The competitive devaluations damage world economic recovery

Since early 2012, repeated and spread of the debt crisis seriously affected the euro-zone economy, need strong impact on other economies outside the global economic slowdown. The face of the grim situation, in order to stimulate economic growth, starting from the third quarter of 2012, the United States, European Union, Japan and other major developed countries have taken prices easing and quantitative easing monetary policy to increase the money supply to the market, trying through devaluation to stimulate the economy, but the result of competitive currency devaluation has not changed much in the country's economic growth of the developed economies, the unemployment rate has not decline. Strong spillover effects of monetary policy in developed countries, the proliferation of competitive devaluations caused liquidity, on the one hand to push up the international market commodity prices, on the other hand by the outflow of capital into emerging market economies, giving rise to the emerging markets the countries with economies in asset prices turns up and facing the heavy imported inflation pressure, a serious impediment to the healthy growth of the national economy of the emerging economies, which have a negative impact on global economic recovery.

German "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" on the 18th of this month, the German Central Bank President Weidmann was quoted as saying that monetary policy is not a panacea to solve all the problems, the competitive devaluations are no winners. Indeed, from the effect of exchange rate changes, competitive devaluations, and direct intervention in the foreign exchange rates, currency devaluation effects section will cancel each other out, the effect of stimulating exports is limited, the negative impact if implemented in all countries, easily lead The country's foreign exchange reserves and the money supply has increased substantially, rising asset price bubbles and the potential inflationary pressures. Therefore, the competitive devaluations are not able to promote the recovery of the global economy, but the world is awash with liquidity, asset price bubbles, the potential of increasing inflationary pressures, the foreign exchange market is more volatile.

Although developed countries with economies in the long term, frequent introduction of competitive devaluations is drinking poison to quench thirst, unsustainable, but the vast number of developing countries, especially the emerging economies, competitive currency devaluation caused harm can not be taken lightly.

The world has entered the era of competition for survival "financialization" multipolarity change with national survival trend of increasing competitive pressure, the financial monetary means to become more and more developed countries to shift the crisis in the world economy, to stimulate the economy growth, safeguarding the economic and financial hegemony normalized financial means of competition for survival, these means including quantitative easing, the manipulation of exchange rates and interest rates, competitive devaluations, debt monetization of monetary policy measures. It can be expected that once the devaluation of the currency of the United States, Japan and the euro-zone countries from the independent behavior becomes a universal phenomenon, the entire world monetary system will be linked to the shock, and accompanied by increased uncertainty in developing countries, including China, will pay excessive self-interest monetary policy for the United States, Japan and Europe.

On the 16th of this month, finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Twenty (G20) in Moscow issued a joint communique to "resolutely resist the competitive devaluations to oppose all forms of protectionism". Obviously, the participating parties have recognized the dangers of competitive devaluations, but if the world's major economies can not be taken consistent action and specific measures to resolutely resist the competitive devaluations communique statement will only be empty talk

Difficulties and problems facing the world's long-term economic recession, the world should strengthen the coordination of macroeconomic policies, to take resolute and effective concerted action, and resolutely resist all kinds of excessive self-interest of competitive currency devaluation, countries should focus on domestic consumption and investment The increase, to take effective measures to stimulate the economy, to contribute to the recovery of the global economy.

Detroit reduced to the most miserable city facing bankruptcy

The world famous "Motor City" Detroit because of the high crime rate and the unemployment rate both population outflow coupled with the financial crisis and the risk of bankruptcy, "Forbes" magazine as the most miserable city in the United States in 2012. In last year's rankings, Miami was rated as the most miserable city in the United States. Detroit alternative to the status of the Miami this year, and more than Chicago and other "most unhappy".

Forbes reported that Detroit is a serious problem, and 40 years, it is reduced with the decline of the U.S. auto industry and synchronization. Detroit is facing a serious financial crisis and the risk of bankruptcy, and its financial affairs is likely to be the state government took over. In addition, New York in this ranking tenth, the main problem is the cost of living is too high. New York has the highest income tax rate in the United States, and the longest average commuting time (36 minutes).

Detroit also includes $ 14 billion in long-term liabilities, including the urgent need to be completely resolved. But almost no one expects the federal government will be a helping hand extended. Detroit population dropped from 180 million in recent years to 70 million. Also will reduce the city's tax base. Behind these departing figure, left the city filled with foreclosed homes, high crime rates, it is difficult to provide basic services and to fulfill pension obligations. If Detroit really filed for bankruptcy, is the largest in the history of local self-government application for bankruptcy, more than Alabama's largest city, Birmingham, Jefferson County, where, in the county in 2011 filed for bankruptcy, liabilities of $ 4.23 billion.

U.S. political journal "Congressional Quarterly" subordinate "Congressional Quarterly Press January 23 announced the rankings of the most dangerous cities in the United States, Detroit, St. Louis and Oakland ranked in the top three of the" crime capital ". 1970s, the homicide frequent, Detroit began to be considered the "capital" of the homicide, has been among the highest crime rates in cities in the United States.

The Fed or end quantitative easing, the price of gold fell below $ 1600 1 ounces

Quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve Board of the United States, the market weakened, coupled with a stronger dollar bearish gold (1569.10, -8.90, -0.56%) transactions, the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures prices on the 20th continued to drop, closing price fell below $ 1600 an ounce mark.

The same day, the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures market is the most actively traded gold futures price for April delivery closed at $ 1,578 an ounce, higher than the previous trading day down $ 26.2, a decrease of 1.63%.

Market analysts said many traders estimated that the Fed may be slowing down before the end of 2013 or the end of the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy, the Fed will announce later on the 20th January monetary policy meeting minutes, so gold intraday The pressure drop, the closing price hit the lowest level since the end of July last year.

Recently, gold continued to fall, many analysts assert that the gold market has ushered in a "death cross", means that the long-term gold bull market will end, may be faced with a wave of the next bear market. However, some analysts do not agree with this view. In addition, the U.S. dollar the day strong bearish gold trading. Measure of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currency exchange rates, changes in the dollar index rose to 80.76 from the previous trading day's 80.45 near.

The same day, the price of silver futures for March delivery fell 80 cents to $ 28.622 per ounce, down 2.72%. Platinum futures prices for April delivery fell $ 50.4 to $ 1,647.1 per ounce, down 2.97%.

Intesa Sanpaolo Bank CEO: 20% of Italian companies will go bankrupt

Enrico Cucchiani, CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy's second Dahon Bank (Intesa Sanpaolo), said in an interview on CNBC on Wednesday, with the impact of recession, 20% of Italian companies will go bankrupt.

Cucchiani, said: "Italian enterprises in the top 20% revenue growth over the past three years, between 35% to 50%, but the other side, unfortunately, the bottom 20% of enterprise revenue declined by 35-45% so obviously unsustainable. "

He said that a wave of corporate bankruptcy influx of Italian banking sector will have a negative impact. He said: "This will be exacerbated by the non-performing loans, banks are very reluctant to give this company the loan and I think this is not the availability of funds, but the problem of risk selection."

The latest data show a decrease of 0.9% in the fourth quarter of the Italian GDP qoq.

European rift

As the "East Road continents", Davos of each year will have several major European dignitaries the various royal prince and princess cheer. Some of them votes, some publicity for the country's image, some to negotiate Merchants.

At the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos last year, and talked about Europe, that is, one can do nothing. A year later, almost everyone in the fortunate: the euro is still! The joy of this kind of relief, like escaped the end of the world "is so heart luck, more hopeful for the future of Europe.

CEIBS Associate Dean - John Quelch (Quelch, John A.) Professor the Sina Finance enumerating the last year, several major European hero, for example, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, IMF Managing Director Lagarde German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario - Monty (Mario Monti). In Quelch, above several have formed the "international team" to rescue the euro, not only last year completed a remarkable task, some getting better means.

This year, several of the hero, the "spoiler" British Prime Minister David Cameron this scene. And as usual, everyone who anyone is not of one mind.

In the EU, the United Kingdom has always been a "bad boy", although the results are still useful, but often smaller share some candy spoiled playing splashed. This year, Cameron is officially down the gauntlet to the EU from London hurried to Davos, the people not to give Europe a large negative. His EU referendum ', within five years, the British will whether from the EU official vote. Market that such events is unlikely, even if only a gesture, enough that the European continent, as well as Americans headache. Nowadays the EU, the euro area account is not settled, but also for taking the time to respond to the threat of an important economic and financial center of the departed.

Cameron before leaving for Davos once the British have done so some vindicated: we have the basic characteristics of an island that is independent, straightforward and passionate defense of the sovereignty.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel continent temperament is very obvious and island characteristics "Cameron, she often played, jumping on Europe, rather than Germany. Merkel's played every year to look forward to, does not seem to her, there is no artificial European target strategy set the tone. She is not Lagarde, in the description of the problem in Europe, can not be evasive.

Merkel in Davos last year, has been stressed that lessons learned from the economic crisis in Europe, because the time of the euro zone at risk, "the economic crisis has left Europe with scars, still can not be eliminated. She stressed: European countries to economic growth and structural reforms to grasp with both hands. The reform is a prerequisite for growth. Compared with last year's heavy Merkel obvious relax a lot, so her keynote speech at the Davos did not like last year, a rallying call for European unity cheer. Instead, her speech gave some Germans that "not enough passion.

Merkel's speech keynote this year: All in all, there is no reform, no growth, not competitive. And last year, said no big changes. In her statement last year, she was actively looking forward to carry out reform in those countries, such as Spain, Italy and Greece, and some have not yet started to do, and some do not go far enough.

Merkel's remarks was echoed objections.

Ireland there are scholars from the real estate bubble burst in 2008, Ireland after beginning to take a proactive fiscal expenditure reduction policies, this year is likely to return to market financing channels. So to get the final results, adhere very important.

The depths of the debt crisis of the Italian people for this issue of the reform is always some reluctance, or that their reform is conditional, for example, the euro bonds. This is Merkel resolutely not agree.

The Monty regarded with the Davos Annual Meeting of opportunity to lay the groundwork for themselves in the upper House Election in February. So, reading between the lines Passes a "campaign" of gunpowder and incendiary. He thanked the Italian support for his work in the past 14 months, in addition to, intentionally or unintentionally, "without naming names," stressed the former Berlusconi Italian economy almost limited collapse; another "without naming prick the Merkel , made it clear that the only fiscal spending policy is not enough to solve the debt crisis, but many Nordic countries do not understand.

Monti called for the market to believe that the single currency of the euro; also appealed to the United Kingdom not to leave the EU, very some European Big Brother style, can not be the German gesticulating.

"In the past many years, Italy are living in an illusion, that we are committed to change, but it will not do any substantive reform." Monti said.

Monti rescue Italy at the edge of the cliff, which is an undisputed fact, but he has announced his resignation, which appears in Quelch "because telling the truth, so the the Italian bombers go."

"Italy is a typical country poor and rich people, and national private wealth is one of the best in the world and in this country there are some famous brand, the fairly ideal company of their own industry, and some operators Italy Business mode with slight modifications, could revive the obnoxious little difficult but rather Spain, only 9% of this country's industrial proportion of GDP, to revive the competitiveness of some difficulty. "Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Global CEO Wittig ( Martin Wittig) on Reuters analysis says.

With Monty or Angela Merkel and Cameron, former French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde neither with the campaign, more reluctant to pull the euro zone's war of words, she would prefer to say some of the economy is expected this year, Asia the importance of short-term economic analysis even skip, jump directly to 2025.

In fact, the problem is more complex in France. Sarkozy made frequent appearances in previous years and often have different amazing speech this year, France's new president took office on the much-debated Hollande did not even attend. But could see the French heavy sense of crisis, the French finance minister, the man combat had to use every opportunity to voice. Today, France has not too much mind to talk about the "European" problem, because 75% of heavy taxes on the French rich still continue to lose, this mess has not yet packed.

Russian pension reform difficult to test the water

Russian Federation Pension Fund the main Drozdov (Антон Дроздов) has said that Russia has 12 million retirees (some say 32 million), the federal government will start in the next few days in order to better serve the retirees, 2013 pension reform program to increase treasury funding, pension reform overall is 30% higher, and that up to 12,000 rubles (Russian average retiree pension equivalent to $ 400). 2012 Russian retirees monthly pension of an average of less than 9000 rubles (equivalent to $ 300).

Drozdov said, the real purpose of the 2013 pension reform in Russia, is that the balance of the pension fund budget, is the first step forward to reform the social security system.

A Russian pension reform program goal is to go up by 6.6% on average since February 2013, pension is about 350-370 rubles (equivalent to U.S. $ 11.6-12.3), the disabled 340 rubles (equivalent to 11.3 U.S. dollars) ; second phase of reforms beginning from April 1, 2013, pension increase of 5.1% on average monthly pay increase of 5.5%.

In 2013, the monthly pension of veterans of Russia, the average go up to 2,500 rubles (equivalent to 83.3 U.S. dollars), 2014, will be increased to 2,600 rubles (equivalent to 86.6 U.S. dollars). The amount of pension, in 2013 for people with disabilities to go up to 2000 rubles (equivalent to 66.6 U.S. dollars), will be increased to 2,100 rubles (equivalent to U.S. $ 70) to 2014. In addition, the Russian Ministry of Finance in 2013 for people with disabilities will also allocate 15.6 billion rubles (equivalent to 5.2 billion U.S. dollars) configuration rehabilitation equipment and devices.

Russia's pension system is facing a double crisis in urgent need of reform: First, nearly half of the workers in Russia drifted away from the national pension system, the national school-age workers is 87 million, but only 48 million into the pension fund system, the number of. Moreover, the Russian pension enjoy by age 5 years younger than the minimum pension enjoy in other countries of the world; Second, in June 2012, the Russian Ministry of Finance disclosed pension reform launched in 2013, the The losses of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation will be up to 86 billion rubles ($ 2.86 billion) equivalent.

Sources with the issuance of the Russian pension, There are two types of ways. In 2002, the office workers to feed non-office workers, deducting a certain percentage of income from every office worker into federal pension funds. In the pension system, the state does not play to pay pensions role, but merely played the role of pension allocation. After 2002, Russia is to change the pension system, the use of personal reserves and national mixed issued. 2012 Russia provides 22% of the workers of every income required reserves left to cover the pension fund, of which 16% for maintenance retirees, 6% for individual retirement reserves.

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Nesterenko (ТатьянаНестеренко) thought, due to the state pension fund deficit, the government had an additional budget for the National Endowment. The pension fund deficit because the person purchases a pension fund can not be re-invested appreciation, leading to serious shrinking of the national pension fund, the ratio of 16% of the pension is not enough reimburse retirees may need to be increased to 22% in order to meet the demand. The end of 2012, Russia's total pension accounts for 2% of GDP, and is rising at an alarming rate.

Pension reform, the first to ease the financial pressure on the federal retirement fund. Nesterenko want employers to find ways to improve the working conditions of workers, and to reduce the possibility of early retirement. Russian Ministry of Labor has also proposed to extend the life of the workers' retirement, the means of austerity retirement fund.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister admit of Goro Jieci (ОльгаГолодец), there is a profound crisis, the Russian pension system reform is imperative, and is currently in the stage of "crossing the river by feeling the stones", the outlook remains unclear. Russian Minister of Labour Tuobi Lin (Максим Топилин) also acknowledged that the Russian pension reform is in the internal and explore mode, external consulting experience in the trial period. Extremely difficult for the Russian government, to promote the reform of the pension system, the current reform program is not yet mature, and there are numerous flaws.

The recovery in the United States: immigration reform to help the recovery of the U.S. economy

Andrew from Mexico Cupertino, California City, a neighborhood households are aware of the gardener, mowing the lawn, fruit trees and flowers a week for three households here. Andrew's hand built good results more fruit trees, the tree is also beautiful; remove the twigs, California Rose successive flowering, employers liked him. But we all know Andrew cash to be charged to the customer to avoid tax, immigration status, he has yet to get.

Jose in the home of a Jewish businessman doing housework Explorer the fine dexterity live good decoration houses, dressing furniture, businessmen bargain buy houses After trimming of Jose a new look, and furniture made by ordinary logs after his polished look than brand-name products are exquisite. Jose without legal residence status, can not guard the checkpoint reunion then to the United States in Mexico, his wife and children.

The US-Mexican border in San Diego American friend once joked Whenever you run fast enough, you can Mexico Cabanatuan ran into the borders of the United States. Mexicans good at growing fruit and flowers, building and repairing homes, it is suitable for the warm climate of California residents living needs.

Similarly, in the United States near the other end of South America, Miami, Florida, known as "the capital of South America, home to a large number from Honduras, Cuba, Colombia, South America, people. A taxi driver once told the author from South America long as stowaways in South America can swim to the U.S. border, touch to the border line, you can not be repatriated to stay in the United States, even if the border army. But the problem is not legal in America identity, they can not pay taxes, the establishment of bank credit, and can not legally work, not to mention the right to vote.

In terms of Chinese students, after graduation, want the United States is also a headache problem, especially in the case of the poor economic situation, employment cold case. The United States is the first destination of the Chinese students, nearly 200,000 Chinese students in 2012, accounting for 1/4 of the U.S. Agency for International students. After the economic crisis, the 25-year-old American college students an unemployment rate of 8.5 percent, and even find a job, but also facing the starting salary cut. Employment is so difficult, not to mention the Chinese students to remain in the United States, have to find H1B (work visa)?

After the U.S. presidential election, the successful re-election of Barack Obama immediately after his inauguration on Tuesday proposed draft law on immigration reform, is intended to provide the 11 million illegal immigrants the cooperative residence of ways, in order to fulfill his presidential election promises. 11 million illegal immigrants, the vast majority of Latin Americans, they had before the election, publicly appealed to Obama - "Give us legal status, we give you the ballot!" Tuesday Obama election in Nevada Las Vegas to do immigration reform speech, but also because Obama won the election in Nevada, played a decisive role in the support of Hispanic voters.

And surprisingly, Republicans this is not only no objection, and also the first to step Obama immigration reform plan announced Monday, attitudes, and before the general election compared to differ materially. The reason is very real in the general election, the Republican Party lost a lot of Hispanic people, leading to the outcome of the people against the lost world ".

As Senator McCain said in a television program on U.S. immigration policy is an important factor in the Republican defeat in last year's presidential election. Republicans in the general election lost the support of Hispanics, and they once Republican heartlands. In last year's presidential election, on behalf of the Democratic Party, President Obama won 69 percent of the Hispanic vote, while Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won only 29 percent of the vote.

Although overwhelmed by the practice seems the Republicans very "belated", but for the 2014 mid-term elections and the 2016 presidential election preparation, the Republican Party must fully adjust immigration policy to re-win the support of Hispanic voters, otherwise, the people of Latin America in 2016 Obama just remember to fight for them in the hands of the votes. Even Schumer also conference undisguised announced: "This is the first time that oppose reform will be more political risk."

Powerful role in promoting economic recovery Obama strongly promote immigration reform. As early as in 2011, Obama said, "fix the immigration system for the 21st century in the United States economy, immigration reform will help strengthen the competitiveness of the United States in the global economy."

Obama remark is not groundless, U.S. Secretary of Education Duncan recent calculations: the United States by 2018 there will be 2.6 million high-skill jobs need the "Dream Act" for young immigrants is expected to generate $ 1.4 trillion to 3.6 trillions of dollars in economic benefits and reduce the budget deficit of $ 1.4 billion.

Meanwhile, according to U.S. immigration experts Hinojosa - Ojeda forecast, to promote the legalization of illegal immigrants and legitimate workers in the next 10 years, the U.S. economy increased by $ 1.5 trillion effective for annual economic growth to enhance 0.8 percentage points.

Bipartisan immigration reform announced in the draft law are proposed legalizing illegal immigrants need to be registered to the Government, back taxes, pay a fine condition, U.S. economists believe the housing market will improve sales, increase taxes, and help to reduce the budget deficit. The United States to restore manufacturing process requires a lot of low-wage labor, and by the high level of education of immigrants will fill this gap.

Immigration Reform Bill will also retain and attract with science, technology, engineering and math backgrounds, locked objects, including the foreign students to American education, as well as overseas high-tech talent, as many in America work the gospel of high-tech talent.