Sunday, March 31, 2013

U.S. first quarter of the 20 stocks rose over 100%

Bespoke Investment Group pointed stars stocks in the S & P 500 constituent stocks in the first quarter, a bankrupt airline as well as the two mortgage giants.

20 stocks rose in the first quarter exceeded 100%, American Airlines parent AMR (AAMRQ) the most dazzling, the stock rose 422%! The company has long been seeking to finally get to attempt to merge with U.S. Airways (LCC).

Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae (FNMA) in the first quarter rose 169% to 69 cents. Its sister company, federal housing mortgage company Freddie Mac (FMCC) over the same period rose by 158%.

The two companies rose mainly occurred in March, the U.S. real estate market rebound expected the two companies will be able to return to profitability and repay the assistance of the U.S. Treasury loans.

Facebook Zuckerberg taxable $ 1.1 billion last year

The Facebook listing allowed to Zuckerberg, founder and chief executive officer, has $ 13 billion of paper wealth (calculated based on the current share price), and approximately $ 1.1 billion tax bill.

Zuckerberg's tax bill from last May, enhanced Facebook shares decision. Facebook IPO, Zuckerberg executed stock options to purchase 6,000 shares of Facebook stock price of 6 cents per share.

Zuckerberg not sell these shares in the future, the IRS will consider these stocks as normal income, the reason these options is a start of the remuneration, like wages.

Zuckerberg reported income in 2012, which means that stock options alone this one reached $ 2.3 billion. 2012 apply to his federal personal income tax rate of 35%, and California income tax rate of 13.3%, the two together, Zuckerberg's total tax rate of 48.3%.

Said, "such a high amount usually is capital gains, rather than income." The United States last year 15% capital gains tax, capital gains tax this year has been increased to 23.8% (including tax services firm Moss Adams LLP in the Silicon Valley office partner Toby Johnston Medicare surtax).

To pay such a huge amount of the tax bill, Zuckerberg was during the Facebook IPO sold 3020 million shares, obtained $ 1.135 billion. Facebook said in documents submitted to the regulatory authorities, most of Zuckerberg will sell shares of the proceeds used to pay tax.

Sa Weilin (Eduardo Saverin), another co-founder of Facebook has renounced U.S. citizenship, joined the Singapore citizenship last year. Singapore's highest personal income tax rate of only 20%.

For Sa Weilin, renouncing U.S. citizenship means that you can reduce the huge tax burden. Sa Weilin Facebook announced plans to make this decision for the first few months of the initial public offering (IPO). As investors, the now 31-year-old Sa Weilin by Forbes magazine as one of the world's 20 youngest billionaires. Singapore does not impose a capital gains tax in addition to lower corporate and personal income tax, while not bank interest and dividend taxation.

Obama to encourage the participation of private capital in infrastructure construction

U.S. President Barack Obama, 29, said that the infrastructure for attracting foreign investment and the revitalization of the U.S. economy is crucial, the United States government to encourage private capital to participate in the infrastructure construction investment, to encourage local governments to issue bonds for the construction of infrastructure financing.

The same day Obama said in a speech in Miami, Florida, in the United States, the financial crisis hit the U.S. construction industry, the real estate recovery in the U.S. construction industry has been a significant drop in the unemployment rate, but still higher than any other industry, the new and updated infrastructure directly create jobs, an important factor in the high-speed railway, a state-of-the-art transmission network is to attract corporate investment.

In the context of the unemployment rate is still as high as 7.7%, the Obama administration attaches great importance to update infrastructure to stimulate domestic economic growth, but the government cut public spending led to limited financial resources in areas such as infrastructure. The data show that the White House since Obama took office in early 2009, the United States has more than 560,000 kilometers of highways, 9,656 km of railways and more than 20,000 bridges maintenance and update, but the task is still arduous update obsolete infrastructure of the United States.

The day of the Obama administration proposed to Congress appropriated $ 10 billion to start infrastructure bank, the bank can absorb a large amount of private sector funding, expected up can leveraging of $ 200,000,000,000 private capital to participate in the infrastructure construction. In order to maximize the mobilization of private capital participation, the infrastructure bank in the proportion of investment in any project does not exceed 50%. In recent years, Obama's Democratic administration has repeatedly made a similar proposal, but has not yet agreed to by congressional Republicans.

Obama also proposed to increase the flexibility of local governments in the field of infrastructure construction, and to encourage local governments to issue bonds to attract private sector investment in infrastructure, private capital participation in infrastructure projects can get ownership of the project, while encouraging foreign pensions and other investment institutions involved in the construction of local infrastructure in the United States.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

In France, the number of unemployed approaching 6 year high

The latest data released by the French Ministry of Labour 26, the full number of unemployed registered in mainland France in February qoq increase of 1.84 million people, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year growth of 10.8%. As of the end of February, the number of registered unemployed in metropolitan France consecutive 22 months rose to $ 318.7 million, 319.55 million, which was close to the highest since January 1997.

The number of unemployed, including the semi-unemployed ratio increased 2.65 million to $ 470 million. French Prime Minister Eero announced on the 26th, the Government has decided to set up job centers across the country the 2000 long-term contract jobs.

According to the French National Statistics and Economic Studies predicted that the French economy in the first half of this year will be close to zero growth in the second half of the year is expected modest growth of 0.1%. The fourth quarter of last year, the French economy, decreased 0.3% in the full year of zero growth. Earlier, the French government is expected to last year and this year's economic growth rate of 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively. However, the French central bank expects the first quarter of this year, the French economy growth of 0.1%, will not fall into the situation of two consecutive quarters of shrinking.

For Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), headquartered in Paris, is expected to France's economic growth this year to 0.3%, the employment situation will continue to deteriorate, to the end of 2013, the unemployment rate will reach 11.25%.

UK banking capital gap 25 billion Royal Bank of Scotland topped

Informed sources said that the newly established Financial Stability in the United Kingdom regulatory agencies identified in the UK banking sector £ 25 billion capital shortfall in the two part nationalized banks accounted for 20 billion pounds.

Financial Policy Committee announced on Wednesday that UK banks Total overestimate capital of 52 billion pounds, the agency had the use of a more stringent risk metrics and conducted a review of the balance sheets of these banks, and included in future fines and expected loss. Included in the bank's existing capital buffer capital gap valuation dropped to 25 billion pounds, lower than the earlier concerns of some investors. However, the gap must be filled before the end of 2013, faster than expected.

Most of the concentration of capital gap in the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, the former 82% stake held by the taxpayer, the latter 39% stake held by the taxpayer.

Regulatory authorities that the measures taken by the Bank is currently maintaining profitability, reduced balance sheet, and cut bonuses, has to fill the shortfall of 12.5 billion pounds, half of the total industry funding gap.

Royal Bank of Scotland, according to two people familiar with a net shortfall of nearly 6 billion pounds, Lloyds Bank, compared with less than 3 billion pounds.

These two informed sources added that Barclays's net gap in the third, to less than 2 billion pounds.

Bank of England Governor, Financial Policy Committee Chairman Sir Mervyn • Gold (Sir Mervyn King) said these capital gap does not mean the Royal Bank of Scotland or Lloyds Bank to inject more public funds. In November last year, the British government made it clear that is not prepared to provide more taxpayer funds.

Mervyn also weaken the damage caused by this capital gap. He said: "financial policy committee today to determine the capital gap will not pose a direct threat to the banking system, this problem is completely controllable."

Buffett become the largest shareholder of Goldman Sachs without spending a penny

Buffett again reached the sum of creative financial transactions, the deal is not only favorable to Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) shareholders also benefit counterparties.

He plans to use its 4350 million shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) warrants in exchange for 10 million shares of Goldman stock, which is equivalent to not spend a penny on to become the largest shareholder in Goldman Sachs. Buffett Goldman preferred shares purchased during the financial crisis in 2008 and at the same time to get these warrants, preference shares his annual $ 500,000,000 dividend These preference shares have been redeemed in 2011.

Calculated according to Goldman Sachs, the current stock price, the value of these warrants was $ 1.47 billion.

Buffett stock with warrants for creative Goldman Sachs to avoid the dilution of the equity. Goldman Sachs is now simply additional 2% of the new shares, and if Buffett execute warrants, Goldman Sachs will have additional 9% of the new shares. The reduction in the number of outstanding shares of more help Goldman Sachs to buy back shares.

Yahoo Finance Breakout presenter Matt Nesto, "Buffett has done the pen good business results is perfect for both sides."

The Daily Ticker host Aaron Task, Buffett has fell into financial stocks, "In addition to Goldman Sachs, Buffett also holds a lot of Wells Fargo Bank (WFC) Bancorp (USB) and American Express (AXP) shares his 2008 the year also reached a similar agreement with Bank of America (BAC). "

Task said, "When Buffett declared that the U.S. banking situation has long been never been such a good time, he said his investment in the bank."

However, the U.S. banking industry is not without risk. According to the Wall Street Journal reports, the banks in the world, faced with the financial crisis and the manipulation of interbank offered rate scandal related litigation compensation for the losses.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Spanish economy expected to recover at the end of the year

The Bank of Spain said on the 26th, the Spanish economy to recover later this year, next year will be moderate growth, but the budget deficit will remain around current levels.

The economy is expected to report on the latest release of the Bank of Spain said, as the euro zone's fourth largest economy, Spain's economy will remain in recession, GDP will shrink by 1.5% this year, higher than previously expected by the Government twice. The report analyzes these differences because the country's economic recovery is possible later this year or will be weaker than expected.

Recently, the Spanish economy showing some encouraging momentum, such as the decline in public deficits, long-term government bonds lower risk premium, and increase the confidence of foreign investors. In this regard, the Bank of Spain said the Spanish economy will grow about 0.6% in 2014, strong exports will lead to increase in the current account surplus. At the same time, household debt is too heavy will continue to further curb consumption, working-class may be difficult to benefit from the economic recovery, the average wage declined slightly.

the number of unemployed in France approaching the highest since January 1997

The data released by the French Ministry of Labour 26, for 22 consecutive months as of the end of February 2013, the number of registered unemployed in metropolitan France rising to 3.187 million, which was close to the highest since January 1997 3195500.

The data show that in February this year, metropolitan France registered full number of unemployed increased by 18,400 over the previous month, growth of 0.6% year-on-year growth of 10.8%. The number of unemployed, including the semi-unemployed compared to the previous month increased by 26,500 to 4.7 million.

French Prime Minister Eero 25, 2009, announced that the government decided to employment centers throughout the country to set up a 2000 long-term contract jobs. Eero 26 still in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament) to appeal to "general mobilization" to improve the employment situation in France from all walks of life.

The French National Statistics and Economic Studies, a forecast report released on the evening of 21, the French economy in the first half of this year, than the near-zero growth in the second half of the year is expected to grow 0.1%.

The Institute also confirmed that French gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 fell by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of the year of zero growth. Earlier, the French government's economic growth is expected in 2012 and 2013 respectively set at 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively. The French government has publicly acknowledged this expectation is too high, will be lowered.

Headquartered in Paris, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted that the French economic growth in 2013 was only 0.3%, the employment situation will continue to deteriorate, to the end of 2013, the local unemployment rate will reach 11.25%.

Cyprus central bank suddenly decided to defer the planned re-opening

Central Bank of Cyprus, scheduled to be opened again in the 26th in the evening of 25 suddenly decided to postpone the 2nd. At the same time, in addition to over outside after the two banks of the reorganization "Cyprus" and "Laiki" bank-related businesses will be the 26th start again. This message has been published, but the turn of events suddenly appeared in the middle of the night.

Central Bank of Cyprus for the extension of banking to the 27th issue explained that the smooth functioning of the overall system in order to make banks have to make that decision. The issue of taxation of deposits in the euro zone finance ministers meeting held in the country at the same time, the two sides agreed to reach a consensus and decided that since March 16, in addition to the normal ATM machine business, the bank's other businesses a full cessation. This greatly inconvenience caused to businesses and shops.

Normalization of the weak yen

Before the black boat Leghorn in 1853, Japan was a closed agricultural society, the rice self-sufficiency, the madding crowd. Gen. Perry's arrival broke the previous balance, a night of opening up of the Japanese economy, the need to compete with other countries in the world. When Japan entered the industrialization process, become the soft underbelly of the development of resources and markets.
Japan first spent five years trying to expand the market through war and colonization, to grab resources, this strategy is a complete failure as the World War II defeat. The subsequent four decades, through trade, to seek survival and development of the Road. Postwar global economic prosperity and Japan improved process procedures, the Japanese manufacturing popular in the world, to create a glorious. However, the two oil crises, the global economic boom faded, protectionism, Japan's export-led economic model is blocked, are forced to the sharp appreciation of the yen, on the one hand, to create a domestic asset bubbles, on the other hand, the production line round the relocation. After two decades, Japan's domestic economy is weak, and overseas operation is still considered brilliant. But with the global financial crisis and China's anti-Japanese production line relocation business model is also being challenged, the rise of the emerging economies, but also Japanese abdominal highly enemy. More worrying is the relocation of production lines eliminated domestic jobs, young people can not find jobs, forced to retrench consumption, Japan's economy, the society entered a downward spiral, sink deeper and deeper in the quagmire of recession, no extricate themselves.
In order to break the vicious cycle, from manufacturing jobs to proceed, so that companies are willing to invest, consumers have the ability to consume. The high exchange rate, which is in fact difficult to do. Certainly in the exchange rate to jump out from the death trap it a shot. In this sense, said that after Shinzo Abe, do not do other Japanese politicians will do sooner or later, just as Abe economics a little more crazy.
The the crazy Abe select a crazy black Tianzuo central bank governor, let a show more spectacle, more suspense. Kuroda past critics of Japan's monetary policy, and its powerful position on the exchange rate and the Ministry of Finance background is bound to make Abe stare inflationary policies will be adhered, the Bank of Japan is likely to be the quantitative easing policy in the next few years the world champion.
Abe, Kuroda QE policy has not been substantive action, but the short-term effects are already visible. The sharp depreciation of the yen, the stock market hit record highs, improved corporate earnings, even as consumer confidence is also enhanced. Local real estate market started to rebound in commercial property prices, domestic funds, overseas funds have been pouring into the housing market, seek yen asset reflation (re-inflation).
However, the core issue of the Japanese economy did not rise in asset prices, Abe popularity high and substantive solutions. Still lingering economic downturn, ambitious over-investment of the funds of the speculative color color, the aging of the population, insufficient domestic demand imprison illness is not in addition to, discourage business investment.
In addition to the monetary / exchange rate policy, Japan needs structural reforms need to eliminate economic barriers to break the inertia in the policy. This leads to the constraints of interest groups, and mostly from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Employment generation can only be re-created from the manufacturing sector, which requires stable political / policy environment, the need to improve the long-term demand outlook also need an ongoing profitable exchange rate environment. For businesses, a moderate, stable exchange rates is even more important than the drastic devaluation. I believe that after a drastic devaluation of the Japanese government hope that the normalization of the weak yen. Over the past two decades, the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar hovered between 75-95; over the next decade, the yen range may be between 95-115.
The depreciation of the yen, the United States recognized that hard to do, the White House was surprisingly silent. Abe's exchange rate policy through quantitative easing, so the same QE hard to occupy the moral high ground. The same time, the United States believes that the recovery of the Japanese economy, and good for the global economy and U.S. strategic interests. U.S. dollar itself has been completed by the devaluation of the appreciation turned weak yen is relatively limited economic recovery in the United States have been at impact. As long as Congress does not appear fierce protests, the U.S. government against the yen "moderate" devaluation tolerant attitude.
The long-term impact of the weak yen on Japan's economy depends break the the enterprise hold out inertia. A large number of Japanese companies sitting on huge amounts of money, but are not optimistic about the economic outlook, reject Investment Industrial. The inflation expectations whether money into the real economy, create employment and support consumption, still uncertain of the number of. The aging of the population, nor eliminate barriers to production line outside innovation capacity decline.
Weak yen in overseas capital markets is bound to bring more liquidity to boost financial asset prices, continue to be of the yen carry trade liquidity supply source. For the real economy, a weak yen may constitute impact on the manufacturing outsourcing model, will make regional free trade agreements become more important.
The weak yen also increases the risk of the Japanese economy. Due to the closure of the nuclear power plant, Japan's structural trade deficit, the depreciation of the yen so that the cost of energy imports surge, the trade deficit nearly doubled. The yen devaluation policy to disorderly risk of violence derogatory increase. Furthermore, the Japanese government debt and deficits are at high-risk state, once inflation will make the significant increase in the cost of the issuance of treasury bonds, the JGB market crash risk is also high.
Nevertheless, driving down the yen the Japanese government's attitude is very firm, weak yen may be normalized, QE might normalization. If this is the case above, the Japanese house prices will rise.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Japanese media said the yen devaluation prices surge daily personal consumption or Mengyin Ying

Result in import prices in recent months, the yen continued to depreciate, usher in a wave of price increases in Japan in the spring of 2013, prices have added to the brand-name goods from food, electricity ranks. March 25, Japan's Kyodo News pointed out, the Abe government's economic policies succeeded in reversing the yen from rising, and has brought tangible benefits to the export enterprises, but undoubtedly increase the pressure for household expenses. Personal consumption cast a shadow, probably will be a drag on economic growth, the policy of the Japanese government operations will face a test.

"I'm sorry, prices ¥ 50 April." In early March, a popular ramen shop in Tokyo's ticket machines posted this announcement. The Government of Japan (2508, -7.00, -0.28%) unified resale price from April 1 average price increases of 9.7% major flour company was forced to pass the cost of the imported wheat. Its impact is expected to be expanded to bread, pastries and frozen food industry.

The of the imported soybean (4844,4.00,0.08%) and canola (5289, -5.00, -0.09%) Origin poor harvests and the depreciation of the yen, while high prices, the Company will be closed from April 1st Nissin OilliO. Families edible oil increased by more than 30 yen per kilogram, the price increases is expected to be around 10%. Collard food company from May 1, 16 varieties of canned tuna of the major commodities price increase by 2.2 to 6.1 percent range.

Japan Polyethylene Corporation since March 21, the price of the raw material of polyethylene bags of supermarket plastic (10,435, -155.00, -1.46%) raised by about 7%. Plastic bottles products use the same raw materials are also expected to price increases.

Due to rising fuel cost of crude oil and natural gas, such as coal-fired power standard household electricity bills of 10 power companies in Japan in April than in March rose 24 to 131 yen. The four city gas company will also raise prices of 72-104 yen. Also apportioned in May tariff designed to promote renewable energy universal costs, the national average will rise to 33 yen.

Kansai, Kyushu Electric Power will be held in May after approval to raise prices by about 10%, Tohoku Electric Power and Shikoku Electric Power planned July price increase of the same magnitude. In addition, high gasoline prices, household expenditure increasing pressure.

Premium brand merchandise famous jewelry brand Tiffany decided that some of the goods on average 10% price increase from April 10 onwards. Some overseas hotel and ticket prices are also rising, the the Rakuten travel agency official said, are worried about the number of visitors will reduce.

A large food company, said the price competition is fierce, some manufacturers do a good job by cutting costs to cope with the psychological preparation, but Japan's economic regeneration to play with Akira Amari said, enterprises blindly cut profit margins and wages and salaries will weaken spending power. He said prices is also compelling.

Takeshi Minami, chief researcher of the Research Institute of agriculture and forestry in gold if prices continued, household expenses will be suppressed, will have an adverse economic impact. Enterprises have an urgent need to raise wages, profits back to the workers.

The EU new or forcing large deposits in bank bailouts

Barnier said, according to the draft of a new EU law, the future of large deposits without insurance coverage may be asked to participate in the rescue of the bank's internal (Michel Barnier), EU Commissioner responsible for financial regulation, which is the future of the EU to solve the bank problempart of the plan.

Reuters reported that Barnier also pointed out that deposits of less than 100,000 euros in savings will not be affected. € 100,000 insurance claims based on EU law, the European Union up to bank depositors. Therefore, the so-called "no insurance coverage for large deposits" means deposits more than 10 million euros over the part.

According to the agreement reached in Cyprus with the EU Troika on weekends, the country's second largest bank, the National Bank of the part of the more than 100,000 euros deposit will be forced to participate in the banking industry bailout, this part of the money of the depositors almost wiped out. In the market view, such a move is tantamount to "rob a bank to rescue the country's financial system.

Monday night, the President of the Eurogroup, the finance ministers of the Netherlands Dise Blom to Reuters and the Financial Times pointed out that Cyprus could become a template for other countries had to restructuring the banking sector, the necessary insurance coverage of deposits can be used "internal relief. His remark, the market began to highly worried that other countries may also be playing the idea of the deposit, the U.S. stock market on Monday morning, fell, Europe / U.S. dollar exchange rate fell to a level pending the resolution of the Cyprus crisis, the German government bonds prices hit an intraday high. Cyprus, the two stock markets tumbled as investors worried about the heavy debt problems in Spain, Italy may be "learning".

A few hours later, the Dise Blom's office issued a clarifying statement: Cyprus is a special case, and the unusual challenges facing the country needs to deal with the way we negotiated Sunday, macro-economic adjustment program for the amount of Cyprus tailor-made, do not use models or templates.

The IMF intends down U.S. economic growth is expected to

The IMF has been disclosed in a draft report, IMF plans to cut the growth of the U.S. economy this year is expected in the next issue of the Global Economic Prospects report, released in mid-April on the grounds that the tax and expenditurecut increased.

Reported that the new outlook, the IMF expects the U.S. economy will grow 1.7% this year, lower than January is expected to grow by 2%; expected that next year the economy is expected to grow 3%, flat with the previous forecast. In early March of this year, the U.S. government $ 85 billion in spending automatically reduction plan started, economists generally expected that this will have a negative impact on U.S. economic growth this year.

The report also said the IMF will also the growth of the global economy this year is expected to slightly from 3.5% down to 3.4%, Japan's economic growth forecast from 1.2% to 1.5%, and is expected to 2014, Japan's economy will grow by 1.1 %.

It also shows that the euro-zone countries, the IMF economy is expected to remain unchanged this year is expected to contract by 0.2% next year, an increase of 1%.

Monday, March 25, 2013

Hot property market in the United States: former Treasury Secretary SELLING week that dispose

U.S. housing market is hot? Ask Timothy Geithner. Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury just hang out in the asking price $ 995,000 house in Bethesda, Maryland, has just launched a week, to find a buyer.

Week rushed to get rid of

According to to housing intermediary RedfinCorp website, Geithner rush to sell the house in Ogeden Road, has four bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, with a total area of 2537 square feet (about 392 U.S. dollars / square foot).

This property is listed time is March 14, but now have to find a buyer. The room is currently playing contract, while covering some of the attached conditions, but which does not include the buyer must wait until the conditions traded own houses to sell to.

Geithner this house was rushed to sell, compared to four years ago, but look quite different. In 2009, Geithner want to sell the Niu Yuexi red special county house, but the delay could not find buyers, the final only to be let.

"Daily Economic News" reporter found that access to information, since 1999 to date, Geithner this house has a total appreciation of 149%, the initial price of less than $ 400,000, while the same period the S & P 500 index return was only 27%.

In fact, with the United States improved job market, coupled with the mortgage interest rates continued to remain low, a strong rebound in demand is the tight housing stock. The Re / MaxRealtyServices Mark? Pot Rumsfeld said "sell our own housing stock is not enough, is common to several groups of people rushing to buy good houses often sold soon."

Rapid price rebound

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) disclosed, in February, U.S. existing home sales rose 0.8% to 4.98 million units, the fastest pace since November 2009. In a month ago, new home sales rose to 437,000 units, the highest since August 2008.

It is worth mentioning that all existing home sales in the southern and western performance. A family, in February, the southern and western sales ring growth in more than 160%. By state building permits in January year-on-year performance of the best, including Alaska (115%), Oklahoma (110%), South Dakota (68%) and Kansas (63 percent).

Data compiled by Bloomberg, in January of this year, tracking 20 large cities in the United States, the S & P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 6.84 percent, the fastest since August 2006. 22 Bloomberg survey of economists expected, the indicators will be an increase of 7.85% in February (in value).

Improving job market is an important cause of the hot housing market, the U.S. unemployment rate in February was 7.7%, the highest the lowest in almost four years. The Fed had previously promised to return to below 6.5% in the unemployment rate and inflation expectations rose to 2.5%, not raised its benchmark interest rate before. This is likely to herald ultra-low interest rate environment will continue to stimulate the market rebound.

British media: the euro-zone economy has been hit hard, the good momentum of the development of emerging economies

Currently, shrouded in the U.S. and European economies over the "cloud" has not yet dispersed, the economic growth of the emerging economies of the Western media once let emotion. Reuters reported on March 24 that, regardless of the the Cyprus financial crisis ended the difficulties facing the country are once again show that the rich countries are still suffering from the financial crisis hit the weak links in the global economy. In contrast, emerging markets appear not only stronger, and more continue to contribute to global economic growth.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said the worst case of Cyprus was forced to withdraw from the euro zone, the breakup of the eurozone would dampen investment, may make the economies of the euro zone four trends in the period 2015-2020 the average growth rate is reduced by one. percentage points. They think that, in that case, Germany's trend growth rate may drop to zero.

In the euro zone policy makers are still struggling to maintain the euro full BRIC summit to be held in Durban, South Africa,

The leaders of the BRIC countries will meet to consolidate the foundation of economic growth in emerging markets. Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management department pointed out that Cyprus chaos after the convening of the BRIC summit, which summarizes the changes in the global economic landscape.

Reuters pointed out, the global data also shows that the developing countries are relatively strong vitality. The Citigroup economist disclose the volume of trade between developed economies fell by 6% in the past four years, a 38% increase in trade between emerging economies.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Japanese media shocked: Abe made unprecedented concessions in exchange for a senior official to visit China

Japan's Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso plans to seek talks with the the Xi Jinping President and Prime Minister Li Keqiang's visit to China in April. If this visit, since last August Senkaku Islands (Chinese name: Diaoyu Islands) nationalization, Japan's top government leaders to visit Beijing.

    The news that the Deputy Prime Minister Aso's visit to Beijing by the opportunity to attend the meeting of the Japan-China Financial Dialogue. Aso is also the finance minister, he will be co-chaired a dialogue meeting with China's newly appointed Finance Minister Lou Jiwei.

   Japan-China Financial Dialogue meeting this year is the fifth time. Japanese government relations sources said, the main topic of the meeting of the dialogue is to strengthen the bilateral relations in economic field, promote the development of strategic and mutually beneficial relations.

   The Japanese government plans to seek the improvement of relations between the two countries held in May of this year in South Korea, Japan and China and South Korea summit, Prime Minister Abe and Premier Li Keqiang's separate talks. Prior to this, the Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso's visit to Beijing, and held a series of talks with China's top leaders, is considered the pre-warm-up to prepare for Abe? Li Keqiang talks.
 
Japan's "Sankei Shimbun said on March 21, since September 2012, the Japan Coast Guard has started to released to the Japanese fishing retreat advised" to Japanese fishing boats to see the Chinese official boat in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands cruise , be sure to withdraw from the 12-nautical-mile. This discouraging people order caused the dissatisfaction of the Japanese media, "Sankei Shimbun" 22 editorial called this "Ironically, the security policy, saying the a MEPC practice of" justified ".
 
According to Japanese government sources, after the implementation of the Diaoyu Islands "nationalization" policy since September 2012 the Government of Japan Noda, 11 District the MEPC Hall Naha MEPC headquarters several times to the Japanese fishing boat given advice, asking them not to stay long at 12 nautical miles . Have accurate knowledge of the number of release discouraging people make, but it does more than once released a similar command, the Japanese naval Paul Hall, officials said.
 
Reported that the Chinese official boat larger than the volume of the Japanese fishing boat, the Japanese side that the Chinese vessels cruise is likely to endanger the safety of the Japanese fishing boat, the Chinese official boat may also arrest a Japanese fishing boat, in the exercise of jurisdiction over the Diaoyu Islands and surrounding try to restrain him make the decision to release the Japanese fishermen.

"Sankei Shimbun pointed out that the day MEPC Office advised precisely caused a significant cause of China official normalized cruise ship in Japanese territorial waters, and can only say" satirical strategy to ensure the safety of the Japanese fishing boat. Their vessels within their territorial waters "released backoff advised, this is rare, the Japanese naval Paul Hall cadres also said that" this kind of thing previously never.

    Analysts believe that strong indignation in China, Japan, Abe Cabinet being re-evaluate the seriousness of the situation of the Diaoyu Islands, and targeted to make a concession to China, and this has been reported Aso's visit to China.

U.S. House of Representatives approved a Republican Balanced Budget Act

The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday (March 21), was approved with 221 votes in favor, 207 votes against the bill proposed by Republican Congressman Paul Ryan to achieve a balanced federal budget in the next decade.

Initiated by Ryan bill requires $ 4.6 trillion spending cuts over the next decade, and the complete overthrow of President Barack Obama led the Health Insurance Reform Act of 2010, the creation of an optional premium support system for supplementary medical insurance project, allowing originally elderly people benefit from health insurance insurance on their own.

This group is very different from the bill and the Senate proposed a competing bill, and therefore nearly impossible to get approved by the Senate and into law.

EU to raise the price, Cyprus worse

MNI, the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund has just increased assistance to Cyprus, the price tag, the original requirements of the country and lend a helping hand to raise 5.8 billion euros, has now increased to 6.7 billion euros, the German Stock Exchange under the command of the market information provider. Cyprus has been mind-boggling to raise 5.8 billion.

Troika pointed out that the original request is built on top of the conditions at the time, but now "the situation has deteriorated, the two sides reached agreement must be reflected in this.

Previously, Cyprus is ready to start "rob banks"-style self-help, and strive to raise 5.8 billion euros of funds to prevent the ECB in next Monday off for the country's banking industry lead to the country's financial collapse.

The Associated Press and a number of media reports that the Government of Cyprus to prepare the second largest lending bank Laiki the major surgery restructuring, Laiki over a large part of the insurance deposit may be direct government confiscation of more than EUR 100,000, while 100,000 the part below the euro may be handed over to the country's largest bank, Bank of Cyprus, but this is not the whole story.

The Cyprus banking officials estimate the above reorganization will help the government to get 3.6 billion euros, 5.8 billion euros to meet a large part of the funds required, while the remaining 2.2 billion euros will be absorbed from the Bank of Cyprus Deposit taxed from Laiki turn savers € 100,000 then have been grilled skin.

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Britain will reduce corporate taxes to boost the economy, inflation target remained at 2%

According to the British "Financial Times" reported, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne yesterday released the annual Budget April 2015 enterprise tax will be reduced to 20%, lower than the current government came to powerwhen 28%. He fine-tuned the task of the Bank of England, the central bank to come up with more monetary activism to help stimulate economic recovery, but he did not change the inflation target of 2%.

These adjustments, as long as inflation remains controllable, policy-makers can give priority to economic growth. This gave rise to the following possibilities: the Bank of England's future will be based on growth, employment and inflation conditions for how long to maintain the exceptionally loose monetary policy to provide guidance.

Osborne said: "The years of accumulated problems will not be solved easily, need to make painstaking efforts to correct past horribly wrong."

Britain's austerity plan is currently in its third year, the plan is designed to address the ever-widening budget deficit and reduce the debt of the public sector and the proportion of national income, but almost no growth in the British economy in two years. Official oversight bodies - the UK Office of Budget Responsibility yesterday sharply lowered economic growth expectations, adding that the scale of borrowing will be higher than the expected 3 months ago.

The agency is expected in 2013, the British economy grew by only 0.6%, lower than the expected 1.2% in December last year. It also growth in 2014 is expected to be reduced from 2% to 1.8%. The agency said Osborne will be until 2017-18 will begin to reduce the ratio of debt to national income than the original commitment to the two-year delay.

Osborne said he would not take "through increased borrowing to reduce borrowing" this "gamble" practice. He insisted that the British currency radicalism, fiscal responsibility and supply-side reforms to fix the economy and public finances.

Osborne also announced to support the housing market Help to Buy program. Under the scheme, the Government will provide new housing to provide 20% of the interest-free loans. He promised to provide £ 12 billion of government guarantees for deposits lack of buyers.

Japan or push loose monetary policy, experts said the yen influence small

Former governors of the Asian Development Bank Haruhiko Kuroda yesterday became Japan's central bank governor, he set a military order first Shinzo Abe front, to achieve the 2% inflation target in the term, but in order to achieve the inflation expectations, the new monetary easing will essential. If the further depreciation of the yen relative to other major currencies, the Bank of Japan may increase the practice of currency water incur international discontent, and even set off a new "currency war".

The other hand, domestic by developed economies continue to introduce monetary easing, renminbi continuous appreciation gradually decreases, the price advantage of foreign trade. Not long ago, the central bank responsible person also said that China is prepared to deal with international currency war preparation. Will China be pulled into the "currency war"? How to protect their own interests?

Xu Hongcai [microblogging], the China International Economic and Exchange Center, China is neither necessary nor possible to join the currency war. Xu Hongcai, we now need to focus on their own problems, not to be led by the nose. Currency war it is not necessary to overstate the grounds that the degree of internationalization of the yen itself is relatively low, it is not a highly influential international currency, and it maintains a loose monetary policy, the main purpose is to solve their own to ask - long-term currency crunch, weak economic growth.

Xu Hongcai, from 1993 to 2012, the the yen average annual inflation growth of only 0.2%, which is a very big problem. Increase the money put in the yen may be devalued, but to promote Japanese exports may increase imports from a certain sense, this is beneficial for the global economy. In addition, Japan's 2% inflation target is unlikely to be realized, because of Japan's weak economic growth the main reason is the aging of society, resources and frequent industrial hollowing own real economy, not currency caused. Currency over promote economic growth and I am afraid that will be greatly reduced.

Xu Hongcai, we should focus on the monetary policy of the United States, because of the large spillover effects of monetary policy in the United States, may be a result of commodity prices, emerging economies, inflation and capital flows are greatly affected.

Xu Hongcai the face of the complex international situation, China should calmly deal with to maintain the independence of their own policies, our goal is to solve the problem of domestic economic growth and inflation, to ensure stable and rapid economic development of the monetary and credit, as well as social reasonable scale of financing needs have moderate growth; Second, should unswervingly promote market interest rates and the exchange rate market-oriented reforms, and steadily push forward the opening up of the capital account. The most important thing is to further encourage financial innovation, to develop the venue derivatives and financial derivatives. In addition, crude oil (92.90, -0.60, -0.64%) futures should also be introduced, as well as the securitization of credit assets to expand and further promote the internationalization of the RMB. In short, the blacksmith still need its own hardware.

The 10 years war in Iraq caused the United States in difficult

March 20, 10 years ago, the U.S. and its allies began to embark on a comprehensive bombing Iraq. April 9 easy Gongke Iraqi capital Baghdad, on May 1, U.S. President George W. Bush announced Iraq completely overcome. Following in countless guerrilla warfare collected, and small-scale actions, the capture of Saddam Hussein in December of the same year, and later put to death.
   10 years have passed, all calculations, the U.S. military death toll of more than 4,000 people, more than 30,000 wounded soldiers, more than 20,000 workers are subjected to a variety of injuries. The deaths of the Iraqi people for more than 17 million people. U.S. military spending 10 years, nearly $ 800 billion, plus the marathon war in Afghanistan, the expenses of the United States a total of 2 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for one seventh of the U.S. GDP in 2010.
   In addition to direct losses, the impact of the United States in the international rapid decline. George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Bunai Er, not only by the vast majority of people questioned and dissatisfaction in the international community is condemning a.
   First, the United States without the consent of the UN Security Council, and a British and a few other countries, declared war on Iraq, which is an internationally recognized illegal war launched World War II with Hitler and the Japanese Emperor nature is the same, only the size of a country only just.
   Second, George W. Bush and Bu Naier intentional use of false intelligence, I have to say that the anti-nuclear and chemical weapons in Iraq, which is a powerful excuse for them to the invasion of Iraq, the only reason they get the domestic public support. But 10 years later, nobody Iraq to exist 'cloth' said the weapon. So Bu Naier been various surveys in the United Kingdom, eventually dropped to the face of the country, the British do not want to let the truth out there, so it did not Bu Naier to take any legal action.
   George W. Bush's reputation in the United States is also greatly reduced, however, in the United States, as long as the next stage, even warmonger, but also let the matter rest.
   George W. Bush attacked Iraq for U.S. hegemony psychological. September 11, 2001, bombing of the skyscrapers in New York, Americans must be dry by Osama bin Laden and his leadership of the Taliban, began a large-scale invasion of Afghanistan looking for Osama bin Laden at all costs, did not expect the 10-year time, was killed in Pakistan.
   It should be said, the superior military capability of the United States, while launching the basis of the three wars in 10 years, including the war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. And, eventually, the United States wanted to get rid of the three characters: Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden and Gaddafi, in full to get rid of. Such a large-scale war, and replaced with any other country, are impossible.
   This is powerful. However, the United States pay for the high, in addition to a lot of expenditure, as well as the expenses of the late war, the dominance of the United States is facing severe challenges.
   First of all, the world financial crisis in 2009, the war with the United States and the fight against terrorism are inseparable. In fact, the subprime crisis itself is not terrible, terrible endless war and security risks. Britain to some extent quilt inside. Although Britain is only played a very small role of mutual aid, in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq inputs, they become the last straw that breaks the camel's back. The British did not dare report the impact of war on the British economy, however, the expenditure of tens of millions of pounds a day, an economic zero growth in the country what it means? Who investigated into the deep, can get some idea.
   Mainly by the United States, Western powers and the biggest nightmare, is not the world financial crisis is not a direct military expenditure of the three wars of aggression, but the world economy is another change occurred in the past 10 years: that is, China, India the rapid rise of the four BRIC countries of Brazil and Russia and rejuvenation.
   China in the past 10 years, the spate of more than five of the seven major Western powers, plus the last century has been more than Canada, of the Chinese economy in the world rankings into second place. Without the United States launched such a long war, not the world economic crisis, China dream impossible to catch up so fast. In 2012, China has become the world's largest commodity trading power, trade accounts for 11.1% of the world, twice as high than it was 10 years ago. GDP accounted for 12.7% of world GDP, compared with 4.3% in 2001, but also turned nearly tripled.
   India and Brazil are rapidly rising, 10 years later, the world's top six economies, including China, India and Brazil will.
   Of course, despite the strength of the BRIC relative level greatly improve the overall strength, as well as the strength of the per capita basis, the gap with Western countries, there are 5 to 10 times. However, due to the large population base in China, India, Brazil and Russia, their rapid rise has made Americans feel the pressure of another inexplicable.

Three dimensions to see the recovery of the U.S. economy

Recently, the prospects for the dollar, the market has been more discussion. Catalyst that triggered this discussion, it is within the Fed about the dispute before the end of the year, ahead of the end of QE. However, we will find and then dig deep layer the recent steady U.S. economic recovery momentum is the Fed discussions ahead of the end of the asset purchase, the market began to look forward to the root cause of the appreciation of the dollar. Therefore, the assessment of the kinetic energy and sustainability of the economic recovery in the United States, to predict the Fed's next policy deployment plan asset allocation in the context of the U.S. dollar, has a very important significance.

So, how to evaluate the kinetic energy and sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery?

Analyzes from three dimensions: First, not only to look at the total GDP, but also the GDP constituted. This can be judged, and government departments in the trap sub, or the private sector added leverage. Second, is to not only look at the economic growth, but also the improvement in the employment situation. Employment is a lagging indicator of the economy, but the improvement in the employment situation is a necessary prerequisite for further economic growth. Especially for private consumption accounted for seventy percent of the total economy. The third is to not only look at the current policy response, but also the future of the policy space. Certainly make economic policy one o'clock at full speed to take bubbling, lack of stamina but the policy also will make the economy their true form.

Look at the first dimension. U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economic autonomy significantly enhanced growth momentum. Revised GDP in the fourth quarter of last year, annualized growth of 0.1%, the worst performance since 2009. Reduced government spending and private inventory investment to reduce drag on the economy, 1.38% and 1.55%, respectively, is a major promoter of economic contraction unexpectedly. However, the former may be affected by the automatic spending cuts mechanisms worries tired on government spending even more timid; latter data volatility has always been to wait for further correction value out then observed.

However, we should not be the U.S. economy is about to fall into recession "appearance intimidated. Private consumption expenditure, especially private fixed-asset investment rebounded significantly. Private fixed-asset investment to pick up, possibly marking the U.S. private sector deleveraging process has been completed (U.S. corporate credit markets since the second half of last year, the outstanding debt balance accounted for a smooth recovery in GDP, slightly lower than the current 53%). U.S. economic growth baton gradually turned to the hands of the private sector from government departments, the dependence of economic policy stimulus is reduced accordingly. In late January FOMC meeting statement, the Fed believes that the current economic stagnation is mainly affected by temporary factors, significantly alleviate the fears of the U.S. economic downturn. It can be said, it is an eye-catching performance of private consumption and investment in fixed assets to the Fed to eat a "reassurance". The private sector needs stronger maximum characterization of the U.S. economic recovery, the fundamental relying on sustainable recovery.

Look at the second dimension. In recent months, the U.S. job market can be used after the storm there is always sunny "to describe. Less than expected number of new non-farm employment in January, November and December last year, the number of new non-farm employment has substantially increased. In February, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States sharply rose to 23.6 million, and the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since December 2008, 7.7%. The past four months, the United States average monthly increase of about 205,000 non-farm jobs, this release is a very positive signal. The more high-frequency 4-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment benefits has dropped to less than 350,000 (the empirical observation that, if the first time jobless claims stabilize below 375,000, it shows that the employment needs of the job market is strong, the future The unemployment rate will continue to decline). These are evidence of a recent issue of the Federal Reserve Beige Book Fed judgment on the momentum of the job market to expand at a moderate pace.

Therefore, to say that the U.S. job market is deteriorating a bit exaggerated, but at present, improved slow and limited only. In fact, the United States has moved from the "jobless recovery" degenerated into a "jobless recovery" stage. Moderate expansion in employment will certainly boost household consumption, and further leveraging corporate investment, essential boost to the U.S. economy. The concern is that the the January Fed minutes released last week, there is a very significant changes in policy tone that significant improvement in the job market is no longer a necessary condition of the Fed's exit open QE. This is also from the side, employment lagging economy, but a positive impact, the Fed has been more sober and objective cognitive

From view last one dimension, we need not worry too much about the policy of economic constraints. U.S. fiscal policy contraction than the market expected to moderate, the adjustment of monetary policy may be more than the market expected to be flexible.

Monetary policy, the Fed mainly through the timely adjustment of the size and composition of asset purchases, or even just publish tendentious remarks, to deal with the short-term ups and downs in the economic data. Recent U.S. economic data is less than ideal, the the Fed pace again accelerated expansion table is an example. In the two weeks ended February 20, the Fed's total assets increased by nearly $ 80 billion, including holdings of mortgage-backed securities of $ 67.9 billion. The fundamental policy adjustments (such as termination of open QE), at least to greatly ease fiscal policy uncertainty will only become a reality.

Fiscal policy, on the end of the U.S. House of Representatives passed a temporary delay in the motion of the U.S. debt ceiling, the two parties in the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations have made positive progress. However, disputes between the two parties from actually will bring a severe shock, and transformed into the potential impact of several times a lesser extent. Automatic deficit reduction mechanism in March this year, officially opened the new fiscal year in April Budget vote, the U.S. debt ceiling again peaked in mid to late May, these events are being or will impact on capital market nerves. But we do not have to worry too much about the less the impact of the red mechanism automatically. This is because the automatically within the next decade, the deficit reduction plan and not substantive weaken the massive federal government spending (automatic deficit reduction amount for the fiscal year ended September 2013, only $ 42 billion, accounting for only U.S. GDP 0.26%), on the other hand on monetary policy because the Fed will take precautions to avoid the "lame duck" macro-control. Therefore, the automatic deficit reduction mechanism about to restart, but the probability will be presented in the form of a "shrink version.

   In short, the U.S. economic recovery is steady, persistent guaranteed. Such assurances from: the private sector is finally beginning to add leverage after going through a long and painful deleveraging; momentum changed and the job market to expand at a moderate pace, further helpful leverage private sector plus ongoing; shrunk version of "automatic deficit reduction mechanism for discretionary monetary policy will limit the magnitude of the government departments shrink leverage.

    The steady recovery of the American economy the Chinese economy will be affected? A critical conduction chain is clearly visible: the steady recovery of the U.S. economy the → (Fed ahead of the end of QE) → appreciated against the dollar → Chinese capital outflows accelerated → RMB assets shrink. This conduction risks seem rather distant, but in fact imminent. And fourth quarters of last year, China's capital account deficit had been a warning signal.

Maybe we'll be optimistic to think that the U.S. economic recovery, China's exports will improve naturally reduces the negative impact of the dollar appreciation on China's international balance of payments. In other words, the current account improvement might offset the contraction of the Capital Account. We are familiar with the Sino-US economic prosperity, a loss for both the pattern may be changed. In order to solve the structural problems of the U.S. economy, and re-seize the commanding heights of the global technology innovation, the Obama administration has been sparing no effort to implement to revitalize manufacturing strategy. If this strategy is successful if the U.S. economic recovery spillover effects on the Chinese economy will decline. In addition, China has in fact taken is pegged to the U.S. dollar's exchange rate system, enough institutionally flexibility in the exchange rate. Once the United States embarked on the road of a strong dollar, the RMB effective exchange rate may be forced to appreciate. This will damage the competitiveness of China's exports, the systolic pressure facing the current account.

New trends to revive U.S. manufacturing concern, the RMB is forced to follow the dollar risk worthy of attention. Steady economic recovery in the context of the U.S., the risk of deterioration of China's international balance of payments and its challenges to monetary policy, may be a significant variable in the evolution of China's macro-economic situation this year.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

The resurrection of the financial and real estate of large U.S. companies strong warming

Monday, the U.S. Dow Jones index the fifth day in a row a record high, to close at 14,443.91 points. The beginning of the year-to-date, the Dow has risen more than 10%. 

In theory, a country's stock market is a leading indicator of a country's economic growth prospects, the excellent performance of the Dow Jones index indicates that the pace of the U.S. economic recovery is on track, or a lot of liquidity because the Fed hit the illusion? 

First Financial (microblogging) Daily "trying to find the answer from the key enterprises in several key industry affect the U.S. economy. Here we have chosen a strong pro-cyclical industry, including finance, real estate, as well as the automotive industry, to spy on whether the U.S. economic recovery confirmed by observing the performance of several major industries in the last quarter. 

The recovery of the U.S. banking industry recognition 

The Bank is the core of the financial system of a country is considered to be a "barometer" to judge whether a country's economic recovery, because only when the circumstances of people and enterprises with good economic growth expected will increase the size of loans, and the scale of bank lending an increase in the largely means the increase of consumption and investment, is the expansion of economic activity. 

In January this year, the major U.S. banks announced fourth quarter 2012 earnings have good news, the U.S. banking industry the arrival of spring: 

, JP Morgan Chase, Citibank and Wells Fargo in the fourth quarter of last year, net profit to achieve a growth rate of over 50%; Goldman Sachs over the same period net profit year-on-year increase of 53% qoq increase of more than 11%; less able Morgan Stanley, an increase of 23 % qoq to achieve a 32% increase. 

Goldman Sachs the fourth quarter of last year from a profitability point of view, even to the annual net income (ROE) of 16.5%, almost back to the heyday of the pre-crisis level of about 20% of the income; Morgan Chase ROE levels return to 11% ... see This income level, the market marvel usher in another spring, the U.S. banking industry. 

The data released on February 26 by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation also confirms the above conclusion. The data show that the sum of the profits of the U.S. banking industry in the fourth quarter of 2012 to $ 34.7 billion, an increase of $ 9.3 billion compared with the same period in 2011, for the 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, strong signs of recovery. 

The real estate industry strong warming 

The real estate industry has a strong pro-cyclical, but also to predict the economic recovery indicators or industries. During the financial crisis, but also the most seriously damaged industry. Stimulation of the U.S. low interest rate policy, the U.S. real estate market recovery has been ahead of the other departments. 

Earnings from the fourth quarter of last year as disclosed data, this signal is also very clear. John Deere is the nation but also the world's largest providers of building materials, because the American people do real estate developers, especially in the housing market is extremely fragmented, so choose John Deere upstream supply company asstudy the subject. John Deere 2012 Four Seasons reported, its business has achieved very good results, net sales rose 14%, operating profit is a record year-on-year increase of 38%. 

"This aspect is to benefit from the demand for new housing market, on the other hand prices recovery also led to a rise in raw material prices." John Deere Four Seasons reported. In addition, the company is expected to have better performance in 2013, especially in the first quarter of 2013, they expected the quarter, net sales than last year, an increase of 10% over the same period. 

2012 full year U.S. new-sale housing data almost every month in the growth of, annual housing for sale than a year-on-year growth of 10% or more, while the sale in January 2013 to continue in 2012 on the basis of the upstream, January U.S. new home sale volume rose 15%. At the same time, the statistics also show that the U.S. real estate market to the inventory has been largely completed. 

Auto giants resurrection 

As an important pro-cyclical industry, the newspaper last selected third subject of industry is the automotive industry, and because the automotive industry has a strong pro-cyclical, the second reason is because the car on the American family, the importance of the U.S. economy. The automotive consumption to some extent reflect consumers' expectations of future economic trends, more and more Americans choose car may have more confidence in their solvency after a certain extent. 

Ford, for example, Ford's 2012 fourth quarter results, the company in the fourth quarter of last year, won the highest quarterly operating profit since the past 10 years, adequate cash flow, sales volume also hit a new high. Especially in the North American market, Ford North America sales grew 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012. The company's performance in 2013, growth is expected to still optimistic, "profits should remain high in 2012, but the cash flow is more abundant." 

The world's largest-selling carmaker General despite mediocre financial data for the fourth quarter of 2012, but its sales in the North American market achieved growth of 3.2% in 2011.

Expert: horse meat scandal is only a start

Horses and cattle meat "scandal broke out a month ago in the UK grow bigger and spread to 16 countries of the European Union, and a variety of beef products, food has always been strictly regulated EU greatly humiliated. Horse meat scandal is only the beginning, the next crisis may pull more outside the EU suppliers.

Month since the European part of the beef food doping the horsemeat incident has ignited controversy spread to 16 countries of the European Union, the food supervision departments of France, the United Kingdom, Sweden, the Netherlands and other countries has commenced an investigation. Yesterday, the agriculture ministers of the EU member states held an emergency meeting in Brussels to discuss how to deal with horsemeat storm. After the parties reached a consensus that if the horse meat, hamburger or other food product identification should be marked.

So the final nail is still very sloppy, along with a dazzling horse meat scandal behind intricate supply chain, since the multinational regulatory agencies have not been able to sort out a clue.

Although there is no information to the horsemeat charge the beef threats diners health, but this constitutes fraud is undisputed fact. Quality inspection departments in the UK can only be filled prior to dereliction of duty on the part of the lesson. On the evening of the 12th, the police raided two suspected horse meat to beef-processing slaughterhouse, Prior to this, the the British Food Quality Agency (FSA) for this closed a slaughterhouse in West Yorkshire; Wales a meat processing plants. These suppliers are beef burgers and skewers of raw materials for the United Kingdom.

The most recent data show that, in fact, over the past three years of sampling, the British beef meat shown to contain some kind of horse will only be used anti-inflammatory drug. In 2010, 60 samples, five the monitoring out such anti-inflammatory drugs; 2011 79 samples contain only a trace of anti-inflammatory drugs; However, last year, 158 samples, there are nine samples containing such anti-inflammatory agent.

Take this storm, Sweden's leading food suppliers Findus fire. They proved to be 100% in the French market for many years, "beef lasagna horsemeat system, the Frenchman said it could not accept.

When the French food suppliers acknowledged to may their beef products last year was horsemeat "pollution", the British may have to eat horse meat for many years. "Beasts of burden meat incident has challenged the British psychological limits, eating conservative British side firmly believe that pets eat horse meat and eat cats and dogs like nothing different; side was curious to inquire worth a pound of horse meat in the end.

There are several topics recently become a hot spot in both France and the United Kingdom:

Which horse meat and beef delicious?

United Kingdom (France) children should not eat horse meat, because we do not do this.

Cheap meat in the end worth?

The economic recession, how can we both savings and eat healthy?

In aspects of frozen fish Roubang "is very famous Findus with horse meat to make lasagna, which makes eating has been critical of Frenchman out of anger, they create many Findus version of the ad on Youtube, one is a" next step our fish Roubang is dolphin meat do.

For horses and cattle meat scandal intensified, professor of supply chain management at Cass Business School in London ManMohan Sodhi exclusive Sina Finance, said: horse meat is only a beginning, "beef frozen food crisis from the United Kingdom to the whole of Europe next will continue to spread. "

He believes that now is most likely to occur if the scope of the investigation is extended from beef to other meats, such as chicken, fish, there may be more scandals. That time, suppliers may not only limited in the scope of the EU, which may involve Argentina, chicken, or Canadian fish, and even Asian suppliers were swept also unknown.

Why hang Ngau Tau sell horsemeat?

Supermarket in the UK, the price of fresh beef at least 8 pounds (about 80 yuan) per kilogram, the price of the cheapest Tesco beef for £ 3.34 / kg, which should also beef burgers or spaghetti the Major raw meat. If you made the two beef products, also need the pasta with the cheese, butter, and Hamburg with bread and meat surface. Additionally, the cost of labor and logistics have not calculated the period.

However, the actual frozen food price how much? Before the meat of cattle and horses shelves Hamburg box 99P (less than 10 yuan), containing 12 beef burgers; Findus Beef Lasagne £ 1.29 a box (equivalent to 3 pounds / kilograms). Contrast, the price interval unlimited widening of the British food market, a box of fresh finished spaghetti in the high-end supermarket usually sells for 6 pounds.

"In the low-price competition from supermarkets, cheap supermarket discounters, as well as in the high-end supermarket are all facing price pressure consumers to their pressure is passed to the vendor in this price range, the supplier increasingly slim profit margins, to making profits or at least to maintain price competitiveness is bound to come up with heterodoxy in the transfer process of the price pressure, do not have the financial resources to put into quality control aspects. "Cass Business School Supply Chain Management Professor ManMohan Sodhi said on Reuters.

"I have visited in China, a microwave oven manufacturers, they microwave price of £ 50 a each sell a microwave oven, they gross profit of 10 pounds in this price range, they want to know is impossible also funds investment in quality control. Buyer knows it. "ManMohan Sodhi said.

"Recession make the situation worse, because the consumer price sensitivity increase, but anyway, consumers should ask yourself, do you think you should eat: a hamburger price 10P (less than RMB 1 million) What's the beef? "ManMohan Sodhi asked.

Parties to pass the buck of horses and cattle meat scandal

Situation evolution this point, consumers angry brand food manufacturers anger, anger retailers and government regulators, suppliers, vendors, said "I am innocent". Wrangling with each other between the multi evolution in this month more and more dramatic.

In the limelight waves, Swedish food company Findus French meat supplier Spanghero prepared in respect of the product logo beef was horse meat scandal for judicial complaints. Sweden the Findus frankly, "Last year, does not know any beef pollution problems doped horse meat", after also known as the "pollution" problem may be traced back to last August; Findus general manager in France, (Matthieu Lambeaux), Blue Wave then released a statement saying: "We were deceived," adding that the meat supplier to sue Romania.

In short, the two companies are trying to find someone to bear the sins and performance than snow pure.

"In the field of economics, there is a concept called either reasonable passing the buck '(Plausible deniability), intuitive understanding" after the possibility of shirking its responsibility for this concept, ManMohan Sodhi explained: "retail commercial suppliers can have two approaches: either regulatory quality; unconditional trust them either. Too much pressure in the competition, many retailers choose the latter, because this is the cheapest way. '

In this scandal, we are talking about the entrance of food, cheap frozen food, the shelf life of food is usually at least for several months, which dragged out Zaichou Mao Yin has been involved and create a smart phone Suppliers similar complexity.

The supply chain can be infinitely stretched. This is the root cause of the scandal, the assumption is fresh meat, due to the shelf life of only a few days, you want to 'hang Ngau Tau sell horse meat' is not easy. "ManMohan Sodhi said.

Delay not to be found in the "culprit" under the parties are innocent of the status quo, the United Kingdom has academia can only begin to reflect on processed foods. Or the British should not henceforth count on frozen foods, and other processed foods, but should be back to nature, anything made themselves. The problem is, no one can spend £ 1 to make 12 beef burgers, no "horse meat", after some low-income groups, it is difficult to afford fresh beef. This is reality.

Economist: happiness, with revenue growth and enhance

We childhood education money can not buy happiness, the old saying is "are in the fortunate". In fact, perhaps the really good old days gone, will be aware of money, perhaps not happiness. 

Three economists in the United States: Daniel Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers late last year released a research report: the degree of happiness with the upgrading of the salary increase. They found a large number of questionnaires, assuming your salary doubled from 10 million to 20 million, and your satisfaction with life is also doubled. And so on, this doubling effect will continue. 

Conclusion of view, that is to say: in the same country, rich people than poor happiness at any time higher; rich countries (per capita GDP) nationals than countries with low per capita GDP happiness high. The most incredible, wealthy, and happiness will always be related to this associate degree in academia seems no one has yet found the upper limit to appear. 

The theory of this American release, provoked British resonate. Yet to fall into a deep worry about a "double dip" in the UK, their money attitude free. The major media are often doing some happiness trivial "summary, including the the rainy day Lanjue lover kissing, these happy little things, is seen as not cost much. However, according to the dream into reality. When the wallet shrink, gluttonous luxury loved TV cooking show the "thrifty do the dishes" alternative; pension problems started to threaten the British Tahitian vacation retirement plan should be changed to Scotland, the British may want to ", as money for little, free and easy does not it. 

Beginning last year, the British have always thought that their wages decline, more tragic, wages fell, the price is also high. This is true. According to statistics, last year, the average wage of the UK private plate only enhance 1.4%, while the retail price index as an indicator of the inflation rate is 3.1%, which is equivalent to wages not only did not rise, but rather has shrunk by 1.7%. Does not reach a certain level of economic growth, but also did not pay up, people are getting poorer, the the National Happiness sense also fell.

"We all know that money can not buy happiness? 

Wrong. Money may not buy to love, but not buy happiness. 

"Money is the sixth sense, do not have this sense, we can not enjoy the first five." 

Began flooding the online reviews similar to those described above. During the recession, the importance of money began to be referred to the unprecedented height. 

The relationship between "money" and "happiness", the population not open around the University of Southern California economist Richard - Easterlin (Richard Easterlin), he is the "academicians" (National Academy of Sciences Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences), is the figure of happiness economics dean. In his view, the role of money, or can be "happy farmer and tragic millionaire paradox" to the phrase summarizes. 

Easterlin Paradox (Easterlin Paradox) 1974 Argument: the relatively wealthy more meaningful than absolute wealthy. For example, an annual salary of one million pounds of investment bankers may not be an ordinary worker happiness than General Motors, because you just had a new home decoration, found the neighbor than you have money, they also installed a swimming pool. 

Easterlin 2008 for Americans lifelong happiness curve of a research report, found that the well-being of Americans peaked in the 45-50 years age range: Before this interval is a gradual the process of rising, after this interval is the process of a gradual decline. This curve, known as the Easterlin rainbow-shaped happiness curve. 

These two studies seem to prove that the happiness of the high-income people may be less than the well-being of low-income populations. For example, in the developed countries of the economy, people's happiness is usually with the growth of per capita income rise to a range until the per capita income growth. For example, per capita income rose from $ 5,000 to $ 10,000, happiness with income growth; revenue growth of more than $ 10,000, and the upgrade of happiness is not related. 

Three American scholars, "the more money, the more happiness" theory; Easterlin the happiness of Relativity, are just happy and standards to determine the angle. As academia has been recognized by the concept of "happiness" is too difficult to quantify, but some of the factors contained touches questionable. 

United Nations in April last year, over one hundred "happiness report" for similar "What is happiness," this issue has made more fair comment: On average, rich people are happier than the poor, but the wealth is not happiness The only factor. For example, in a country, the lack of anti-corruption mechanisms, social support, and will weaken the people's happiness. 

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate will obviously reduce the degree of happiness, mainly because of reduced income, rather than because of anything else. 

More interesting, although the life of high-quality and well-being to enhance directly related, but the United States is indeed a special case in the past 50 years, the average quality of life of Americans in higher, but happiness is no way to follow up. Not only that, in the United States and the United Kingdom, the trust also fell. "Do you believe that someone picked up your wallet will be returned to you" this problem is to respond to, the Americans and the British have no confidence, but rather in Denmark and Italy, the countries of the European continent, a sense of trust still enhance. 

Another point is certain: whether it is in the United States, Europe or Asia, a stable and happy marriage and family life can bring happiness, it is not money directly related.