free and open trade policy, do not give the world economy even worse. 5 years later, this voice in the face of reality Poxian helpless, but the international community is necessary to continue to emphasize a consensus, in the era of economic globalization and the selfish protectionist trade policies in fact impossible to truly save their pursuit of a win-win situation. is a wise choice.

See the three major trends of global financial

The global economy with the Department of the change in the situation, the chaos and puzzle, systemic risk has gradually release, but the tail risk of sovereign debt crisis is still exposed to future global financial run three major trends:

     First, the central bank "alienation" to promote the long-term, low interest rates and debt monetization trend

    December 13, the Federal Reserve during the year last meeting on interest rates dropped a bombshell, the Fed announced the expansion of the scale of the asset purchase of $ 45 billion to launch the fourth round of quantitative easing (QE4) monthly purchasing $ 45 billion of treasury bonds instead of twisted action (OT), plus QE3 the Fed monthly asset purchases totaling $ 85 billion, the Federal Reserve has been suffering from a serious dependency syndrome "QE".

    In fact, the Fed endless quantitative easing is the epitome of the central banks in developed countries. The logic of the major central banks in Europe and the United States after 2008, is a re-definition of the central bank and financial relations, this redefined actually allow the central bank to embark on a road "to independence". Observation of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England's quantitative easing or quasi-quantitative easing its monetary policy objectives have been clearly becomes, struggling to maintain the precarious government debt cycle.

The quantitative easing essence of debt monetization. From a global perspective, the government debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to the highest level in decades: AAA sovereign rating worldwide, including the United States, the so-called "security government after another losing AAA rating, the highest sovereign rating camp developed countries, amounting to only a handful. With four consecutive years of more than one trillion mark for the fiscal year 2012, the U.S. budget deficit, the U.S. federal government debt has soared to $ 16 trillion. Over the past decade, the growth in the total size of U.S. debt by 5.3 trillion to $ 16 trillion, more than tripled. The speed of growth to the present day an increase of $ 3.5 billion of new debt, the total debt of the U.S. government in 2015 will exceed 20 trillion mark.

The latest data show that of the European Commission, the euro zone debt ratio in 2011 reached 87.3%, a record high, average debt has reached 37,700 euros. Ireland, Italy and Greece-age workers per capita debt is the highest level in the euro area, were € 55,000, € 48,000 and € 47,000. Although lower than the above-mentioned three countries, such as France and Germany per capita debt but were as high as 40,000 euros and 39,000 euros respectively, are higher than € 37,700 European average.

Look at Japan, is the ratio of total debt to GDP ratio of budget deficit to GDP or national debt dependence, one of the worst countries in Japan are the world's developed countries. The data show that, as of the end of 2011, Japan's total national debt, including government bonds, borrowings and short-term government securities, including a total of 919.1511 trillion yen, breaking the previous record reached twice the GDP. Burden ¥ 7,216,000 per Japanese population.

 Developed countries generally through long-term, low interest rates or quantitative easing way to reduce the debt burden, which embarked on a road of debt monetization, but the central bank alienation trend will bring three major issues: First, the long-term extreme loose monetary environment to cover up a potential balance sheet problems, due to the extremely loose monetary policy to the United States on behalf of the sovereign debt cost at historic lows, lower interest costs of the newly issued debt, which weakened the willingness of the government for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, fiscal sustainability The problem has been delayed, the impact of long-term macroeconomic and financial stability.

The second is a long and extremely loose monetary policy may distort financial markets price system. The long-term bond yields is an important indicator of economic decision-making, artificially lower long-term interest rates and financial market risk spreads massive Treasury purchases distort market signals, resulting in the mismatch of resources.

Is the debt monetization greatly dilute the interests of creditors, resulting in something long-term imbalance in the distribution of wealth. By the end of 2011, developing countries reserve assets amounted to $ 7 trillion, most of these reserves to invest in sovereign bonds in the form of U.S. Treasury bonds or other low-income, equal to the debt financing for the developed countries, long-term debt monetization bound to serious erosion creditors assets and financial interests.

     Second, the international short-term capital flows and long-term capital flow differentiation trend

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, international capital mobility patterns significantly change, not only the factors of cyclical factors, there are structural factors and disturbance factors. Developed countries join forces once again the quantitative easing spillovers begun gradually emerging economies continued nearly a year of short-term capital outflow into a new round of short-term capital inflows. In fact, the situation in the U.S. domestic bond yields lower, the stock market is the second round of the quantitative easing policy favorable advance overdraft, the slow recovery of the real economy, the future, most of the monetary funds by profit-driven commodity markets may flow to higher investment income and emerging market countries, but due to the sovereign debt crisis in developed countries protracted global economic rebalancing process to accelerate, as well as factors such as the reduction of emerging-market rate of return on capital, long-term industrial capital of the emerging economies, massive net inflow situation is facing a turning point.

The medium to long term, the main factors to affect international capital flows are taking place in the trend of change, economic globalization in the past over-consumption and over-borrowing, excessive benefits the excessive export imbalance in the relationship is to be broken: the sovereign debt crisis in developed countries are opening a protracted "deleveraging" process, which will lead to continued reflux of the overseas capital, as the capital-exporting country the United States is "re-industrialization" strategy to accelerate the reorganization of the global industrial chain to promote industrial capital return, the global large-scale capital flows to emerging economies body may be the trend is quietly changed, short-term capital and long-term capital differentiation trend is likely to become the norm.

    Third, the global financial market turmoil will present "passivation" trend

2013 market level of risk compared to 2012 decreased, the relative reduction of uncertainty. European debt crisis dawn, with the official start of the EU permanent aid fund - the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the European sovereign bond market may have been the worst period in the past. ESM can be seen as the prototype of the Ministry of Finance of European unification through the fiscal constraints of the euro zone countries, to achieve the financial transfer payment of the creditor countries of the debtor countries, to achieve the purpose of rescue debtor countries. We believe that to promote banking and fiscal union in Europe is moving in the right direction, but still many differences and frustrations the Eurozone core area and peripheral areas of the economy will continue to differentiate, growth is likely to remain weak. Risk appetite in the short term is difficult to reverse the fundamental, the Fed put excess money supply may be less than the market demand for the dollar, the dollar remains relatively phased strong is a high probability event, limited space for emerging market currencies against the dollar.

In addition, differences in national economic recovery, the spillover effects of the macroeconomic policies of different countries, and changes in capital flows will bring to the global financial markets new adjustment and unrest. Looking forward to 2013, despite the short-term risk is likely to continue, but the big systemic risk has begun to gradually release compared to the extent of the global financial market turmoil in 2011 and 2012, will appear in the "passivation" trend.

RMB appreciated by 0.25% in 2012, the industry is expected this year, or 1.9% appreciation

The last trading day of 2012, the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar central parity reported 6.2855, appreciated by 154 basis points compared to the same period in 2011, the RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the U.S. dollar throughout the year.

2012 RMB exchange rate volatility trend. In the first half of last year, the performance of the RMB against the U.S. dollar soft, even long-term market filled with some of the expected depreciation. However, starting from the end of July, the market reversed, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to gradually strengthened. RMB appreciation pace has accelerated after mid-October, the RMB exchange rate series the breakthrough 6.28,6.27,6.26,6.25,6.24 and 6.23 mark. In November, the RMB against the U.S. dollar in the spot market on a continuous "limit" that touched 1% of the volatility of the ceiling.

Since the 2005 foreign exchange reform, the RMB against the U.S. every year showed appreciation, appreciation of the smallest of the Year in the 2008 financial crisis. Year for market stability considerations, the central bank of the RMB exchange rate linked to the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable against the U.S. dollar and the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar in 2008 was only 0.09%. The data show that, since the exchange reform since 2005, from 2006 to 2012, the RMB appreciation against the U.S. dollar were 6.804%, 6.882%, 3.349%, 0.09%, 3.09%, 5.11% and 0.25% respectively.

Looking ahead to 2013, market participants expected the "wave" will continue to be the most significant features of the RMB exchange rate of the next period of time, close to the equilibrium level of the RMB exchange rate, continue to the sharp appreciation of the possibility has been little. Due to the external market is still brewing many risk factors, the trend of Renminbi is still not a small variable. Royal Bank of Scotland chief China economist, Louis said, taking into account the QE4 (fourth U.S. quantitative easing), as well as central banks in Europe and Japan are said to maintain a loose monetary policy, the 2013 funds will continue to net flows to emerging markets, especially Asian countries, the currencies of the Asian countries also face the pressure of appreciation. Although the medium to long term appreciation of the renminbi is still the trend but domestic factors taken into account, in 2013, the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable, the annual appreciation is expected to be 1.9%.

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