Monday, the U.S. Dow Jones index the fifth day in a row a record high, to close at 14,443.91 points. The beginning of the year-to-date, the Dow has risen more than 10%.
In theory, a country's stock market is a leading indicator of a country's economic growth prospects, the excellent performance of the Dow Jones index indicates that the pace of the U.S. economic recovery is on track, or a lot of liquidity because the Fed hit the illusion?
First Financial (microblogging) Daily "trying to find the answer from the key enterprises in several key industry affect the U.S. economy. Here we have chosen a strong pro-cyclical industry, including finance, real estate, as well as the automotive industry, to spy on whether the U.S. economic recovery confirmed by observing the performance of several major industries in the last quarter.
The recovery of the U.S. banking industry recognition
The Bank is the core of the financial system of a country is considered to be a "barometer" to judge whether a country's economic recovery, because only when the circumstances of people and enterprises with good economic growth expected will increase the size of loans, and the scale of bank lending an increase in the largely means the increase of consumption and investment, is the expansion of economic activity.
In January this year, the major U.S. banks announced fourth quarter 2012 earnings have good news, the U.S. banking industry the arrival of spring:
, JP Morgan Chase, Citibank and Wells Fargo in the fourth quarter of last year, net profit to achieve a growth rate of over 50%; Goldman Sachs over the same period net profit year-on-year increase of 53% qoq increase of more than 11%; less able Morgan Stanley, an increase of 23 % qoq to achieve a 32% increase.
Goldman Sachs the fourth quarter of last year from a profitability point of view, even to the annual net income (ROE) of 16.5%, almost back to the heyday of the pre-crisis level of about 20% of the income; Morgan Chase ROE levels return to 11% ... see This income level, the market marvel usher in another spring, the U.S. banking industry.
The data released on February 26 by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation also confirms the above conclusion. The data show that the sum of the profits of the U.S. banking industry in the fourth quarter of 2012 to $ 34.7 billion, an increase of $ 9.3 billion compared with the same period in 2011, for the 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, strong signs of recovery.
The real estate industry strong warming
The real estate industry has a strong pro-cyclical, but also to predict the economic recovery indicators or industries. During the financial crisis, but also the most seriously damaged industry. Stimulation of the U.S. low interest rate policy, the U.S. real estate market recovery has been ahead of the other departments.
Earnings from the fourth quarter of last year as disclosed data, this signal is also very clear. John Deere is the nation but also the world's largest providers of building materials, because the American people do real estate developers, especially in the housing market is extremely fragmented, so choose John Deere upstream supply company asstudy the subject. John Deere 2012 Four Seasons reported, its business has achieved very good results, net sales rose 14%, operating profit is a record year-on-year increase of 38%.
"This aspect is to benefit from the demand for new housing market, on the other hand prices recovery also led to a rise in raw material prices." John Deere Four Seasons reported. In addition, the company is expected to have better performance in 2013, especially in the first quarter of 2013, they expected the quarter, net sales than last year, an increase of 10% over the same period.
2012 full year U.S. new-sale housing data almost every month in the growth of, annual housing for sale than a year-on-year growth of 10% or more, while the sale in January 2013 to continue in 2012 on the basis of the upstream, January U.S. new home sale volume rose 15%. At the same time, the statistics also show that the U.S. real estate market to the inventory has been largely completed.
Auto giants resurrection
As an important pro-cyclical industry, the newspaper last selected third subject of industry is the automotive industry, and because the automotive industry has a strong pro-cyclical, the second reason is because the car on the American family, the importance of the U.S. economy. The automotive consumption to some extent reflect consumers' expectations of future economic trends, more and more Americans choose car may have more confidence in their solvency after a certain extent.
Ford, for example, Ford's 2012 fourth quarter results, the company in the fourth quarter of last year, won the highest quarterly operating profit since the past 10 years, adequate cash flow, sales volume also hit a new high. Especially in the North American market, Ford North America sales grew 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012. The company's performance in 2013, growth is expected to still optimistic, "profits should remain high in 2012, but the cash flow is more abundant."
The world's largest-selling carmaker General despite mediocre financial data for the fourth quarter of 2012, but its sales in the North American market achieved growth of 3.2% in 2011.
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